Business

UBS: AI could jolt credit markets

The stock market has been quick to punish software firms and other perceived losers from the artificial intelligence boom in recent weeks, but credit markets are likely to be the next place where AI disruption risk shows up, according to UBS analyst Matthew Mish.

Tens of billions of dollars in corporate loans are likely to default over the next year as companies, especially software and data services firms owned by private equity, get squeezed by the AI threat, Mish said in a Wednesday research note.

“We’re pricing in part of what we call a rapid, aggressive disruption scenario,” Mish, UBS head of credit strategy, told CNBC in an interview.

The UBS analyst said he and his colleagues have rushed to update their forecasts for this year and beyond because the latest models from Anthropic and OpenAI have sped up expectations of the arrival of AI disruption.

“The market has been slow to react because they didn’t really think it was going to happen this fast,” Mish said. “People are having to recalibrate the whole way that they look at evaluating credit for this disruption risk, because it’s not a ’27 or ’28 issue.”

Investor concerns around AI boiled over this month as the market shifted from viewing the technology as a rising tide story for technology companies to more of a winner-take-all dynamic where Anthropic, OpenAI and others threaten incumbents. Software firms were hit first and hardest, but a rolling series of sell-offs hit sectors as disparate as finance, real estate and trucking.

In his note, Mish and other UBS analysts lay out a baseline scenario in which borrowers of leveraged loans and private credit see a combined $75 billion to $120 billion in fresh defaults by the end of this year.

CNBC calculated those figures by using Mish’s estimates for increases of up to 2.5% and up to 4% in defaults for leveraged loans and private credit, respectively, by late 2026. Those are markets which he estimates to be $1.5 trillion and $2 trillion in size.

‘Credit crunch’?

But Mish also highlighted the possibility of a more sudden, painful AI transition in which defaults jump by twice the estimates for his base assumption, cutting off funding for many companies, he said. The scenario is what’s known in Wall Street jargon as a “tail risk.”

“The knock-on effect will be that you will have a credit crunch in loan markets,” he said. “You will have a broad repricing of leveraged credit, and you will have a shock to the system coming from credit.”

While the risks are rising, they will be governed by the timing of AI adoption by large corporations, the pace of AI model improvements and other uncertain factors, according to the UBS analyst.

“We’re not yet calling for that tail-risk scenario, but we are moving in that direction,” he said.

Leveraged loans and private credit are generally considered among the riskier corners of corporate credit, since they often finance below-investment-grade companies, many of them backed by private equity and carrying higher levels of debt.

When it comes to the AI trade, companies can be placed into three broad categories, according to Mish: The first are creators of the foundational large language models such as Anthropic and OpenAI, which are startups but could soon be large, publicly traded companies.

The second are investment-grade software firms like Salesforce and Adobe that have robust balance sheets and can implement AI to fend off challengers.

The last category is the cohort of private equity-owned software and data services companies with relatively high levels of debt.

“The winners of this entire transformation — if it really becomes, as we’re increasingly believing, a rapid and very disruptive or severe [change] — the winners are least likely to come from that third bucket,” Mish said.

CNBC

Business

EU Rejects Higher US Tariffs After Court Ruling, Says ‘Deal Is a Deal’

EU says it will accept no increase in US tariffs after Supreme Court ruling: ‘a deal is a deal.’

The European Commission demanded on Sunday, February 22, 2026, that the United States stick to the terms of an EU-U.S. trade deal reached last year after the U.S. Supreme Court struck down Donald Trump’s global tariffs and he responded with new levies across the board.

After the court struck down Trump’s global tariffs on Friday, the U.S. president announced temporary, across-the-board tariffs of 10%, which he then hiked to 15% a day later.

The Commission, which negotiates trade policy on behalf of the 27 EU member states, said Washington must provide “full clarity” on the steps it intends to take following the court ruling.

“The current situation is not conducive to delivering ‘fair, balanced, and mutually beneficial’ transatlantic trade and investment, as agreed to by both sides” in the joint statement setting out the terms of last year’s trade agreement, the Commission said. “A deal is a deal.”

The comments were far more strongly worded than the Commission’s initial response on Friday, which had said only that it was studying the outcome of the Supreme Court decision and keeping in contact with the U.S. administration.

Last year’s trade deal set a 15% U.S. tariff rate for most EU goods, apart from those covered by other sectoral tariffs such as on steel.

It also allowed zero tariffs on some products such as aircraft and spare parts.

The EU agreed to remove import duties on many U.S. goods and withdrew a threat to retaliate with higher levies.

“In particular, EU products must continue to benefit from the most competitive treatment, with no increases in tariffs beyond the clear and all-inclusive ceiling previously agreed,” the EU executive said, adding that unpredictable tariffs were disruptive and undermined confidence across global markets.

It said that EU Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic had discussed the issue with U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick on Saturday,February 21,2026.

The international News

Business

France’s Thales to hire 9,000 in 2026, 60 vacancies in the UAE

French defence and aerospace giant Thales plans to recruit more than 9,000 new employees worldwide in 2026 — including 60 roles in the UAE and 30 in Saudi Arabia.

The global hiring drive follows the recruitment of 8,800 employees in 2025, exceeding the company’s original target of 8,000 new hires.

In total, 150 jobs are planned across the Middle East and Africa next year. The company is also recruiting 450 workers in India.

The global hiring drive follows the recruitment of 8,800 employees in 2025, exceeding the company’s original target of 8,000 new hires.

In total, 150 jobs are planned across the Middle East and Africa next year. The company is also recruiting 450 workers in India.

Patrice Caine, CEO of Thales, said, “Together, we are shaping the future by inspiring an increasing number of young people, especially young women, to pursue careers in science and technology.”

Thales employs more than 83,000 people in 68 countries and generated €20.6 billion in sales in 2024. The company said strengthening diversity remains a priority.

In 2025, women accounted for 32 per cent of all recruitments. It added that 69 per cent of its management committees include at least four women, with a target of 75 per cent in 2026.

Thales also reported an employment rate of over 7 per cent for people with disabilities in France in 2025.

Strong demand for jobs

Thales said it received 1.4 million applications worldwide in 2025, up from one million CVs in 2024. The recruitment advisory Universum’s ranking also placed Thales first among the most attractive employers for engineering school students in France.

Around 40 per cent of new hires in 2026 will go into engineering roles, including software, systems engineering, cybersecurity, artificial intelligence and data. A further 25 per cent will be recruited into industrial positions such as technicians, operators and engineers.

In France alone, the company plans to hire 3,300 people across several regions.

Thales has maintained a presence in the UAE for over 50 years, employing more than 500 people across three main offices.

Thales operates entities like Thales Emarat Technologies (TET), which focuses on defence and aerospace capabilities.

Thales’ key products include avionics, flight decks, and in-flight entertainment systems for aviation, along with radars, missiles (Starstreak, Crotale), armoured vehicles (Bushmaster, Hawkei), and unmanned drones (Watchkeeper) for defence.

Business

Saudi Halal Ecosystem Boosts Export Competitiveness

-Makkah Halal Forum 2026 marked a pivotal milestone in the development of Saudi Arabia’s halal industry, ushering in a new phase of structured institutional action.
This shift moves the sector beyond theoretical discourse toward a fully integrated implementation framework. It cements the Kingdom’s global leadership in halal and enhances the credibility of Saudi products in international markets.
The forum witnessed the launch of a package of strategic enablers reflecting the maturity of the Saudi experience in the sector. Chief among them was the introduction of the Halal Academy as a specialized knowledge and training arm dedicated to building professional expertise and raising standards across the entire value chain.
The event also saw the unveiling of the Golden Halal logo, a high-level accreditation mark designed to provide global markets with a unified benchmark of trust, underscoring the Kingdom’s commitment to the highest standards of quality and compliance.
These initiatives signal a strategic shift that goes beyond the traditional concept of religious oversight. Instead, they frame halal as a comprehensive industrial and economic system that integrates Sharia compliance with high quality standards, advanced governance, and digital traceability. The approach is expected to enhance the competitiveness of Saudi exports and facilitate their entry into global markets.
National success stories highlight the tangible impact of this transformation. Chief executive officer and founder of Roya Factory for Food Products Rasha Al Sanea noted that Saudi accreditation has evolved into a comprehensive quality certification that provides companies with a clear competitive edge abroad.
She noted that obtaining certification involves a rigorous process, including assessments of facility safety, manufacturing quality, and compliance with global standards ahead of final audits. These measures strengthen product reliability and boost readiness for international expansion.
Al Sanea added that the presence of international delegations and trade missions in Makkah on the sidelines of the forum helped accelerate expansion opportunities and open direct export channels to several markets.
She emphasized that pairing the Saudi Made logo with accredited halal marks, foremost among them the Golden Halal logo, enhances global consumer confidence and gives Saudi products a strong presence across diverse cultures and markets.
— SPA