UAE

When will UAE fuel prices start dropping?

After four consecutive months of fuel price increases, many UAE motorists are hoping relief is finally around the corner.

There are signs that global oil markets are cooling. Brent crude, the international benchmark, is trading around $97 a barrel, down from the $110-$120 levels seen earlier this year when disruptions to Gulf shipping routes sent energy prices soaring.

But economists warn that a return to significantly cheaper fuel may still be some distance away. The UAE raised petrol prices again for June, taking Super 98 to Dh3.95 a litre, Special 95 to Dh3.83, and E-Plus 91 to Dh3.76. Diesel, meanwhile, eased to Dh4.33 per litre after reaching much higher levels in previous months.

For motorists, that means fuel remains substantially more expensive than it was at the start of the year. Super 98 has climbed from Dh2.45 per litre in February to Dh3.95 in June, a jump of more than 61% in just four months.

For a typical driver filling a 60-litre tank, that translates into a fuel bill of about Dh237 today versus Dh147 in February — roughly Dh90 more every time they refuel.

Why prices are still high

The main reason is oil. Although crude prices have retreated from their recent peaks, they remain elevated because of continuing uncertainty surrounding the conflict involving Iran and the future of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

The waterway handles roughly 20% of global oil supplies, making it one of the most important energy routes in the world.

Recent optimism surrounding US-Iran negotiations and ceasefire efforts has helped push oil below $100 a barrel. Markets are increasingly betting that a diplomatic solution could eventually allow shipping flows to normalise.

That has reduced some of the panic buying that drove crude sharply higher earlier this year. Yet economists say lower oil prices are likely to arrive gradually rather than suddenly.

Slower path to lower prices

Gita Gopinath, Deputy Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund and formerly its Chief Economist, said oil prices are unlikely to return quickly to the levels seen before the conflict.

“We are not going to see the price of oil come down all the way very quickly,” Gopinath said. “It’s going to take probably till the middle of next year for oil to come back to say $70 or $75 a barrel.” She added: “There is going to be an effect lasting into next year.”

That timeline is important for UAE motorists because fuel prices are directly linked to global oil markets through the country’s monthly fuel-pricing mechanism.

That has reduced some of the panic buying that drove crude sharply higher earlier this year. Yet economists say lower oil prices are likely to arrive gradually rather than suddenly.

Slower path to lower prices

Gita Gopinath, Deputy Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund and formerly its Chief Economist, said oil prices are unlikely to return quickly to the levels seen before the conflict.

That timeline is important for UAE motorists because fuel prices are directly linked to global oil markets through the country’s monthly fuel-pricing mechanism.

What could happen next?

Based on current oil market trends, the most likely scenario is a gradual easing rather than a sharp drop. If Brent crude remains below $100 a barrel and tensions continue to ease, UAE fuel prices could begin seeing modest downward adjustments over coming months.

The pace of any decline will depend on how quickly global oil supplies recover and whether shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz returns to normal levels.

Because UAE fuel prices are based on monthly average oil prices rather than daily movements, changes in crude prices typically take time to filter through to consumers.

That means even if oil falls further this month, motorists may need to wait several pricing cycles before seeing a meaningful difference at the pump.

Risk that could delay relief

Economists are also warning against assuming the crisis is over. Gopinath cautioned that markets may be underestimating the risk of a prolonged disruption.

“If this continues for another month, we’re looking at oil prices that could go up to like $120 and $140 a barrel and could stay there for much longer,” she said. Such a scenario would likely push fuel prices higher again and add pressure to inflation globally.

The warning is echoed by the OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development). The 38-member intergovernmental organization says the global economy remains highly exposed to prolonged energy disruptions. “The longer the disruption lasts, the greater the economic, but also the social cost of this crisis,” said Stefano Scarpetta.

The OECD forecasts global growth slowing to 2.8% in 2026 if Gulf oil and gas exports return to pre-conflict levels later this year. If disruptions continue into 2027, global growth could slow sharply to 2.1%, with some economies facing recession risks.

When will motorists get relief?

The answer depends largely on one number: oil. If crude prices continue moving lower and remain below $100 a barrel, UAE motorists could begin seeing fuel prices stabilise and gradually ease in the months ahead

But based on current forecasts from economists and international organisations, a return to the much lower fuel prices seen at the beginning of 2026 is unlikely in the near term.

For now, the sharp spikes appear to be over. The next phase is more likely to be gradual cooling rather than a rapid drop.

UAE

UAE citizens can use e-gates at Mexico airports

Mexican authorities have introduced simplified entry procedures for UAE citizens, allowing them to complete their arrival procedures through electronic gates at a number of Mexican airports from Thursday, the UAE Embassy in Mexico said.

Under the new system, Emirati will no longer need to undergo the standard processing procedures at participating airports. Instead, travellers will receive a ticket containing a QR code linked to the Multiple Digital Immigration Form (FMMD), which they must retain throughout the duration of their stay in Mexico.

The embassy said the measure takes effect from Thursday and is intended to facilitate the arrival process for Emirati visitors.

The simplified procedures aim to ease the entry of Emirati fans travelling to Mexico for FIFA World Cup 2026 matches, which the country will co-host alongside the US and Canada.

REAL ESTATE

Dubai’s Shangri-La sold for Dh1.1b

Dubai’s luxury real estate market has recorded another major deal after AHS Properties acquired the Shangri-La Dubai hotel property on Sheikh Zayed Road for an eye-watering Dh1.1 billion.

the acquisition marks one of Dubai’s largest single-asset real estate transactions in recent years, according to the company. The deal also highlights growing investor appetite for prime assets along Sheikh Zayed Road — one of the city’s most established commercial and luxury corridors.

The property was previously sold in 2020 for Dh700.2 million through an online auction linked to debt recovery proceedings involving the Al Jaber Group. The latest transaction reflects a roughly 57 per cent increase in value over six years.

The 42-storey mixed-use property includes a luxury hotel, apartments and office space.

The 26-year-old billionaire founder and CEO of AHS Properties said no final decision has been made on the future of the Shangri-La Dubai asset, although the company plans to upgrade and enhance parts of the building to improve its long-term value.

What happens to Shangri-La

Sajwani said the company has not yet finalised its long-term strategy for the Shangri-La Dubai asset, but plans to enhance and reposition parts of the mixed-use property to unlock additional value.

“AHS focus is luxury real estate, whether it’s residential, commercial, or hospitality,” he said. “We see how we can enhance the project the most, and how we can get the most value-added services from them.”

Sajwani said the company is evaluating several options for the property, including renovating offices, upgrading parts of the development and improving income generation.

“This project hit all those requirements,” he said. “The strategy has many different options of things we can do, so we’re still deciding on that, but the asset was key.”

He added that the company continues expanding its Sheikh Zayed Road presence, with AHS Tower under development and another major mixed-use project planned for launch later this year.

“We have another plot, which we own, which we will launch at the end of the year,” he said. “That will be the biggest project on Sheikh Zayed Road — it’s a Dh25 billion project.” He said details of this project will be announced later in the year.

Sheikh Zayed Road land scarcity

Sajwani also said that Dubai’s prime locations are expected to continue appreciating because of limited land availability. “Dubai will just continue to grow, and the prime will always stay prime,” he said.

“There’s no more lands on Sheikh Zayed Road, and you cannot come up with a new land. So, these assets will continue to rise long term,” said Sajwani. He added that demand for premium office and residential space in the area remains strong.

The acquisition strengthens AHS Properties’ growing footprint on Sheikh Zayed Road, where it already has projects including AHS Tower and AHS City.

Sajwani also confirmed the company plans to launch another mixed-use development on Sheikh Zayed Road later this year. He described it as a Dh25 billion project currently under design.

Under Sajwani’s leadership, the firm expanded into commercial real estate, acquiring and rebranding Dubai’s long-vacant “Big Ben” tower on Sheikh Zayed Road (now AHS Tower) for $120 million.

Mixed-use developments

While the Shangri-La Dubai acquisition includes hospitality assets, Sajwani said the company is not shifting solely into hotels.

“AHS focus is luxury real estate, whether it’s residential, commercial, or hospitality,” he said. He said the company is still evaluating different strategies for the property, including renovations and upgrades to improve long-term returns.

“This project hit all those requirements,” he said, adding that the company sees “huge potential” in the asset.

Founded in 2021, AHS Properties has rapidly expanded in Dubai’s ultra-luxury property market with projects focused on waterfront and premium urban locations.

Last year, the company launched Casa AHS, a Dubai Water Canal development valued at around $750 million, featuring ultra-luxury residences including Sky Villas and Sky Mansions.

Dubai luxury market

Sajwani said Dubai’s ultra-luxury market has seen buyers taking longer to make purchasing decisions in recent months, although demand remains intact.

“We still see transactions,” he said. “It is just people are taking longer to decide.”

He added that the summer period traditionally slows activity but expects demand to strengthen again after September.

According to Sajwani, wealthy international buyers continue relocating to Dubai because of the emirate’s infrastructure, lifestyle, education system and long-term economic policies.

“People are still moving to Dubai, people are still looking for investments and looking for opportunities,” he said.

He also said Dubai’s commercial real estate segment remains undersupplied, particularly for Grade A office space.

“Commercial is very strong,” Sajwani said. “There is currently a lack of supply.”

Prime Dubai districts expected to outperform

Sajwani said Dubai’s established luxury districts are likely to remain the strongest performers in the years ahead.

He identified Sheikh Zayed Road, Downtown Dubai, Dubai Water Canal, Palm Jumeirah and Bulgari Island among the locations expected to continue attracting luxury demand.

“I think the prime will continue to rise in a big way,” he said.

He added that Dubai’s long-term population growth and tourism expansion would continue supporting demand across residential, office and hospitality sectors.

AHS Properties expects its gross development value to reach around Dh50 billion by the end of this year, according to Sajwani.

Dubai’s real estate market has largely remained resilient — but the pace of transactions, especially in the luxury segment, has slowed compared to the rapid growth seen over the past three years.

Brokers and consultancies reported that high-net-worth investors began taking longer to close deals, particularly for ultra-luxury homes above Dh20 million. Many adopted a temporary “wait-and-watch” approach amid geopolitical uncertainty.

travel

Many airlines continue to suspend routes

Passengers flying to and from Dubai are facing schedule changes after several international airlines suspended, cancelled or delayed the resumption of services because of the ongoing situation in the Middle East.

The disruption, which began at the start of the conflict on February 28, affects carriers across Europe, North America and Asia, with some Dubai routes paused until August, September or the end of the summer season. Travellers with confirmed bookings are being advised to check airline websites and apps before heading to the airport, as schedules remain subject to further changes.

Aegean Airlines has cancelled flights to and from Dubai until August 31, while Air Canada has cancelled flights to Dubai and Tel Aviv until September 7. Cathay Pacific has suspended Dubai and Riyadh flights until August 31, and Singapore Airlines has extended the suspension of its Singapore-Dubai service until August 2.

British Airways has pushed back several Middle East routes, with flights to Dubai, Tel Aviv, Bahrain and Amman paused until the end of the summer season and scheduled to resume on October 25. The airline is also expected to return with a reduced schedule on some routes, including Dubai.

European carriers pull back

The biggest disruption is coming from European carriers, as airlines are still adjusting capacity across the Middle East due to airspace risk remaining a concern.

Air France has suspended flights to Dubai and Beirut until June 17, while KLM has suspended flights to Dubai until August 2. KLM flights to Riyadh and Dammam are suspended until July 12.

Lufthansa Group carriers are also maintaining a wide range of suspensions in the Middle East. Lufthansa, SWISS and ITA Airways will continue to suspend flights to Dubai until September 13, while Lufthansa, SWISS, Austrian Airlines and Brussels Airlines have suspended flights to Abu Dhabi, Amman, Beirut, Dammam, Riyadh, Erbil, Muscat and Tehran until October 24.

Eurowings, the Lufthansa Group’s low-cost carrier, has suspended flights to Dubai, Abu Dhabi and Amman until October 24.

Wizz Air has suspended flights from mainland Europe to Dubai, Abu Dhabi and Amman until mid-September, while flights to Medina have been cancelled indefinitely.

Some routes are returning

The disruption is not uniform across the market, with some airlines gradually restoring flights while others remain cautious.

Air Astana is set to resume regular flights from Almaty to Dubai from June 20, with Astana-Dubai services beginning on July 10. The airline has adjusted flight paths to operate via Pakistan because of the closure of Iranian airspace, saying the change is aimed at maintaining safety and reliability.

The Almaty-Dubai route is expected to increase from limited weekly services to daily flights by July 6, while Astana-Dubai will start with three weekly flights from July 10 before expanding to daily services by August 3.

Passengers holding rebooked tickets for departures up to July 31 can change bookings free of charge to earlier flights from June 20 for Almaty departures and from July 10 for Astana departures.

Aegean said it is continuing to monitor developments in line with instructions from aviation authorities and will keep adjusting its schedule on affected routes. Passengers whose flights are cancelled can request a refund or credit voucher, or change their tickets through the airline’s call centre without a reissue charge or fare difference.

What passengers should do

Passengers booked on affected Dubai flights should check their airline’s website or app before leaving for the airport, because schedules are changing by carrier and by route.

Those travelling during the summer should also check whether their airline is offering a refund, credit voucher, free date change or rerouting through another hub. Airlines including Aegean, Cathay Pacific and Air Astana have set out options for affected customers, although policies differ depending on ticket type, travel date and point of purchase.

Cathay Pacific said customers booked to travel during the affected period may rebook, reroute or refund tickets under its waiver policy. “We are monitoring the situation closely and will remain agile in our response. The safety of our customers and people guides every decision we make,” the airline said in a statement.

Virgin Atlantic has also brought forward the end of its seasonal London-Dubai operation, saying, “The recent escalation in the Middle East has brought forward the end of our operation for this season.”

GN With inputs from Reuters.