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politics

FAO warns of agri-food shock from Strait of Hormuz closure

The Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) of the United Nations warned that a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz risks triggering a structural agrifood shock, which could culminate in a severe global food price crisis within six to 12 months.

The situation could be further exacerbated by the onset of the El Niño weather phenomenon, which is expected to cause droughts and disrupt rainfall and temperature patterns across multiple regions.

Because farmers are forced to plant with fewer inputs, crop yields are expected to drop over the next six to 12 months, resulting in global food shortages and severe inflation, as per ReliefWeb.

The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway connecting the Arabian Gulf to the open ocean, acts as a global artery for both energy and agriculture. It facilitates the trade of up to  of internationally traded fertilizers and a significant portion of the sulfur required to manufacture them, as per FAO

The Chain Reaction

Energy epikes: A prolonged closure drives up oil and gas prices. Energy is required to physically move and operate the global food system.

Input shortages: Ships carrying vital materials (like nitrogen and phosphate) remain idle. Farmers facing shortages or prohibitively high costs for these nutrients cannot maintain optimal soil fertility.

Reduced yields: With fewer agricultural inputs available, crop yields per acre drop. This particularly threatens staples like wheat, rice, and maize. 

The 6-to-12-month lag

Because the world has some existing food reserves, a “buffer” period prevents immediate panic.

However, during this 6-to-12-month timeframe, planting seasons will inevitably pass without the necessary inputs, FAO warns.

When these lower-yield harvests materialize down the line, global food supplies tighten, culminating in skyrocketing retail food prices and widespread inflation. 

Humanitarian flows

To mitigate this outcome, the FAO recommended establishing alternative trade routes, managing export restrictions, safeguarding humanitarian aid flows, and building strategic reserves to absorb rising transport costs.

The organisation stressed that the window for proactive intervention is narrowing rapidly, noting that current decisions by farmers and governments regarding fertiliser application, imports, and financing will dictate whether a major crisis materialises.

According to the FAO, the shock is projected to ripple through consecutive phases, impacting energy, fertilisers, seeds, crop yields, and commodity prices before culminating in food inflation.

GN

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world

Saudi Arabia launches Red Sea shipping route

The Saudi Ports Authority (Mawani) has launched a new cargo shipping service linking Jeddah Islamic Port with Salalah in Oman and the Port of Djibouti, as the Kingdom accelerates efforts to strengthen maritime connectivity and position itself as a regional logistics hub.

According to Saudi state television, the service has a carrying capacity of up to 1,730 twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) and is aimed at supporting the kingdom’s import and export activity while expanding links with regional and international ports.

The move forms part of Saudi Arabia’s broader logistics strategy under Vision 2030, which seeks to diversify economy and strengthen the kingdom’s role in global trade routes connecting Asia, Africa and Europe. Mawani recently launched the “Red Sea Express” cargo shipping service through King Fahd Industrial Port in Yanbu, linking Saudi Arabia with Ain Sokhna in Egypt and Aqaba in Jordan to improve regional trade and supply-chain efficiency.

The Kingdom has invested heavily in ports, shipping infrastructure and logistics corridors in recent years as GCC countries compete to become major transport and trade hubs.

GN

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politics

Pakistan hopes to host US-Iran peace talks ‘very soon

Pakistani prime minister Shehbaz Sharif has congratulated Donald Trump on his peace efforts and said Pakistan hopes to host another round of talks between the US and Iran “very soon”.

Sharif also said in a post on X that the US president held a “very useful and productive” phone call earlier in the day with the leaders of Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Turkey, Egypt, the UAE, Jordan and Pakistan, with Pakistani army chief Syed Asim Munir also on the line.

Sharif said:

The discussions provided a useful opportunity to exchange views on the current regional situation and how to move the ongoing peace efforts forward to bring lasting peace in the region. Pakistan will continue its peace efforts with utmost sincerity and we hope to host the next round of talks very soon.”

US vice-president JD Vance led a US delegation to Islamabad in the first round of peace talks with Iran six weeks ago, which ended without an agreement.

Iran executed one person for charges related to sending information to the US and Israel during the war, the Iranian judiciary’s Mizan news agency reported on Sunday, according to Reuters.

The individual was sending data about Iran’s defence industry to “the enemy”, the news agency alleged.

The draft agreement between the US and Iran also makes clear the Israel- Hezbollah war in Lebanon would end, Axios is reporting.

The newsite quotes an unnamed Israeli official as saying Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu expressed concern about that condition – and other aspects of the deal – during a call with Donald Trump on Saturday.

The report went on:

The US official said it would not be a ‘one-sided ceasefire’ and if Hezbollah tried to rearm or instigate attacks, Israel would be allowed to take action to prevent it. ‘If Hezbollah behaves, Israel will behave.’”

As just mentioned, the report says the agreement is only in unfinalised draft form and “could still fall apart”, according to a US official.

Peace draft involves reopening Hormuz strait during 60-day truce extension – report

The agreement the US and Iran are reportedly close to signing involves a 60-day ceasefire extension during which the strait of Hormuz would be reopened, according to Axios.

During that time Iran would be able to freely sell oil and negotiations would be held on curbing Iran’s nuclear program, the US news site is reporting, citing an American official, while also saying the details were in an agreement “draft” as it currently stood.

“Those details have not been confirmed by the Iranian side, though Tehran has also indicated a deal is getting close,” the report says.

Some of the draft details look to align with what is being reported from sources quoted by the Associated Press and the New York Times, as our full report details.

The deal would avoid an escalation of the war and decrease the pressure on the global oil supply, Axios says, adding:

However, it’s unclear whether it will lead to a lasting peace agreement that also addresses President Trump’s nuclear demands.”

The report says that during the 60-day Hormuz strait reopening, Iran would agree to clear mines it deployed in the waterway and allow ships to pass freely. In exchange, the US would lift its blockade on Iranian ports.

The report also says:

Both Trump and the mediators have indicated the deal could be announced on Sunday, though it has not been finalized and could still fall apart.”

Pakistan says ‘encouraging’ progress towards peace deal

The Pakistani army has said the negotiations with Iran resulted in “encouraging” progress towards a final understanding.

The deal being negotiated was “fairly comprehensive to terminate the war”, two Pakistani sources involved in the negotiations to end the war told Reuters.

Iran had said on Saturday that it was working towards a memorandum of understanding with the US laying out an approach to ending the war after its top officials met with Pakistani army chief Asim Munir.

Reuters quoted sources as saying the proposed framework would unfold in three stages: formally ending the war, resolving the crisis in the strait of Hormuz and launching a 30-day window for negotiations on a broader agreement, which can be extended.

One of the Pakistani sources also there was no guarantee the US would accept the memorandum. If it did, it would lead to further talks after the Eid holiday ended on Friday.

On Saturday Donald Trump told Axios he expected to decide on Sunday whether to resume attacks on Iran. “Either we reach a good deal or I’ll blow them to a thousand hells,” the news site quoted him as saying.

The Guardian

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Analytics

Saudi Arabia to burn more oil for power this summer

Saudi Arabia is expected to burn more imported fuel oil for power generation this summer following ​a loss of natural gas supply from oilfields that have been shut after the Iran war curbed its oil exports, ‌analysts said.

The rise in fuel oil use at power plants just as electricity demand jumps for cooling in the summer marks a setback for the kingdom’s push to switch to cleaner fuels.

The world’s top oil exporter has been forced to shut more than 3 million barrels per day of oil production after an Iranian blockade on the ​Strait of Hormuz halted crude exports from Ras Tanura, which in turn has reduced output of gas released with oil production.

Gas ​output slipped to 10.5 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in the first quarter, from 10.7 bcfd in the fourth ⁠quarter of 2025, despite the start-up of the Jafurah gas field in December, Saudi Aramco (2222.SE), opens new tab said in its latest quarterly earnings report.

To replace gas ​at power plants, Aramco ramped up fuel oil imports to about 1.7 million tons (360,000 bpd) in April, up 86% on-year, Vortexa data showed, with most ​of these imports discharged at terminals linked to power and desalination plants including Jeddah South and Shuqaiq Steam.

“The sharp increase in fuel oil imports is a leading indicator that oil burn will rise above year-ago levels,” Rahul Choudhary, vice president, oil & gas research at consultancy Rystad Energy, said.

The kingdom’s power demand typically rises from April and ​peaks in August, boosting crude, high-sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) and gas use at power plants.

The burning of crude and fuel oil for power could breach ​1 million barrels per day this summer, countering efforts to switch to more gas and renewables and undoing the 991,000 bpd low seen in 2025, Choudhary said.

Saudi ‌Aramco declined ⁠to comment. The Saudi government communications office did not respond to a request for comment.

ARAMCO PRIORITISES CRUDE FOR EXPORTS

Saudi Aramco is expected to burn less crude for power this summer as it prioritises crude, mostly Arab Light, for export via the East-West pipeline to the Red Sea port of Yanbu and as HSFO is cheaper than Saudi crude, analysts said.

Last year, Saudi Arabia’s direct crude burn averaged 593,500 barrels per day (bpd) between June and September, data from ​the Joint Organisations Data Initiative (JODI) showed.

Crude burn typically peaks between July and August

Analysts’ ​views vary on how much ⁠crude Saudi Arabia will burn for power generation this summer.

Wood Mackenzie expects a 5,000 to 15,000 bpd drop in crude burn from an average of 629,000 bpd in June to August 2025.

“Every barrel of Arab Light crude ​burned domestically represents a significant loss in windfall export revenue,” said Jayadev D, oil research analyst at WoodMac.

Rystad ​Energy expects crude ⁠consumption for power to average about 540,000 to 550,000 bpd this summer.

“However, if the Hormuz disruption deepens or extends well into Q3, Aramco may pivot from substitution to direct crude burn as a contingency,” Choudhary said.

Koen Wessels, head of demand at Energy Aspects, expects Saudi Arabia to burn more crude this summer ⁠than in ​2025 as it is constrained by how much crude supply it can divert to Red ​Sea ports.

Energy Aspects expects Hormuz transits to remain disrupted through the end of May, with a 50% recovery on pre-war tonnage in June, 60% in July and 70% in August, ​Wessels said.

Thomson Reuters

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