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Analytics

Why Markets Don’t Always React to Big News: A Baking Analogy

“It was already baked into the market reaction.” It’s something we at Marketplace, and other business news journalists, say when big news happens and the markets don’t seem to care.

But why not?

“I would say that the analogy to baking, when we talk about ‘baked in’ is pretty appropriate,” said Sasha Indarte, a professor of finance at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School.

It’s a bit on the nose, but stay with us. Once all the ingredients are mixed together and the cake is in the oven, what’s going to come out when the timer goes off is already decided. It’s baked in.

The market works kind of the same way. Once news — or more accurately, anticipated news — is incorporated by stock market traders and other economic decision-makers, the news isn’t really new when it happens.

“For example, when the [Federal Reserve] makes its announcement about monetary policy rates and the path of monetary policy going forward, we don’t always see a big market reaction,” said Indarte. “Sometimes mortgage rates or stock prices don’t move a whole lot.”

Take the analogy just a hair further: When markets don’t move a whole lot on what otherwise would be big news, it means Wall Street has a pretty good recipe for what the future market is going to look like.

“What are the ingredients here? That would be the data that would be things like job reports, the latest inflation numbers,” Indarte said.

Right now, traders are baking in the January jobs report, the latest consumer price index, the personal consumption expenditures price index, and tons of other data points they might use to, say, take a guess at what the Fed is going to do in March at their next interest rate-setting meeting.

And all those ingredients taken together? When mixed, they make a forecast. And that’s kind of like the batter, Indarte said. So long as they get the batter right, when the Fed announces interest rates, there’s not going to be a big market reaction.

But, as anyone who’s baked can probably relate to, sometimes you get the batter wrong.

“If we forgot a crucial ingredient, maybe if we overlooked house prices, then our cake might fall flat,” Indarte said.

Get the ingredients wrong or leave one out, and what comes out of the oven might be a surprise. It happened at the beginning of the pandemic: Nobody had an emergency interest rate cut on their list of ingredients in March 2020, and traders reacted with extreme volatility.

But there’s nuance, too. Sometimes it’s not that you’ve got the wrong ingredients, it’s that the measurements aren’t right.

“You could have the same people looking at the same information, but if we can’t agree on how to put that information together, if we have different narratives about the significance of the jobs numbers versus consumer sentiment and so on, we can come up with different forecasts,” Indarte said.

And lately, between government shutdowns that have delayed the release of data reports and staffing cuts at the very agencies that produce those reports, we’re kind of just eyeballing the ingredients.

“If you don’t have a complete recipe — maybe you have all the right ingredients in front of you, but you don’t know the proportions,” said Indarte. “You might have had a chance to get to the right recipe, but if you’re if you’re missing maybe the knowledge or skills in order to get there, then it might not work out.”

That’s all to say, a cake is only as good as its recipe and a forecast is only as good as its parts. At the end of the day, it’s all about the quality of the ingredients.

Market place

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Analytics

How Much People Save Around the World

This chart ranks household savings rates across major economies using the latest OECD data. It reveals a wide gap between top savers and those struggling to set money aside. In countries like Sweden and Hungary, households save more than 10% of their income. In the U.S., that figure is just 4.9%.

In some cases, the gap is even more striking. Americans save roughly half as much as households in Mexico, highlighting how cost pressures and consumption patterns differ across economies.

How Much People Save by Country

Sweden ranks as the most disciplined saver, with net household savings rates rising nearly eightfold from 2.3% to 16% over the past two decades.

Many European countries also rank at the top of the list. Households continue to set aside a relatively large share of their income, including Hungary (14.3%) and France (12.8%). These elevated rates are often linked to structural factors such as pension systems and aging

he table below shows savings rates by country in 2024, or the latest available data:

CountryNet Saving Rate
(% of net disposable income)
🇸🇪 Sweden16.0%
🇭🇺 Hungary14.3%
🇨🇿 Czechia13.7%
🇫🇷 France12.8%
🇦🇹 Austria11.7%
🇩🇪 Germany11.2%
🇳🇱 Netherlands9.5%
🇪🇸 Spain9.2%
🇮🇪 Ireland9.0%
🇩🇰 Denmark8.5%
🇲🇽 Mexico8.1%
🇧🇪 Belgium6.6%
🇵🇱 Poland6.1%
🇦🇺 Australia6.1%
🇱🇺 Luxembourg5.0%
🇨🇦 Canada5.0%
🇺🇸 United States4.9%
🇰🇷 South Korea4.8%
🇬🇧 United Kingdom4.7%
🇵🇹 Portugal4.5%
🇫🇮 Finland4.3%
🇮🇹 Italy4.2%
🇳🇴 Norway4.2%
🇱🇹 Lithuania3.8%
🇪🇪 Estonia3.0%
🇯🇵 Japan0.9%
🇱🇻 Latvia0.0%
🇿🇦 South Africa-1.0%
🇳🇿 New Zealand-1.3%

In the middle of the pack, savings rates drop off quickly. The U.S., Canada, and the UK all cluster around 5% or lower, far behind top European savers. The gap is particularly striking when compared globally. U.S. households save about half as much as those in Mexico, and less than one-third of what households in Sweden set aside each year.

At the bottom of the ranking, the picture flips entirely. In countries like New Zealand and South Africa, households are not saving at all. Instead, they are spending more than they earn.

Negative savings rates typically mean people are dipping into past savings or taking on debt to cover everyday expenses, a sign of financial strain rather than choice.

What It Means Going Forward

Savings rates are a key signal of financial resilience.

Countries where households consistently save more tend to have a stronger buffer against inflation, job losses, or economic shocks. Higher savings can also support long-term investment and stability.

On the other hand, persistently low or negative savings rates can point to underlying pressure. When households have little margin to save, economies may become more vulnerable to downturns, rising debt levels, and weaker consumer spending over time.

Visual Capitalist

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Analytics

Should your next car be electric after the war? 

Disruptions to energy flows, especially through the Strait of Hormuz, have triggered one of the most significant shocks to global oil markets in recent years. Fuel costs are rising, and supply chains remain exposed.

“We are in the middle of the second energy shock in the 2020s,” said Kingsmill Bond. “It will flow into people’s decisions on what energy-hungry devices they buy.” For car buyers, that shift is already underway.

1. Fuel costs spike worldwide

The impact shows up immediately:

  • Petrol and diesel prices are rising worldwide, with volatility complicating long-term budgeting
  • Supply risks are adding uncertainty to everyday transport costs

In parts of Asia, fuel rationing and reduced mobility are already visible, accelerating demand for electric two-wheelers and rickshaws. For buyers, the implication is direct: running a petrol car is becoming harder to plan, while EVs offer more stable operating costs.

That cost gap is becoming clearer in the UAE. An analysis by NIO MENA reveals just how significant the gap has become. With Super 98 petrol at Dh3.39 per litre and Special 95 at Dh3.29, a typical petrol car averaging 12 km per litre costs roughly Dh275 to Dh280 to cover 1,000 km.

An electric vehicle charged at home covers the same distance for about Dh45 — a saving of more than Dh230, or up to 84%.

2. EV cost advantage widens

Even with public charging, the economics still favour EVs:

  • Public AC charging: Dh120 per 1,000 km
  • DC fast charging: Dh180 per 1,000 km

For fleet operators, these margins scale quickly. A vehicle covering 30,000 km a year could save between Dh2,700 and Dh6,900 annually depending on charging method. Lower maintenance costs — fewer moving parts, no oil changes — add to the advantage.

“When running an electric vehicle can save you up to 84% compared to petrol, this is no longer a debate about sustainability preferences. It is a bottom-line decision,” said Mohammad Maktari, CEO of NIO MENA.

3. People already shift to electric alternatives

The response extends beyond cars. In India, LPG delivery delays of up to 25 days have pushed households toward electric cooking, with induction stove sales rising as much as 30 times on some platforms.

In Europe, solar panel sales have more than doubled in Germany, and EV buyer interest in the UK has risen nearly 30% since the conflict began.

Households in several economies are reducing reliance on fossil fuels. Electrification is becoming a practical decision tied to cost and reliability.

4. Energy security become a priority

The latest shock is reinforcing a deeper shift. “The main driver will not be climate change, the main driver will be energy security,” said Fatih Birol of the International Energy Agency.

History supports this pattern:

  • The 1970s oil shocks pushed fuel-efficient cars into the mainstream
  • High oil prices in the 2000s accelerated solar and battery innovation

For today’s buyers, the takeaway is clear: EVs reduce exposure to global oil disruptions and offer a path toward greater cost control.

5. Emerging markets accelerate shift

The pressure is strongest in economies reliant on imported fuel. Countries across Asia and Africa — dependent on shipments through the Strait of Hormuz — are facing supply disruptions and rising costs.

In Nigeria, demand for rooftop solar is increasing despite high upfront costs. In Ethiopia, fuel shortages have led to long queues at petrol stations and renewed calls to accelerate EV adoption. Electrification is increasingly seen as a response to supply vulnerability, not just pricing.

Gulf News

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Analytics

A Labubu movie is on its way

Collectible toy maker and IP powerhouse Pop Mart is teaming up with Sony Pictures to bring its wildly popular Labubu doll to movie theaters. 

The live-action and CGI hybrid film is in early development, according to a press release on Thursday. Filmmaker Paul King, best known for 2014′s “Paddington” and “Wonka” from 2023, will produce, direct and co-write the script with screenwriter Steven Levenson.

The now-iconic Labubu character was created by artist Kasing Lung as part of “The Monsters” toy universe, and later became one of Pop Mart’s signature “blind box” hits, gifts packaged in such a way that shoppers don’t know exactly what they’re buying until after they’ve completed their purchase.

Labubu hit peak popularity in the summer of 2025 as sales on the secondary market skyrocketed. But the hype began to quickly fade as sales from resellers lost steam as Pop Mart — a Chinese company — ramped up toy production to meet consumer demand. At the time, Pop Mart told CNBC the fall in resale prices would benefit the company.

According to data supplied to CNBC by Pop Mart, in the first half of 2025, products from “The Monsters” series made up 34.7% of Pop Mart’s revenue, followed by the Molly series, a figurine of a wide-eyed, pouty-lipped girl at 9.8% and Skull Panda, a dark, gothic-themed character at 8.8%.

Franchise expansion

In a February 2026 report, HSBC analysts warned that the Labubu frenzy could lessen and Pop Mart’s earnings could fall, writing: “We expect 2026 growth to normalize after dissecting the Labubu growth risk, leading to 11% to 13% cut in 26-27 earnings.”

Now, as Pop Mart looks for ways to keep the franchise momentum going, the company says the collaboration marks a major step in expanding “The Monsters” from collectibles into a big-screen story.

Movies are not Pop Mart’s goal, according to Chief Operating Officer Si De, in an interview with CNBC’s Elaine Yu on March 1.

“What we look forward to more is using storytelling to help people fall in love with these IPs more deeply or find those points of connection. I think this is the core point of what we want to achieve with our content,” he said.

Si De said the benefits of movies or animation is twofold. “On one hand, it lets people see the [characters’] world more intuitively. On the other hand, it generates a large amount of material. Some of this material can become product designs, some can inspire our theme park design,” he said.

CNBC

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