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Food

Food prices could rise as Iran conflict disrupts fertilizer supply chain

The war in Iran could raise global food prices as the conflict disrupts fertilizer shipments through one of the world’s most critical trade routes.

While energy markets have focused on oil supply risks, analysts say threats to fertilizer supply chains through the Strait of Hormuz may also bring long-term economic issues through food inflation.

“Beyond energy, another risk receiving less attention is the potential knock-on effect on food prices, as fertilizer shortages push agricultural costs higher,” said Wolfe Research chief economist Stephanie Roth in a note written on Tuesday.

Roth estimates the disruption could raise “food-at-home” inflation by roughly 2 percentage points, adding about 0.15 percentage points to headline inflation in the U.S., on top of roughly 0.40 percentage point increase from energy.

Those potential price hikes come as U.S. consumers face a sustained stretch of higher prices for food, housing and energy. Inflation for food at home climbed 2.4% year over year in February, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said Wednesday.

More than one-third of globally traded fertilizer passes through the Strait of Hormuz, making it a critical artery for agricultural supply chains. Commercial traffic through the route has largely been halted since the war started late last month, disrupting shipments just as farmers across the Northern Hemisphere prepare fields for spring planting.

The timing is critical because fertilizers are applied early in the crop cycle and help determine yields later in the year.

“If fertilizer supply tightens during this window, farmers may reduce application rates,” Roth said in the note. That could reduce yields for crops like corn, soybeans, wheat and rice, and increase agricultural costs.

Economists in the fertilizer industry are equally concerned and say prices are already rising.

Between the weeks ending Feb. 27 and March 6 — which encompass the start of the war — the price per short ton of urea fertilizer imports in the U.S. jumped by 30%, according to data collected by industry advocacy group The Fertilizer Institute.

Urea — a nitrogen-based fertilizer widely used to boost crop yields — is one of the most heavily traded fertilizers moving through the region.

Higher fertilizer prices for farmers and retailers could ultimately raise food costs for consumers if the trade disruption lasts, said Veronica Nigh, chief economist at The Fertilizer Institute.

“This is a global impact on fertilizer costs,” said Nigh. “I would imagine that there would be much more passing on of these costs to consumers in this scenario, which is not something we have seen before.”

The U.S. relies on global fertilizer markets, importing roughly 20% of its total use, though nitrogen fertilizers like urea come from a more wide-ranging group of suppliers, including Canada, Trinidad and Tobago, Russia and elsewhere.

The ripple effect could stretch around the world and beyond commodities. Asia and Africa are especially dependent on fertilizer exports from the Gulf region. Countries such as India rely heavily on Gulf supplies, while several African economies depend on imported materials used to produce fertilizers.

While disruptions to fertilizer shipments could lower crop yields for farmers and raise costs for households, fertilizer producers could stand to benefit.

CF Industries hit an all-time high Monday and shares are up nearly 10% over the past week, the company’s biggest multiday gain since 2022.

CNBC

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Five-second rule is a myth


Y
ou drop a piece of cucumber on the floor. Do you immediately throw it in the bin or reassure yourself of the age-old “five-second rule” and reckon it’s fine to pop it in your mouth after a quick rinse?

If you fall into the latter camp, John Tregoning, professor of vaccine immunology at Imperial College London, has some bad news. He refers to three studies into bacteria transfer that all point towards the rule being false.

In the first, scientists looked at what happens when a range of foods (bread, buttered bread, watermelon and gummy bears) were dropped on a range of surfaces (tile, steel, wood, and carpet) that had been coated with bacteria. “They transferred almost immediately,” he says, adding that the worst combination for transfer happened when wet food hit a solid surface (watermelon on tile or steel).

Another study – where cooked sausage was dropped on to surfaces – showed that bacteria transferred on to the meat even if they had been applied to the surface hours earlier. It showed that “if you put a piece of contaminated chicken on to a work surface and then, two hours later, drop your piece of bread on to it, you can still pick up bacteria from it. It’ll be there for about 24 hours,” he says.

The final paper looked at the “five-second rule” for medical objects in the operating room. Perhaps unsurprisingly, it found that if surgeons drop something on the floor, they need to wash that instrument with detergent for it to be safe to use again.

What does all this mean for your fallen cucumber? “I think you have to accept it’s gone,” says Tregoning. Rinsing it with water won’t be enough to guarantee it’s clean. That’s especially the case if you’re particularly susceptible to infections, or if your dog might have walked something terrible through the house (even hours earlier).

THE GUARDIAN

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Food

WFP: Middle East conflict driving millions into hunger

The Middle East conflict is pushing millions of people closer to hunger, as rising ‌fuel and transport costs drive up food prices while funding shortfalls force aid agencies to scale back assistance, the U.N. World Food Programme said on Friday.

Joint U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran in February triggered a regional conflict stretching across the Gulf and into Lebanon, disrupting key shipping routes, ​including the Strait of Hormuz, forcing vessels to reroute and sharply constraining global energy flows and supply chains.

In March, the ​WFP forecast as many as 45 million people could fall into acute food insecurity if oil ⁠prices remained around $100 per barrel through June. That scenario is now unfolding, the agency said, with benchmark crude prices staying ​above that level since early March.

Households in Afghanistan, Somalia and Sri Lanka are among the most seriously affected and face mounting ​pressure due to higher fuel costs, food price spikes, income losses and disrupted trade.

In Somalia, 6.5 million people – roughly a third of the population – are expected to face severe hunger in 2026, while Afghanistan could see 17.4 million people affected, the WFP said. The situation is projected ​to worsen, with an additional 2.5 million Somalis and 2.3 million Afghans at risk of falling into food insecurity if ​disruptions persist. Both countries are reliant on imported energy and food.

FOOD SHORTAGES TO HIT VERY VULNERABLE CHILDREN

The Middle East crisis comes amid a ‌deep ⁠funding shortfall for aid agencies. The WFP said it expected to serve 1.5 million fewer people globally in 2026, and 9 million fewer if the situation persists for six months.

In Somalia, supplies of nutritious food for children under 5 suffering from moderate malnutrition will run out as soon as July, as the WFP faces an 89% funding gap in the country.

“We ​are running out of food. ​The food is not available ⁠for distribution, and the ones who will experience the impact of this are going to be very vulnerable children,” said Jean-Martin Bauer, the director of WFP’s Food Security and Nutrition Analysis ​Service.

The situation is being worsened by supply chain issues, with fewer ships stopping ​in Somalia because ⁠of disruptions which have affected shipping in the Indian Ocean.

Some WFP stocks have also been held up in Salalah Port in Oman, causing critical delays. Soaring jet fuel prices are also leading to higher operational costs for the United Nations Humanitarian Air Service – the ⁠only ​means to safely access hard-to-reach areas, the WFP said.

In Afghanistan, surging fuel prices ​have driven up aid transport costs as much as fivefold, and delivery times have shot up from 10 days up to as many as 75 days ​as trucks had to use alternative corridors, the WFP said.

 The Thomson Reuters

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Food

 I’m vegetarian. How can I get enough iron?

Ive been advised to increase the iron in my diet but, as a vegetarian preoccupied with getting sufficient protein, I’m at a loss.
June, by email
Last year, a study by Randox Health found that almost one in three women who attended its UK clinics have an iron deficiency, which is to say that June isn’t alone. Yes, there are good sources that vegetarians can tap into, but we first need to address a few key points: “The heme iron you get from animal sources – red meat and darker poultry, say – is in a form that’s slightly better absorbed than non-heme iron, which is found in the likes of beans, tofu and leafy greens,” says Dominique Ludwig, nutritionist and author of No-Nonsense Nutrition. This is where vitamin C is your friend: “When we eat non-heme iron and vitamin C together, it increases absorption, so it might be a case for having peppers or tomatoes with your tofu.” But there’s another potential hitch: “On a vegetarian diet, some of that iron can be blocked from absorption because of things such as phytates [a plant compound found in whole grains, legumes, etc], or tannins in tea and dairy,” Ludwig adds, so it’s not simply about how much iron you’re getting, but how good your absorption is.

“Women aged 19-49 should aim for 14.8mg iron a day, but after menopause that drops to about 8.7mg, which falls in line with men’s requirements,” Ludwig says. “If you’re vegetarian, then, you can’t just be having pesto pasta, you need to be eating beans, lentils, nuts, seeds, soy products, and leafy greens, too.” Tofu can have 3-5mg iron per 100g, cooked lentils 3-4mg, chickpeas 2½-3mg, cashews 6-7mg and sesame seeds 14-15mg. So, much like getting dressed, layering is important.

Oats in the morning are a no-brainer: “A 40g serving will give you 2mg iron, so have them with milled flaxseed and berries for the vitamin C,” Ludwig advises. The same principle applies to the likes of a tofu scramble: “Throw in some kale and tomatoes [again, for the vitamin C] and serve it with wholemeal bread, and you’re looking at about 7mg iron,” Ludwig adds. In other words, your day is getting off to a good start.

Also, seeing as Jane is vegetarian rather than vegan, she has eggs to play with, too, which is good news considering each one contains about 2mg iron. “Try a frittata with cottage cheese and broccoli, then sprinkle over some pumpkin seeds [a fantastic source of iron] before baking.” You can see how this all starts to add up.

Cashews, edamame, dried fruit (apricots, figs, prunes) and that perennial favourite, carrots and hummus, will all help. An evening stir-fry, meanwhile, can bring the odds and ends in your fridge together into an ultra-fast dinner that ups your iron. There are greens (kale, broccoli), of course, but June could also add tofu or seitan, and nuts, perhaps, and serve it with brown rice. “Or add lentils to your pasta, and stir through lots of green veg,” Ludwig adds. It can be easy being green.

The Guardian

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