Colombia elected nationalist lawyer Abelardo ​De La Espriella as its new president on Sunday, according to an initial vote count, marking a sharp political turn and ‌bringing a hardline security agenda and market-friendly policies to the fore.

Nicknamed “The Tiger” by his followers, De La Espriella portrayed himself as an anti-establishment savior capable of reviving Colombia’s ailing economy and restoring order in a country rattled by illegal armed groups and drug trafficking.

De La Espriella began gaining popularity early in the year with ​his tough-on-crime discourse. He pulled off a victory in the first round in late May with 43.7% of the vote and ​then beat leftist senator Ivan Cepeda in the runoff with 49.66% to Cepeda’s 48.7%, according to the national registrar’s ⁠tally.

De La Espriella, who blames outgoing President Gustavo for Colombia’s economic and security woes, won over a plurality of voters with pledges to reduce the size of ​the state by 40%, broaden the tax base and end peace efforts with armed groups in favor of a hardened military response.

He plans ​to restart oil exploration and allow fracking to nearly double production to 1.3 million barrels per day.

De La Espriella claims to have self-financed his campaign and says his “Defenders of the Homeland” movement grew without support from outside political parties or business groups. Reuters could not independently verify this claim.

Aside from being an attorney, De La ​Espriella has a sprawling business empire that includes wine, rum, clothing and real estate. An investigative journalism outlet, La Silla Vacia, found that ​many of his businesses have been dissolved, are in debt and lost money overall in 2024, with his law firm being his most profitable endeavor. De La ‌Espriella’s campaign ⁠declined to answer La Silla Vacia’s questions about the candidate’s businesses, the outlet said, but later questioned its funding in a public letter. La Silla Vacia rejected allegations of bias.

LUXURY WATCHES ON AN IRON FIST

De La Espriella, 47, used a military salute throughout his campaign despite never having served in the military.

Often seen wearing luxury watches, designer sunglasses and with a well-groomed beard, De La Espriella has drawn comparisons to El Salvador’s ​Nayib Bukele, who calls himself the “world’s ​coolest dictator.”

Bukele has implemented heavy-handed ⁠security policies and mega-prisons that pushed crime rates in El Salvador to among the lowest in Central America and prompted calls for other countries to adopt similar policies. He has detained more than 90,000 people in ​the process, drawing criticism from human rights groups.

De La Espriella denies he is imitating Bukele but has ​proposed 10 mega-prisons ⁠in Colombia.

De La Espriella has also faced criticism for legally representing Alex Saab, who faces charges in the U.S. of laundering money for ousted Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. He has also represented people linked to corruption scandals, financial embezzlement and right-wing paramilitaries and says his professional relationships as an attorney ⁠do not ​involve any complicity or crime.

De La Espriella, a married father of four, grew up ​in the Caribbean city of Monteria and is a known singer of the region’s traditional vallenato folk music. A citizen of the United States, Italy and Colombia, De La Espriella ​is set to assume the presidency on August 7.

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Global oil benchmarks tumbled across the board on Monday evening and into Tuesday morning (June 16), as markets are treating the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz as positive news.

Crude oil rates prices are falling from their crisis highs as traders anticipate a gradual recovery in Gulf exports, with WTI crude sliding to $80.75 (-4.9%) and Brent to $83.38 (-4.5%).

Murban crude was down 7% to $76.81 (down $6.21) as of 6.59am Tokyo time on Tuesday.

The broad sell-off comes after reports of a US–Iran de-escalation or preliminary peace framework, including expectations of reduced military confrontation and a possible easing of pressure on maritime flows.

The Strait of Hormuz oil trade chokepoint is no longer effectively closed, and a small but growing number of ships are beginning to cross, prompting traders to rapidly unwound a geopolitical risk premium built up during weeks of conflict in the Middle East.

That shift immediately triggered a repricing of global supply risk.

Updates on the major global crude oil benchmarks:

• WTI & Brent: down ~4–5% (sharp risk-premium unwind)
• Murban & regional Middle East crudes: down ~6–7% (most sensitive to Hormuz risk easing)
• OPEC Basket: down ~6.5% (broad producer basket repricing)
• DME Oman, Indian Basket, Mexican Basket: all down ~5–7% → global spillover decline
• Natural gas: slightly higher (+0.9%) (due to diverging energy market dynamics)

The current price movement shows a pattern, say industry analysts, i.e. the closer the crude benchmark is tied to Middle East flows, the sharper the decline.

GN

A few months ago, India’s economy was humming along nicely. Inflation was benign and growth was steady – the strongest among the world’s leading economies.

Now, India is increasingly counting the cost of the Iran war, which ​economists say will keep mounting if the deadlock between the U.S. and Iran remains unresolved and the blockage of oil supplies continues.

As the world’s third-largest oil importer and consumer, India ‌ships in about 90% of its oil, making its economy one of the most-exposed to the war and the prolonged war-related disruptions, which include the effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz through which a fifth of global oil and gas transit.

While India has announced a flurry of measures to contain the impact on the rupee and foreign exchange reserves, the latest of which were from the Reserve Bank of India on Friday, analysts say the broader drag on economic growth, inflation and government finances is set ​to increase so long as oil prices remain elevated.

“India is set for a series of supply shocks,” Michael Langham, emerging markets economist at Aberdeen Investments, said.

Apart from pressure on oil prices, the country ​also faces supply disruptions to fertiliser as a result of the Iran war, which will impact key crops like wheat when farmers are already bracing for an ⁠El Nino weather phenomenon that often portends drought.

“This will all drag on India’s growth outlook, yet the ability of the RBI to look through the energy price shock from the Strait of Hormuz will be increasingly difficult ​given the overlapping nature of these supply shocks,” Langham said.

At the end of last year, India’s central bank governor, Sanjay Malhotra, talked about a “rare Goldilocks” phase for the economy as it headed into 2026. Inflation levels were falling ​and growth remained relatively strong.

The Iran war upended that outlook.

India’s oil-and-gas import bill jumped 53% in April from March, prompting forecasts for the balance of payments (BoP) deficit — essentially money coming into the economy netted off against money going out — to balloon.

HSBC says that Friday’s series of steps may do a lot to limit the currency damage. Until Friday, it had expected India’s BoP deficit to swell to about $65 billion in 2026-27, but now expects the measures to improve the balance by about $30 billion. In 2025-26, India’s BoP ​deficit was at $25.2 billion or 0.6% of GDP.

India is also curbing gold imports, urging citizens to limit foreign travel and calling for more use of public transport to reduce oil demand.

“DIFFICULT POSITION”

But the macro picture is ​more challenging.

Benchmark international oil prices surged after the war began on Feb. 28, climbing to nearly $120 per barrel. Prices have eased, but they remain about 30% higher overall, while gas prices have risen 75% over the same period.

As a result, the ‌central bank ⁠sees inflation averaging 5.1% in the financial year to the end of March 2027, up from a 3.48% reading in April, and economic growth slipping to 6.6% from 7.7% in the previous year.

While the RBI kept rates on hold last week, interest rate swap markets are pricing in at least 25 basis points of rate hikes over the next three months and more than 75 basis points over the next year.

“India continues to face deeper structural challenges which has weighed on foreign direct investment, employment, manufacturing expansion, consumption, and nominal GDP growth,” said Sat Duhra, portfolio manager at Asia ex-Japan equity team at Janus Henderson Investors.

Duhra said the energy shock will undermine growth and ​pressure government finances.

“Any move to rein in public-sector capex ​to stabilise conditions would risk further slowing growth,” ⁠he said. “This leaves policymakers in a difficult position.”

STRONG OIL DEMAND

India delayed raising retail fuel prices as import costs mounted. Petrol and diesel are up less than 10% since then, compared with 50% or more in some other oil-importing countries in Asia.

Petrol and diesel prices are deregulated, but the government exerts significant influence as the majority shareholder ​of the key retail companies.

Elsewhere, high prices have reduced demand and helped balance undersupplied markets.

The government has said it will not compensate fuel retailers for losses, ​a strategy analysts say will ⁠come at a cost for the government, such as through reduced dividends, and so cut its financial firepower to handle the crisis.

The government’s fertiliser subsidy is likely to jump 20% in 2026/27, a government official said. Fertiliser is vital for India’s agrarian economy, which supports nearly half the population, but may be more so this year given the risk of drought owing to El Nino.

The government also cut gasoline and gasoil taxes, forgoing 140-billion-rupees in monthly revenues.

The government is targeting ⁠a fiscal deficit ​of 4.3% of GDP this financial year, but a Reuters poll forecast it would swell to 4.7% and some economists see it ​going as high as 5%.

India-based credit rating agency Crisil expects further small price increases in retail oil prices, which will have a wider impact.

“The broader effect will reverberate across the economy through higher-transport costs, pushing up both food and core inflation,” it said in a ​report.

Reporting by Nidhi Verma in New Delhi and Ira Dugal in Mumbai; Additional reporting by Vivek Kumar M and Bharath Rajeswaran in Bengaluru; Editing by Simon Webb and Neil Fullick

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