politics
Why forcing the strait open is high risk
As the war between the United States and Iran has entered its fourth week, the Strait of Hormuz has become the conflict’s most critical — and volatile — battlefield.
The narrow chokepoint, through which a significant share of the world’s oil passes, is now effectively paralysed.
Iran has largely blockaded the strait, snarling oil shipments and disrupting global trade.
Tehran, however, insists the waterway remains open to all shipping except vessels linked to what it calls its “enemies,” framing the disruption as a targeted response rather than a full closure.
The impact has already rippled through energy markets, pushing up fuel prices globally.
For Washington, reopening the strait is no longer just a military objective — it is an economic and political imperative.
But doing so may prove far more difficult than it appears.
The stakes have risen sharply in recent hours, underscoring how quickly the crisis could escalate.
Iran’s threat
Iran on Sunday threatened to target key infrastructure across the Middle East if US President Donald Trump follows through on his warning to “obliterate” the country’s power plants unless the Strait of Hormuz is fully reopened within 48 hours.
In a post on Truth Social, Trump issued the 48-hour ultimatum, sharply escalating pressure on Tehran’s leadership.
Iran’s military command responded that any such strike would trigger attacks on US-linked “energy, information technology and desalination infrastructure” across the region — signalling the risk of a much wider conflict.
The administration of Donald Trump is weighing several options, according to The New York Times, each carrying significant risk, complexity and the potential for escalation — with no quick or guaranteed solution in sight.
Analysts say Washington could next step up military, economic and naval pressure — from intensified strikes to tanker escorts — as it seeks to force Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz without triggering a wider war.
At a glance: Strait of Hormuz blockade
- ~20% of global oil & LNG flows through Hormuz in peacetime
- 24 vessel incidents reported since March 1, including 11 tankers (UKMTO)
- 8 seafarers killed, 4 missing, 10 injured (IMO)
- Shipping down ~95% — from ~120 daily transits to just 124 crossings in 3 weeks
- ~20,000 people affected, including seafarers, port workers and offshore crews
- 3,200 vessels stranded in the region, many large commercial ships
- 250 oil tankers stuck in the Gulf (≈5% of global tanker capacity)
- Ship fuel prices up ~90%, while crude shipping costs have doubled
Destroying threats from the air
The most immediate strategy is to neutralise Iran’s ability to target ships from land.
US warplanes have intensified strikes along Iran’s southern coast, targeting missile launchers, drone facilities and underground bunkers. Officials say the goal is to reduce the threat to slow-moving oil tankers before attempting to move them through the strait.
But even after weeks of bombardment, Iran retains residual capabilities. Military officials acknowledge that while its strike capacity has been significantly degraded, it has not been eliminated.
That means any attempt to reopen shipping lanes would still carry risk.
The minefield problem
Even more dangerous is the possibility that Iran has mined the strait.
Naval mines — some attached directly to ships, others floating just below the surface or lying on the seabed — are among the simplest yet most disruptive weapons in maritime warfare. A single successful strike could halt traffic entirely.
Clearing them is a painstaking and time-consuming process. Experts say it could take weeks, requiring specialised ships and exposing sailors to direct danger.
Worse, uncertainty itself is enough to paralyse shipping. Even the suspicion of mines can deter commercial vessels from entering the waterway.
Iran’s swarm tactics at sea
Beyond missiles and mines, Iran’s naval strategy relies heavily on speed and unpredictability.
The country’s Revolutionary Guard operates hundreds of fast-attack boats — small, agile vessels capable of launching sudden strikes using rockets or drones. These “swarm” tactics are designed to overwhelm defences and create chaos in crowded shipping lanes.
The US military has deployed aircraft such as A-10 warplanes to hunt these vessels, while also targeting drone storage sites along the coast. But Iran’s use of civilian ports to shelter assets complicates targeting and raises the risk of collateral damage.
A high-risk escalation: Kharg Island
One of the most aggressive options under consideration is a potential move against Kharg Island, Iran’s main oil export hub.
US strikes have already weakened defences there, hitting dozens of military targets. Some officials believe seizing or disabling the island could cripple Iran’s ability to finance the war.
But such an operation would mark a major escalation. Amphibious assaults involving thousands of Marines — or elite airborne units — would face resistance from entrenched Iranian forces and risk drawing the United States deeper into the conflict.
Even within the administration, there are mixed signals. While Trump has threatened decisive action, he has also publicly downplayed the likelihood of deploying ground troops.
Escorting tankers: Simple in theory, complex in reality
Another option — escorting commercial tankers through the strait — may sound straightforward, but military planners say it is among the most complicated.
Such operations require large numbers of naval assets, including destroyers equipped with advanced missile defence systems, supported by aircraft overhead. Even then, protecting slow-moving ships in a confined waterway remains a daunting challenge.
Past experience underscores the danger. During the 1980s “tanker war,” US-escorted vessels were still struck by mines and missiles, resulting in significant damage and loss of life.
A battlefield with no easy answers
Each option carries serious risks — from prolonged military engagement to wider regional escalation.
For now, the Strait of Hormuz stands as both a strategic chokepoint and a symbol of the war’s growing complexity.
Reopening it is essential — but doing so without triggering a broader conflict may prove far more difficult.
GN
politics
U.S.–Iran may meet in Pakistan for talks next week
The U.S. and Iran will likely return to Pakistan next week for a second round of peace negotiations, two senior Pakistani officials told MS NOW on Wednesday.
The latest sign of the countries’ continuing efforts to reach a diplomatic end to the war came from officials who are involved in finalizing decisions with the U.S. and Iranian teams, but did not want to be named because of sensitivities around negotiations, MS NOW reported.
The step toward resuming the stalled peace talks came as tensions in the Persian Gulf continued to rise, further imperiling a shaky two-week ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran.
Oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains at a trickle as Iran continues to pose threats to passing vessels and the U.S. enforces a retaliatory blockade of Iranian ports.
President Donald Trump, who said last week that the ceasefire agreement was subject to the strait being fully reopened, had complained about the lack of activity in the vital shipping route prior to announcing the blockade.
On Wednesday, Iranian state news outlet Fars reported that Tehran was suspending all petrochemical exports until further notice.
Still, the White House said Wednesday it is optimistic about a possible peace agreement coming into view.
“Discussions are being had,” and “we feel good about the prospects of a deal,” press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters at a White House briefing, while cautioning that the next round of in-person talks hasn’t yet been made official.
Leavitt also said those talks would “very likely” be held in Islamabad, “the same place as they were last time.” Pakistan has facilitated communications between the warring powers.
The first round of negotiations last weekend — a marathon 21-hour session led on the the U.S. side by Vice President JD Vance and special envoys Steve Witkoff and Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner — ended in no deal.
Pakistan is “the only mediator in this negotiation,” Leavitt said as she praised the regional power for its help so far.
Leavitt also said it is “not true” that the U.S. has requested an extension of the ceasefire, which is set to expire next Tuesday.
A senior U.S. official told CNBC on Wednesday morning, “The United States has not formally agreed to an extension of the ceasefire. There is continued engagement between the U.S. and Iran to reach a deal.”
CNBC
politics
US halts Iran sea trade despite hopes for talks
The United States said on Wednesday its military had completely halted trade going in and out of Iran by sea, while President Donald Trump said talks with Tehran on ending the war could resume this week, sending oil prices down for a second day.
Trump said negotiations between U.S. and Iranian officials could resume in Pakistan in the next two days and Vice President JD Vance, who led weekend talks that ended without a breakthrough, said he felt positive about where things stood.
“I think you’re going to be watching an amazing two days ahead,” Trump told ABC News reporter Jonathan Karl, adding he did not think it would be necessary to extend a two-week ceasefire that ends on April 21. “It could end either way, but I think a deal is preferable because then they can rebuild,” Trump said, according to a post by Karl on X. “They really do have a different regime now. No matter what, we took out the radicals.”
Officials from Pakistan, Iran and the Gulf also said negotiating teams from the U.S. and Iran could return to Pakistan later this week, although one senior Iranian source said no date had been set.
Despite the optimistic note, more vessels were being turned back under the U.S. blockade on Iranian ports, including a U.S.-sanctioned and Chinese-owned tanker Rich Starry that was making its way back to the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday after exiting the Arabian Gulf.
Admiral Brad Cooper, the head of the U.S. Central Command, said American forces had completely halted economic trade going in and out of Iran by sea, which he said fuels 90% of Iran’s economy.
“In less than 36 hours since the blockade was implemented, U.S. forces have completely halted economic trade going into and out of Iran by sea,” Cooper said in a post on X.
U.S. and Iran begin a battle of economic endurance in the Strait of Hormuz
Earlier the U.S. military said it had intercepted eight Iran-linked oil tankers since the start of the blockade on Monday, according to the Wall Street Journal.
Trump, speaking to the New York Post on Tuesday, said his negotiators are likely to be back, thanks largely to the “great job” Pakistan’s army chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir, was doing to moderate the talks.
Later on Tuesday, at an event in Georgia, U.S. Vice President JD Vance said Trump wanted to make a “grand bargain” with Iran but there was a lot of mistrust between the two countries.
“You are not going to solve that problem overnight,” he said. The signs of diplomatic engagement to end the conflict that began on Feb. 28 helped calm oil markets, pressing benchmark prices below US$100 for a second day on Wednesday. Asian stocks rose while the safe-haven dollar stabilized after falling for a seventh straight session overnight.
China’s Xi warns global order ‘crumbling’ amid Iran war chaos
However, the market stands to lose access to further supply as the U.S. does not plan to renew a 30-day waiver of sanctions on Iranian oil at sea that expires this week, according to two U.S. officials, and quietly let a similar waiver on Russian oil run out on the weekend.
The war has prompted Iran to effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial global waterway for crude and gas transport, and cut shipments from the Gulf to global buyers, particularly in Asia and Europe, leaving importers scrambling to secure alternative supplies. About 5,000 people have died in the hostilities, including about 3,000 in Iran and 2,000 in Lebanon.
Sticking points
Iran’s nuclear ambitions were a key sticking point at the weekend talks. The U.S. had proposed a 20-year suspension of all nuclear activity by Iran, while Tehran had suggested a halt of three to five years, according to people familiar with the proposals.
Speaking in Seoul, the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Rafael Grossi, said the length of any moratorium on Iranian uranium enrichment was a political decision and it was possible Tehran might accept a compromise as a confidence-building act.
The U.S. has also pressed for any enriched nuclear material to be removed from Iran, while Tehran has demanded that international sanctions against it be removed.
Israel and Lebanon meet in Washington for first direct diplomatic talks in decades
One source involved in the negotiations in Pakistan said back-channel talks since the weekend had produced progress in closing that gap, bringing the two sides closer to a deal that could be put forward at a new round of talks.
However, in a major complication for peace prospects, Israel has continued to attack Lebanon as it targets Hezbollah, an Iran-backed militant group. Israel and the U.S. say that campaign is not covered by the ceasefire, while Iran insists it is. On Tuesday, the U.K., Canada, Japan and seven other countries condemned the killings of UN peacekeepers in Lebanon and called for “an urgent end to hostilities.”
Reuters
politics
‘I don’t fear Trump,’ says Pope Leo after ‘weak’ jibe
Pope Leo said he did not fear the Trump administration and would continue to speak out against war after Donald Trump delivered an extraordinary broadside against him in which he said he did not think the Chicago-born pontiff was “doing a very good job”, while also suggesting he should “stop catering to the radical left”.
In remarks that have been widely criticised, the US president used a lengthy social media post to sharply criticise Leo while he flew from Florida to Washington on Sunday night, then continued in comments on the tarmac to reporters. “I’m not a fan of Pope Leo,” he said.
Trump made the comments after Leo suggested over the weekend that a “delusion of omnipotence” was fuelling the US-Israeli war in Iran. While it is not unusual for popes and presidents to be at cross purposes, it is exceedingly rare for the pope to criticise a US leader – and for the president to respond in such a stinging manner.
“Pope Leo is WEAK on Crime, and terrible for Foreign Policy,” the president wrote in his post, adding: “I don’t want a Pope who thinks it’s OK for Iran to have a Nuclear Weapon.” He repeated that sentiment in comments to reporters, saying: “We don’t like a pope who says it’s OK to have a nuclear weapon.”
Later, he posted a clearly AI-generated image of himself as a Jesus-like figure, appearing to “cure” a man. He deleted it after a backlash from some of his religious supporters.
Leo presided over an evening prayer service in St Peter’s Basilica in the Vatican on Saturday, the day the US and Iran began face-to-face negotiations in Pakistan during a fragile ceasefire. The pope did not mention the US or Trump by name, but his tone and message appeared to be directed at Trump and American officials, who have boasted of US military superiority and justified the war in religious terms.
Leo arrived in Algeria on Monday as part of an 11-day tour of Africa, and during the papal flight he told reporters he was not a politician and that he did not want to enter into a debate with Trump.
“The message of the church, my message, the message of the gospel: blessed are the peacemakers. I do not look at my role as being political, a politician.” Leo said he did not think the message of the gospel should “be abused, as some are doing”.
“I continue to speak strongly against war, seeking to promote peace, dialogue and multilateralism among states to find solutions to problems,” he said.
Responding to a question from a US journalist, the pope said: “I’m not afraid of the Trump administration or speaking out loudly of the message of the gospel, which is what I believe I am here to do, what the church is here to do.”
US bishops have defended Leo, saying he is not a political rival but a “vicar of Christ who speaks from the truth of the gospel” while their Italian counterparts called on Trump to respect Leo and his ministry.
The Iranian president, Masoud Pezeshkian, said he condemned Trump’s “insult” in a message addressed to Leo on social media. “On behalf of the great nation of Iran, I condemn the insult to Your Excellency and declare that the desecration of Jesus (peace be upon him), the prophet of peace and brotherhood, is unacceptable to any free person,” he wrote.
Italian politicians from across the spectrum also criticised Trump’s comments. Matteo Salvini, the far-right deputy prime minister who has been a staunch supporter of Trump, said: “If anyone is working hard on the issue of peace and conflict resolution, it’s Pope Leo. Attacking the pope, a symbol of peace and a spiritual guide for billions of Catholics, doesn’t seem like a useful or intelligent thing to do.”
Italy’s far-right prime minister, Giorgia Meloni, said Trump’s words were “unacceptable”. But that was only after she came under pressure from the opposition when she omitted to address the remarks in a social media post earlier on Monday that praised Leo for his role in “fostering the return of peace” and his trip to Africa. Her government has formed strategic partnerships on the continent, mainly aimed at addressing irregular immigration.
Meloni, who is ideologically in tune with Trump and has nurtured good relations with him, said in a statement: “I find President Trump’s words toward the Holy Father unacceptable. The pope is the head of the Catholic church, and it is right and proper that he calls for peace and condemns all forms of war.”
Matteo Renzi, Italy’s liberal former prime minister, said it was a “duty” to defend the pope. “Not only for Catholics but also, and above all, for the laity,” he said.
“It’s been centuries since we’ve seen such blatant aggression [against a pope],” Renzi said, describing the pontiff as a “bridge builder”, in contrast to Trump, who he described as “a destroyer of relationships and civilisations”.
Leo’s criticisms of the war have intensified since the US-Israeli strikes on Iran began. In ones of his harshest condemnations, he said God “does not listen to the prayers of those who wage war, but rejects them”.
This was seen as a rebuke to the US defence secretary, Pete Hegseth, who said he prayed for “overwhelming violence of action against those who deserve no mercy”.
Leo has also referenced an Old Testament passage from Isaiah, saying that “even though you make many prayers, I will not listen – your hands are full of blood”.
Before the ceasefire, when Trump warned of mass strikes against Iranian power plants and other infrastructure and that “an entire civilization will die tonight”, Leo described such sentiments as “truly unacceptable”.
In his social media post on Sunday night, however, Trump went far beyond the war in Iran in criticising Leo. The president wrote: “I don’t want a Pope who thinks it’s terrible that America attacked Venezuela, a Country that was sending massive amounts of Drugs into the United States.” That was a reference to the Trump administration ousting the Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro in January.
“I don’t want a Pope who criticizes the President of the United States because I’m doing exactly what I was elected, IN A LANDSLIDE, to do,” Trump added, referencing his 2024 election victory.
Trump also suggested in the post that Leo only got his position “because he was an American, and they thought that would be the best way to deal with President Donald J Trump”.
“If I wasn’t in the White House, Leo wouldn’t be in the Vatican,” Trump claimed, adding: “Leo should get his act together as Pope, use Common Sense, stop catering to the Radical Left, and focus on being a Great Pope, not a Politician. It’s hurting him very badly and, more importantly, it’s hurting the Catholic Church!”
In his subsequent comments to reporters, Trump remained highly critical, saying: “I don’t think he’s doing a very good job. He likes crime I guess,” adding: “He’s a very liberal person.”
In the 2024 election, Trump won 55% of Catholic voters, according to AP VoteCast, an extensive survey of the electorate. But Trump’s administration also has close ties to conservative evangelical Protestant leaders and has claimed heavenly endorsement for the war on Iran.
Hegseth has urged Americans to pray for victory “in the name of Jesus Christ”. When Trump was asked whether he thought God approved of the war, he said: “I do, because God is good – because God is good and God wants to see people taken care of.”
The US vice-president, JD Vance, urged the Vatican to “stick to matters of morality”.
Vance told Fox News: “In some cases, it would be best for the Vatican to stick to matters of morality … and let the president of the United States stick to dictating American public policy.”
The Guardian
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