Food
A global food price shock looms as Middle East war rages on
The Middle East conflict has disrupted trade through the Strait of Hormuz and its impact could ripple far beyond the energy markets, risking a spike in global food prices.
The strait is not only a key artery for oil and gas shipments but also for fertilizers critical to global agriculture. Analysts told CNBC disruptions could feed through to higher farming costs, reduced crop yields and ultimately more expensive food.
“Higher energy and input costs risk reigniting global food inflation just as retail food prices had returned to more historical levels in many countries,” according to the International Food Policy Research Institute, or IFPRI.
Raj Patel, a research professor at the University of Texas, also warned that fertilizer disruptions linked to the conflict could amplify global food pressures through several channels simultaneously.
“The short answer is: significant, and faster than people think,” Patel said. “The Strait of Hormuz is a fertilizer chokepoint. Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Oman, and Iran together supply a substantial share of the world’s traded urea and phosphates, and virtually all of it transits Hormuz.”
Countries dependent on food imports directly as well as those reliant on fertilizers could face rising costs within weeks, particularly during key planting periods, said industry watchers.
Gulf countries face: immediate risk
The first region likely to feel the impact includes countries closest to the conflict.
“Regionally, consumers in the GCC are most exposed to short-term food price spikes due to their heavy reliance on maritime imports transiting the Strait of Hormuz,” said Bin Hui Ong, commodities analyst at BMI.
Arabian Gulf economies such as Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia rely heavily on food imports shipped through the Strait of Hormuz. If shipping remains constrained, supplies would need to be rerouted through alternative corridors or transported overland at far higher cost, analysts said.
“When it comes to short term shortages, all countries around the Persian gulf west of Hormuz will struggle to get food imports in,” Mera said. “These countries will need to find alternative routes.”
He noted that wealthier states such as Qatar, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait have the financial resources to import food by air or overland routes if necessary, but poorer neighbors may struggle more.
“Iraq may suffer. Iran itself will also face scarcity,” Mera added.
Sub-Saharan Africa: most vulnerable
Beyond the Gulf region, the greatest risks may lie in parts of Sub-Saharan Africa, where farmers depend heavily on imported fertilizer and households spend a large share of income on food.
“Sub-Saharan Africa is the most vulnerable region,” said Patel. Data from the University of Texas at Austin shows that over 90% of the fertilizer consumed in sub-Saharan Africa is imported, mostly from outside the continent.
Nitrogen-intensive crops such as maize, a key staple across the region, are especially sensitive to fertilizer shortages, raising the risk of lower harvests and rising food prices, other experts highlighted.
“The poorest and most densely populated regions are likely to suffer the most,” said Rabobank’s Mera, including parts of sub-Saharan Africa.
Asian concerns
South and Southeast Asia could also face mounting cost pressures.
Major agricultural economies such as India, Bangladesh, Thailand and Indonesia rely heavily on imported fertilizers from the Gulf. A sustained disruption could drive up costs for farmers during key planting seasons.
“A farmer in Thailand who is 90% import-dependent, buying urea that’s made from gas, shipped through Hormuz, and priced in dollars that are strengthening because of geopolitical risk, faces a cost shock on every dimension simultaneously,” Patel said.
Staples in the region, which include rice and maize are among the most fertilizer-intensive crops.
Mera singled out Indonesia and Bangladesh among those likely to be worst affected in the region.
Longer-term view
If farmers respond to higher fertilizer prices by reducing its use, crop yields could decline and push food prices higher.
Brazil, one of the world’s largest agricultural exporters, could face rising costs if fertilizer markets tighten, said analysts. Brazil imports around 85% of its fertilizer, making its soybean and maize production highly dependent on global supply chains.
A prolonged disruption during Brazil’s key fertilizer import season could ripple through global crop markets, eventually impacting food prices.
Even if crop output remains relatively stable in the near term, rising energy costs alone could drive food inflation higher globally, experts said.
Energy plays a major role throughout the food supply chain, from powering farm machinery and producing fertilizers to transporting crops and processing them into food products.
“The bigger impact on consumer prices will not be the impact on agricultural commodities but the fact that energy is a big portion of the total retail food bill,” said Joseph Glauber, senior research fellow at the International Food Policy Research Institute.
Chris Barrett, an agricultural economist at Cornell University, said the scale of any price shock will depend heavily on how long shipping disruptions persist.
CNBC
Discover
Five-second rule is a myth
You drop a piece of cucumber on the floor. Do you immediately throw it in the bin or reassure yourself of the age-old “five-second rule” and reckon it’s fine to pop it in your mouth after a quick rinse?
If you fall into the latter camp, John Tregoning, professor of vaccine immunology at Imperial College London, has some bad news. He refers to three studies into bacteria transfer that all point towards the rule being false.
In the first, scientists looked at what happens when a range of foods (bread, buttered bread, watermelon and gummy bears) were dropped on a range of surfaces (tile, steel, wood, and carpet) that had been coated with bacteria. “They transferred almost immediately,” he says, adding that the worst combination for transfer happened when wet food hit a solid surface (watermelon on tile or steel).
Another study – where cooked sausage was dropped on to surfaces – showed that bacteria transferred on to the meat even if they had been applied to the surface hours earlier. It showed that “if you put a piece of contaminated chicken on to a work surface and then, two hours later, drop your piece of bread on to it, you can still pick up bacteria from it. It’ll be there for about 24 hours,” he says.
The final paper looked at the “five-second rule” for medical objects in the operating room. Perhaps unsurprisingly, it found that if surgeons drop something on the floor, they need to wash that instrument with detergent for it to be safe to use again.
What does all this mean for your fallen cucumber? “I think you have to accept it’s gone,” says Tregoning. Rinsing it with water won’t be enough to guarantee it’s clean. That’s especially the case if you’re particularly susceptible to infections, or if your dog might have walked something terrible through the house (even hours earlier).
THE GUARDIAN
Food
WFP: Middle East conflict driving millions into hunger
The Middle East conflict is pushing millions of people closer to hunger, as rising fuel and transport costs drive up food prices while funding shortfalls force aid agencies to scale back assistance, the U.N. World Food Programme said on Friday.
Joint U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran in February triggered a regional conflict stretching across the Gulf and into Lebanon, disrupting key shipping routes, including the Strait of Hormuz, forcing vessels to reroute and sharply constraining global energy flows and supply chains.
In March, the WFP forecast as many as 45 million people could fall into acute food insecurity if oil prices remained around $100 per barrel through June. That scenario is now unfolding, the agency said, with benchmark crude prices staying above that level since early March.
Households in Afghanistan, Somalia and Sri Lanka are among the most seriously affected and face mounting pressure due to higher fuel costs, food price spikes, income losses and disrupted trade.
In Somalia, 6.5 million people – roughly a third of the population – are expected to face severe hunger in 2026, while Afghanistan could see 17.4 million people affected, the WFP said. The situation is projected to worsen, with an additional 2.5 million Somalis and 2.3 million Afghans at risk of falling into food insecurity if disruptions persist. Both countries are reliant on imported energy and food.
FOOD SHORTAGES TO HIT VERY VULNERABLE CHILDREN
The Middle East crisis comes amid a deep funding shortfall for aid agencies. The WFP said it expected to serve 1.5 million fewer people globally in 2026, and 9 million fewer if the situation persists for six months.
In Somalia, supplies of nutritious food for children under 5 suffering from moderate malnutrition will run out as soon as July, as the WFP faces an 89% funding gap in the country.
“We are running out of food. The food is not available for distribution, and the ones who will experience the impact of this are going to be very vulnerable children,” said Jean-Martin Bauer, the director of WFP’s Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Service.
The situation is being worsened by supply chain issues, with fewer ships stopping in Somalia because of disruptions which have affected shipping in the Indian Ocean.
Some WFP stocks have also been held up in Salalah Port in Oman, causing critical delays. Soaring jet fuel prices are also leading to higher operational costs for the United Nations Humanitarian Air Service – the only means to safely access hard-to-reach areas, the WFP said.
In Afghanistan, surging fuel prices have driven up aid transport costs as much as fivefold, and delivery times have shot up from 10 days up to as many as 75 days as trucks had to use alternative corridors, the WFP said.
Food
I’m vegetarian. How can I get enough iron?
I’ve been advised to increase the iron in my diet but, as a vegetarian preoccupied with getting sufficient protein, I’m at a loss.
June, by email
Last year, a study by Randox Health found that almost one in three women who attended its UK clinics have an iron deficiency, which is to say that June isn’t alone. Yes, there are good sources that vegetarians can tap into, but we first need to address a few key points: “The heme iron you get from animal sources – red meat and darker poultry, say – is in a form that’s slightly better absorbed than non-heme iron, which is found in the likes of beans, tofu and leafy greens,” says Dominique Ludwig, nutritionist and author of No-Nonsense Nutrition. This is where vitamin C is your friend: “When we eat non-heme iron and vitamin C together, it increases absorption, so it might be a case for having peppers or tomatoes with your tofu.” But there’s another potential hitch: “On a vegetarian diet, some of that iron can be blocked from absorption because of things such as phytates [a plant compound found in whole grains, legumes, etc], or tannins in tea and dairy,” Ludwig adds, so it’s not simply about how much iron you’re getting, but how good your absorption is.
“Women aged 19-49 should aim for 14.8mg iron a day, but after menopause that drops to about 8.7mg, which falls in line with men’s requirements,” Ludwig says. “If you’re vegetarian, then, you can’t just be having pesto pasta, you need to be eating beans, lentils, nuts, seeds, soy products, and leafy greens, too.” Tofu can have 3-5mg iron per 100g, cooked lentils 3-4mg, chickpeas 2½-3mg, cashews 6-7mg and sesame seeds 14-15mg. So, much like getting dressed, layering is important.
Oats in the morning are a no-brainer: “A 40g serving will give you 2mg iron, so have them with milled flaxseed and berries for the vitamin C,” Ludwig advises. The same principle applies to the likes of a tofu scramble: “Throw in some kale and tomatoes [again, for the vitamin C] and serve it with wholemeal bread, and you’re looking at about 7mg iron,” Ludwig adds. In other words, your day is getting off to a good start.
Also, seeing as Jane is vegetarian rather than vegan, she has eggs to play with, too, which is good news considering each one contains about 2mg iron. “Try a frittata with cottage cheese and broccoli, then sprinkle over some pumpkin seeds [a fantastic source of iron] before baking.” You can see how this all starts to add up.
Cashews, edamame, dried fruit (apricots, figs, prunes) and that perennial favourite, carrots and hummus, will all help. An evening stir-fry, meanwhile, can bring the odds and ends in your fridge together into an ultra-fast dinner that ups your iron. There are greens (kale, broccoli), of course, but June could also add tofu or seitan, and nuts, perhaps, and serve it with brown rice. “Or add lentils to your pasta, and stir through lots of green veg,” Ludwig adds. It can be easy being green.
The Guardian
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