politics

Why forcing the strait open is high risk

As the war between the United States and Iran has entered its fourth week, the Strait of Hormuz has become the conflict’s most critical — and volatile — battlefield.

The narrow chokepoint, through which a significant share of the world’s oil passes, is now effectively paralysed.

Iran has largely blockaded the strait, snarling oil shipments and disrupting global trade.

Tehran, however, insists the waterway remains open to all shipping except vessels linked to what it calls its “enemies,” framing the disruption as a targeted response rather than a full closure.

The impact has already rippled through energy markets, pushing up fuel prices globally.

For Washington, reopening the strait is no longer just a military objective — it is an economic and political imperative.

But doing so may prove far more difficult than it appears.

The stakes have risen sharply in recent hours, underscoring how quickly the crisis could escalate.

Iran’s threat

Iran on Sunday threatened to target key infrastructure across the Middle East if US President Donald Trump follows through on his warning to “obliterate” the country’s power plants unless the Strait of Hormuz is fully reopened within 48 hours.

In a post on Truth Social, Trump issued the 48-hour ultimatum, sharply escalating pressure on Tehran’s leadership.

Iran’s military command responded that any such strike would trigger attacks on US-linked “energy, information technology and desalination infrastructure” across the region — signalling the risk of a much wider conflict.

The administration of Donald Trump is weighing several options, according to The New York Times, each carrying significant risk, complexity and the potential for escalation — with no quick or guaranteed solution in sight.

Analysts say Washington could next step up military, economic and naval pressure — from intensified strikes to tanker escorts — as it seeks to force Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz without triggering a wider war.

At a glance: Strait of Hormuz blockade

~20% of global oil & LNG flows through Hormuz in peacetime
24 vessel incidents reported since March 1, including 11 tankers (UKMTO)
8 seafarers killed, 4 missing, 10 injured (IMO)
Shipping down ~95% — from ~120 daily transits to just 124 crossings in 3 weeks
~20,000 people affected, including seafarers, port workers and offshore crews
3,200 vessels stranded in the region, many large commercial ships
250 oil tankers stuck in the Gulf (≈5% of global tanker capacity)
Ship fuel prices up ~90%, while crude shipping costs have doubled

Destroying threats from the air

The most immediate strategy is to neutralise Iran’s ability to target ships from land.

US warplanes have intensified strikes along Iran’s southern coast, targeting missile launchers, drone facilities and underground bunkers. Officials say the goal is to reduce the threat to slow-moving oil tankers before attempting to move them through the strait.

But even after weeks of bombardment, Iran retains residual capabilities. Military officials acknowledge that while its strike capacity has been significantly degraded, it has not been eliminated.

That means any attempt to reopen shipping lanes would still carry risk.

The minefield problem

Even more dangerous is the possibility that Iran has mined the strait.

Naval mines — some attached directly to ships, others floating just below the surface or lying on the seabed — are among the simplest yet most disruptive weapons in maritime warfare. A single successful strike could halt traffic entirely.

Clearing them is a painstaking and time-consuming process. Experts say it could take weeks, requiring specialised ships and exposing sailors to direct danger.

Worse, uncertainty itself is enough to paralyse shipping. Even the suspicion of mines can deter commercial vessels from entering the waterway.

Iran’s swarm tactics at sea

Beyond missiles and mines, Iran’s naval strategy relies heavily on speed and unpredictability.

The country’s Revolutionary Guard operates hundreds of fast-attack boats — small, agile vessels capable of launching sudden strikes using rockets or drones. These “swarm” tactics are designed to overwhelm defences and create chaos in crowded shipping lanes.

The US military has deployed aircraft such as A-10 warplanes to hunt these vessels, while also targeting drone storage sites along the coast. But Iran’s use of civilian ports to shelter assets complicates targeting and raises the risk of collateral damage.

A high-risk escalation: Kharg Island

One of the most aggressive options under consideration is a potential move against Kharg Island, Iran’s main oil export hub.

US strikes have already weakened defences there, hitting dozens of military targets. Some officials believe seizing or disabling the island could cripple Iran’s ability to finance the war.

But such an operation would mark a major escalation. Amphibious assaults involving thousands of Marines — or elite airborne units — would face resistance from entrenched Iranian forces and risk drawing the United States deeper into the conflict.

Even within the administration, there are mixed signals. While Trump has threatened decisive action, he has also publicly downplayed the likelihood of deploying ground troops.

Escorting tankers: Simple in theory, complex in reality

Another option — escorting commercial tankers through the strait — may sound straightforward, but military planners say it is among the most complicated.

Such operations require large numbers of naval assets, including destroyers equipped with advanced missile defence systems, supported by aircraft overhead. Even then, protecting slow-moving ships in a confined waterway remains a daunting challenge.

Past experience underscores the danger. During the 1980s “tanker war,” US-escorted vessels were still struck by mines and missiles, resulting in significant damage and loss of life.

A battlefield with no easy answers

Each option carries serious risks — from prolonged military engagement to wider regional escalation.

For now, the Strait of Hormuz stands as both a strategic chokepoint and a symbol of the war’s growing complexity.

Reopening it is essential — but doing so without triggering a broader conflict may prove far more difficult.

politics

Trump won’t rush Iran deal, US blockade stays until agreement signed

US President Donald Trump defended Iran negotiations Sunday, saying critics “don’t know deal details” and declaring: “I don’t make bad deals.” Secretary of State Marco Rubio cautioned a nuclear agreement cannot be achieved “in 72 hours on the back of a napkin.” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he and Trump agree any final agreement must eliminate Iran’s “nuclear threat entirely.” Hezbollah’s Naim Qassem expressed hope for a deal that could include Lebanon, while Iranian media warned talks could still collapse. Follow our live coverage for the latest updates.

01:21 AM, 25 May 2026

Relationship with Iran ‘more professional, productive’ — Trump

US President Donald J. Trump defended ongoing negotiations with Iran, calling it more professional and productive — sharply contrasting them with the 2015 Iran nuclear deal negotiated under former President Barack Obama.

He also insisted the current talks are proceeding deliberately with the US maintaining leverage through a naval blockade.

11:10 PM, 24 May 2026

Rubio accuses Hezbollah of trying to ‘drag Lebanon back into chaos’

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio accused Hezbollah in a statement Sunday of trying to plunge Lebanon “back into chaos.”

Rubio denounced what he called Hezbollah’s “reckless call to overthrow Lebanon’s democratically elected government” and said the pro-Iran armed group was “actively trying to drag Lebanon back into chaos and destruction.”

10:40 PM, 24 May 2026

Lebanon says Israeli strikes kill 2 including paramedic

Lebanon’s health ministry said two people including a paramedic from the Hezbollah-affiliated Islamic Health Committee were killed Sunday in Israeli strikes on the south that also wounded six other rescuers.

“Successive Israeli enemy strikes on the town of Arab Salim in the Nabatieh district killed two people including a paramedic from the Health Committee and wounded 10, including two Committee paramedics and four others from the Risala association,” a ministry statement said, condemning an “ongoing series of attacks on the health and emergency sector in south Lebanon”.

The Risala Scouts association rescuers are affiliated with the Hezbollah-allied Amal movement.

10:30 PM, 24 May 2026

Trump defends Iran talks, says critics ‘don’t know deal details’

US President Donald Trump has posted on Truth Social that any potential deal with Iran would be ‘good and proper,’ contrasting it with what he described as the Obama-era agreement, which he said gave Iran ‘massive amounts of cash’ and a ‘clear and open path to a Nuclear Weapon.’

Trump said the current negotiations are ‘the exact opposite,’ adding that the agreement is not yet fully negotiated and warning critics not to speculate on details that have not been finalised.

He also said past leaders “should have solved this problem many years ago,” adding: ‘I don’t make bad deals.’

10:15 PM, 24 May 2026

Iran nuclear deal can’t be done ‘in 72 hours,’ Rubio tells NYT

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio told The New York Times on Sunday that an agreement with Iran had garnered regional support but a nuclear deal couldn’t be achieved “in 72 hours on the back of a napkin.”

His comments came after US President Donald Trump told his negotiators “not to rush into a deal” with Iran to end the three-month war.

“So right now, we have seven or eight countries in the region that are endorsing this approach, and we’re prepared to move forward on this approach,” he said.

09:15 PM, 24 May 2026

US media reports no US-Iran agreement expected today

CNN is reporting that no US–Iran deal is expected to be signed today, citing a senior administration official who said key details of a potential deal are still being negotiated.

Another official told the network that Iran has committed to reopening the Strait of Hormuz and disposing of its stockpile of enriched uranium, although final terms have yet to be confirmed.

09:01 PM, 24 May 2026

Hezbollah chief says hopes for Iran-US deal and that it includes Lebanon

Hezbollah chief Naim Qassem expressed hope on Sunday for an agreement between his group’s backer Iran and the United States and that Lebanon would be part of its terms.

“God willing, this agreement will be finalised and there are signs of its completion, and accordingly that we too will be among those included in this agreement – an agreement of a full cessation of hostilities,” he said in a televised address.

Iran’s Tasnim news agency reported that “a memorandum of understanding (MOU) would first be announced, stressing an end to fighting on all fronts, including in Lebanon”, while Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said US President Donald Trump had reaffirmed his support for Israel’s right to defend itself against threats, including from Hezbollah.

08:52 PM, 24 May 2026

Hezbollah chief urges Lebanon govt to abandon direct talks with Israel

Hezbollah chief Naim Qassem on Sunday again urged Lebanese authorities to abandon direct talks with Israel, ahead of a fourth round of such discussions in Washington early next month.

“Direct negotiations are completely unacceptable and are a pure gain for Israel,” he said. Addressing Lebanese authorities, he added: “Abandon the direct negotiations and do not give to America so that it gives to Israel… don’t be with them and stab us in the back.”

10:02 PM, 24 May 2026

US-Iran deal could still collapse amid ‘obstruction’ claims

The United States is obstructing certain clauses of a potential agreement, including provisions related to the release of Iran’s frozen assets according to Iran’s semi-official news agency Tasnim.

The report said this means there is still a possibility the agreement could be “cancelled,” as negotiations remain ongoing and key issues remain unresolved.

08:19 PM, 24 May 2026

Hezbollah chief says group’s disarmament unacceptable

Hezbollah chief Naim Qassem said Sunday that his group’s disarmament was unacceptable and amounted to “annihilation”, as Lebanon prepares for a new round of direct talks with Israel in Washington early next month.

“Disarmament means stripping Lebanon of its defensive capability and the capability of the resistance (Hezbollah) and this people, paving the way for annihilation,” he said in a televised address, adding: “Disarmament is annihilation and we cannot accept it.”

A state monopoly on weapons demanded by Lebanese authorities “at this stage is aimed at targeting the resistance and is an Israeli project”, he added.

07:42 PM, 24 May 2026

Netanyahu says Trump agrees Israel has right to defence

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Sunday that US President Donald Trump had reaffirmed his support for Israel’s right to defend itself against threats on all fronts, including from Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon.

“President Trump reiterated Israel’s right to defend itself against threats on all fronts, including in Lebanon,” Netanyahu said in a statement following a conversation between the two leaders on Saturday night.

07:28 PM, 24 May 2026

Oman, Iran discuss navigation security and US-Iran talks

Oman’s Foreign Minister Sayyid Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi has received a verbal message from Iranian Foreign Minister Dr. Seyed Abbas Araghchi during a meeting with visiting Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi and a diplomatic delegation in Muscat.

According to details, the message was delivered within the framework of ongoing consultations between the two neighbouring countries and focused on developments in Iranian-US talks mediated by Pakistan, as well as efforts to support their success.

The Foreign Minister receives a verbal message from the Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The message, delivered by the Deputy Foreign Minister of Iran for Legal and International Affairs, touched upon the ongoing Iranian-US talks mediated by Pakistan… pic.twitter.com/dmhqagEUq9

— Oman News Agency (@ONA_eng) May 24, 2026

Discussions also covered the resumption of safe and sustainable freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, with both sides stressing the importance of strengthening maritime security and protecting trade and supply chains in line with international law.

07:25 PM, 24 May 2026

Israel PM says he and Trump agreed any final Iran deal must end ‘nuclear threat entirely’

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Sunday that he and US President Donald Trump had agreed that any final deal with Iran must fully end the Islamic republic’s “nuclear threat”.

“President Trump and I agreed that any final agreement with Iran must eliminate the nuclear threat entirely. This means dismantling Iran’s uranium enrichment facilities and removing enriched nuclear material from its territory,” Netanyahu said in a statement, referring to a conversation between the two leaders on Saturday night.

I spoke last night with President @realDonaldTrump about the memorandum of understanding to reopen the Straits of Hormuz and the upcoming negotiations toward a final agreement on Iran’s nuclear program.

06:35 PM, 24 May 2026

Trump says US will not ‘rush into a deal’ with Iran

President Donald Trump said Sunday that he had told US negotiators “not to rush into a deal” with Iran, amid anticipation that an agreement to end the war in the Middle East was close.

“The negotiations are proceeding in an orderly and constructive manner, and I have informed my representatives not to rush into a deal in that time is on our side,” Trump wrote on his Truth Social account.

“The Blockade will remain in full force and effect until an agreement is reached, certified, and signed.”

politics

Iran ‘blinking’ over Strait of Hormuz tensions

Iran appears to be in the process of “blinking” over the Strait of Hormuz, according to ex-CIA director David Petraeus.

Speaking to CNBC’s Lisa Kim at the UBS Asian Investment Conference, Petraeus, chairman of the KKR Global Institute, said that an initial successful peace deal with Tehran would see the Strait opened without any conditions.

Iran also must not be able to control traffic, charge tolls through it, or make threats of future closure, and “it appears that that may be in the offing,” he added.

This comes come after U.S. President Donald Trump said over the weekend that talks to end the war with Iran and reopen the Strait of Hormuz are proceeding, but urged his negotiating team not to rush into a deal.

Peace talks face a key hurdle in Tehran’s insistence on keeping an enriched uranium stockpile within the country and levying tolls for passage via the Strait.

Petraeus, a retired U.S. general who had combat commands in both Iraq and Afghanistan, said if Iran is allowed to have some control over the critical waterway, Iran may be “strategically strengthened” despite being militarily weakened from U.S. and Israeli strikes.

“Their whole navy is largely sunk, except for fast boats, their missile capacity has been substantially reduced, headquarters, military facilities, no air force, and so forth,” he said.

However, Iran still could threaten to shut the Strait by either mining the waterway or by using drones, missiles and fast boats to hit commercial shipping, and they can prevent the strait from being restored to its pre-war state.

While the Strait is an important part of the deal in the region, Petraeus said that other issues need to be dealt with as well, including Tehran’s nuclear program and its funding for proxy groups like Hezbollah.

“They should be addressed, but it’s not at all clear to me that that’s going to be in the near future,” he said.

On Monday, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio reportedly said in New Delhi that a deal could happen today, according to France 24.

A Reuters report also said that Rubio told reporters that the U.S. ⁠will give diplomacy every chance to succeed before exploring “alternatives.”

CNBC

world

Saudi Arabia launches Red Sea shipping route

The Saudi Ports Authority (Mawani) has launched a new cargo shipping service linking Jeddah Islamic Port with Salalah in Oman and the Port of Djibouti, as the Kingdom accelerates efforts to strengthen maritime connectivity and position itself as a regional logistics hub.

According to Saudi state television, the service has a carrying capacity of up to 1,730 twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) and is aimed at supporting the kingdom’s import and export activity while expanding links with regional and international ports.

The move forms part of Saudi Arabia’s broader logistics strategy under Vision 2030, which seeks to diversify economy and strengthen the kingdom’s role in global trade routes connecting Asia, Africa and Europe. Mawani recently launched the “Red Sea Express” cargo shipping service through King Fahd Industrial Port in Yanbu, linking Saudi Arabia with Ain Sokhna in Egypt and Aqaba in Jordan to improve regional trade and supply-chain efficiency.

The Kingdom has invested heavily in ports, shipping infrastructure and logistics corridors in recent years as GCC countries compete to become major transport and trade hubs.