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US halts Iran sea trade despite hopes for talks

The United States said on Wednesday its military had completely halted trade going in and out of Iran by sea, while President Donald Trump said talks with Tehran on ending the war could resume this week, sending oil prices down for a second day.

Trump said negotiations between U.S. and Iranian officials could resume in Pakistan in the next two days and Vice President JD Vance, who led weekend talks that ended without a breakthrough, said he felt positive about where things stood.

“I think you’re going to be watching an amazing two days ahead,” Trump told ABC News reporter Jonathan Karl, adding he did not think it would be necessary to extend a two-week ceasefire that ends on April 21. “It could end either way, but I think a deal is preferable because then they can rebuild,” Trump said, according to a post by Karl on X. “They really do have a different regime now. No matter what, we took out the radicals.”

Officials from Pakistan, Iran and the Gulf also said negotiating teams from the U.S. and Iran could return to Pakistan later this week, although one senior Iranian source said no date had been set.

Despite the optimistic note, more vessels were being turned back under the U.S. blockade on Iranian ports, including a U.S.-sanctioned and Chinese-owned tanker Rich Starry that was making its way back to the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday after exiting the Arabian Gulf.

Admiral Brad Cooper, the head of the U.S. Central Command, said American forces had completely halted economic trade going in and out of Iran by sea, which he said fuels 90% of Iran’s economy.

“In less than 36 hours since the blockade was implemented, U.S. forces have completely halted economic trade going into and out of Iran by sea,” Cooper said in a post on X.

U.S. and Iran begin a battle of economic endurance in the Strait of Hormuz

Earlier the U.S. military said it had intercepted eight Iran-linked oil tankers since the start of the blockade on Monday, according to the Wall Street Journal.

Trump, speaking to the New York Post on Tuesday, said his negotiators are likely to be back, thanks largely to the “great job” Pakistan’s army chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir, was doing to moderate the talks.

Later on Tuesday, at an event in Georgia, U.S. Vice President JD Vance said Trump wanted to make a “grand bargain” with Iran but there was a lot of mistrust between the two countries.

“You are not going to solve that problem overnight,” he said. The signs of diplomatic engagement to end the conflict that began on Feb. 28 helped calm oil markets, pressing benchmark prices below US$100 for a second day on Wednesday. Asian stocks rose while the safe-haven dollar stabilized after falling for a seventh straight session overnight.

China’s Xi warns global order ‘crumbling’ amid Iran war chaos

However, the market stands to lose access to further supply as the U.S. does not plan to renew a 30-day waiver of sanctions on Iranian oil at sea that expires this week, according to two U.S. officials, and quietly let a similar waiver on Russian oil run out on the weekend.

The war has prompted Iran to effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial global waterway for crude and gas transport, and cut shipments from the Gulf to global buyers, particularly in Asia and Europe, leaving importers scrambling to secure alternative supplies. About 5,000 people have died in the hostilities, including about 3,000 in Iran and 2,000 in Lebanon.

Sticking points

Iran’s nuclear ambitions were a key sticking point at the weekend talks. The U.S. had proposed a 20-year suspension of all nuclear activity by Iran, while Tehran had suggested a halt of three to five years, according to people familiar with the proposals.

Speaking in Seoul, the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Rafael Grossi, said the length of any moratorium on Iranian uranium enrichment was a political decision and it was possible Tehran might accept a compromise as a confidence-building act.

The U.S. has also pressed for any enriched nuclear material to be removed from Iran, while Tehran has demanded that international sanctions against it be removed.

Israel and Lebanon meet in Washington for first direct diplomatic talks in decades

One source involved in the negotiations in Pakistan said back-channel talks since the weekend had produced progress in closing that gap, bringing the two sides closer to a deal that could be put forward at a new round of talks.

However, in a major complication for peace prospects, Israel has continued to attack Lebanon as it targets Hezbollah, an Iran-backed militant group. Israel and the U.S. say that campaign is not covered by the ceasefire, while Iran insists it is. On Tuesday, the U.K., Canada, Japan and seven other countries condemned the killings of UN peacekeepers in Lebanon and called for “an urgent end to hostilities.”

Reuters

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David Attenborough, ‘the voice for nature,’ turns 100

 Britain’s David Attenborough, who has for decades been the world’s most authoritative voice on the natural world and whose documentaries have been watched by hundreds ​of millions, will on Friday celebrate his 100th birthday.

After more than 70 years of film-making, Attenborough’s instantly recognisable voice is synonymous with the story of ‌nature. He is still at the vanguard of efforts to protect the environment and has produced some of his most impactful work in recent years.

Counting Britain’s royal family, Barack Obama and pop star Billie Eilish among his admirers, Attenborough’s charisma, humour and warmth, alongside the depth of his knowledge and his flair for storytelling, have made him a broadcasting superstar.

“Your ability to communicate the beauty and vulnerability of our natural environment ​remains unequalled,” was how the late Queen Elizabeth summed up his achievements in 2019.

‘LONESOME GEORGE’ AND THE FRAGILE ENVIRONMENT

Attenborough’s films have communicated the wonder and also the tragedies ​of the natural world to viewers across the globe.

Standout scenes include his encounter with two playful young mountain gorillas who clambered onto him ⁠during his landmark 1979 series “Life on Earth”.

He also made his audience marvel at the teamwork of a pod of orcas hunting a seal by creating waves to break up ice, ​and his telling in 2012 of the story of “Lonesome George”, the last surviving Pinta Island tortoise, moved people to tears.

“He’s about 80 years old, and getting a bit creaky in his ​joints – as indeed am I,” Attenborough, then 86, said.

George’s death, two weeks after he was filmed, marked the extinction of his species.

“He’s focused the attention of the world on the fragility of our environment,” Attenborough said at the time.

While Attenborough has topped numerous national popularity polls, being named the country’s most admired man and the greatest living British cultural icon, friends say he rolls his eyes when he is labelled a “national ​treasure”.

“What he feels is that he’s a public servant. He feels that he had the unique opportunity to be the voice for nature, to tell everybody about the wonders of ​nature,” Mike Gunton, a television producer who has worked with Attenborough many times, told Reuters.

As climate change has accelerated and the threat to much of the world has become more urgent, Attenborough devoted much of ‌his 90s ⁠to raising public awareness.

His 2017 blockbuster “Blue Planet 2”, which highlighted the scourge of plastic in the ocean, achieved some of the highest viewing figures on British television before being sold to broadcasters around the world.

Albatrosses unwittingly feeding their chicks plastic fished from the ocean jolted public opinion and led the British government and major retailers to announce measures to reduce the use of plastics.

“I think every single person who’s seen anything that Sir David has done has been inspired to care about nature,” said Doug Gurr, director of the Natural History Museum in London.

SPECIAL ​BBC BROADCASTS AND EVENTS

In Britain, Attenborough’s centenary ​is being marked with a week of ⁠special broadcasts on the BBC, a live concert at the Royal Albert Hall, events at museums, nature walks and tree planting.

The broadcasts include his new series “Secret Garden”. At 99, he remains heavily involved in programme-making, say BBC colleagues, driven by his enduring curiosity and joy of ​storytelling.

“That’s typical David. He makes everything really enjoyable,” said Mike Salisbury, who has worked as a producer on several Attenborough documentaries.

Born on ​May 8, 1926, Attenborough spent ⁠his childhood collecting fossils, insects and dried seahorses.

His BBC career took off in 1954 when he presented “Zoo Quest”, which involved him travelling to far-flung parts of the world and bringing animals back to London Zoo.

By the 1970s he had risen to be programme controller at the broadcaster but decided he wanted to return to making nature documentaries.

Screened in 1979 when he was 52, “Life on Earth” ⁠made him ​a household name. He wrote the entire 13-hour script and travelled the world for three years to tell the ​story of evolution from simple organisms to humans.

Dozens of documentaries followed, including “Blue Planet,” “Frozen Planet” and “Dynasties”. As the decades passed, his sense of the need to act only increased.

“How could I look my grandchildren in the eye and say ​I knew what was happening to the world and did nothing?” Attenborough said.

Reuters

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politics

UAE, Saudi report drone incidents as Iran war drags on

A drone strike caused a fire at a nuclear power plant in the ​United Arab Emirates, officials there said on Sunday, while Saudi Arabia reported intercepting three drones, as U.S. President Donald Trump warned that Iran must act “fast” after efforts to ‌end the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran appeared to have stalled.

Emirati officials said they were investigating the source of the strike and that the UAE had the full right to respond to such “terrorist attacks.” A diplomatic adviser to the UAE president said it represented a dangerous escalation, whether carried out by “the principal perpetrator” or one of its proxies.

The UAE defense ministry said two other drones had been “successfully” dealt with, and that the drones had been launched from the “western ​border.” It did not elaborate.

Saudi Arabia said the three drones it intercepted entered from Iraqi airspace and warned that it would take the necessary operational measures to respond to ​any attempt to violate its sovereignty and security.

While hostilities during the Iran conflict have largely been scaled down since a ceasefire came into effect ⁠in April, drones have been launched from Iraq towards Gulf countries, including Saudi Arabia and Kuwait.

The drone that got through the UAE’s defenses hit an electrical generator outside the inner perimeter of the Barakah ​Nuclear Power Plant, the Abu Dhabi Media Office said. Radiological safety levels were unaffected and there were no injuries, it said. UAE’s Federal Authority for Nuclear Regulation later confirmed that the plant remained safe, ​with no radioactive material released from the strike.

The International Atomic Energy Agency said emergency diesel generators were providing power to the plant’s “unit 3,” and called for “maximum military restraint” near any nuclear power plant, adding that it was following the situation closely.

During the war that began with U.S. and Israeli strikes against Iran on February 28, Iran has repeatedly targeted the UAE and other Gulf states that host U.S. military bases, hitting sites that include civilian ​and energy infrastructure.

Iran stepped up such attacks on the UAE earlier this month after Trump announced a naval mission to try to open the Strait of Hormuz, which Trump suspended after 48 hours.

DIPLOMATIC ​DEADLOCK

More than five weeks after a tenuous ceasefire in the conflict took effect, U.S. and Iranian demands remain far apart despite diplomatic efforts to end the war and reopen the strait, the world’s most important ‌shipping route for ⁠oil and gas.

Washington has called for Tehran to dismantle its nuclear program and lift its hold on the strait. Iran has demanded compensation for war damage, an end to a U.S. blockade of Iranian ports and a halt to fighting on all fronts, including in Lebanon, where Israel is battling Iran-backed Hezbollah.

Trump, whose harsh rhetoric has failed to break the stalemate, said in a post on Truth Social: “For Iran, the Clock is Ticking, and they better get moving, FAST, or there won’t be anything left of them. TIME IS OF THE ESSENCE!”

Trump is expected to meet top national security advisers ​on Tuesday to discuss options for military action ​regarding Iran, Axios reported.

Trump held talks with Chinese President ⁠Xi Jinping this week without securing an indication from China that it would help resolve the conflict and has previously threatened to resume attacks if Iran does not agree to a deal.

A senior spokesperson for the Iranian armed forces, Abolfazl Shekarchi, said on Sunday that if Trump’s threats were ​carried out, the U.S. would “face new, aggressive, and surprise scenarios, and sink into a self-made quagmire”.

Iranian foreign ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baqaei said the ​U.S. and Israel had ⁠tried to shift the blame for destabilizing energy markets following their “unprovoked military aggression against Iran”.

RIVAL BLOCKADES

The disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has caused the biggest oil supply crisis in history, pushing up prices. The U.S. has imposed its own blockade of Iranian ports, and said that as of Sunday it had redirected 81 commercial vessels and disabled four vessels to ensure compliance.

Ebrahim Azizi, who heads the Iranian ⁠parliament’s national security ​committee, said on Saturday that Tehran had prepared a mechanism to manage traffic through the strait along a designated ​route that would be unveiled soon.

Thousands of Iranians were killed in the U.S. and Israeli airstrikes. Thousands more have been killed in Lebanon in fighting between Israel and the Iran-backed group Hezbollah.

Israel and Lebanon agreed on Friday to a 45-day extension ​of a ceasefire there, though the truce has failed to end clashes.

Reuters

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What if disruption in Strait of Hormuz never ends?

For months, governments, businesses and financial markets treated the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz as a temporary crisis that would eventually ease through diplomacy or military de-escalation.

Moody’s Ratings is now warning the world may need to think differently.

In a new report, the ratings agency said the disruption to one of the world’s most important energy shipping routes is increasingly looking less like a short-term shock and more like a structural risk that could reshape global trade, energy markets and economic planning well beyond 2026.

The warning marks a shift in tone from earlier assessments that viewed the crisis mainly as a temporary supply disruption.

“We now have a single, central scenario which assumes a prolonged and significant disruption to the Strait of Hormuz through autumn,” Moody’s said.

Strait still vital to the world

The Strait of Hormuz handles around one-fifth of global crude oil and liquefied natural gas flows, making it one of the world’s most critical trade chokepoints.

But shipping through the route has fallen by more than 90 per cent from pre-conflict levels as insurers raise premiums, shipping companies avoid the area and concerns over sea mines continue to disrupt navigation.

The conflict itself may dominate headlines, but Moody’s said the larger issue is what happens if the disruption simply drags on for months.

That could mean permanently higher shipping costs, more expensive energy, slower trade flows and new supply chain strategies as companies and governments adjust to prolonged instability in the Gulf.

“Global shipping routes are being structurally rewired,” Moody’s said. The agency said countries are increasingly turning to non-Gulf suppliers, alternative pipeline routes and regional trade systems to reduce reliance on the Strait.

Higher oil prices now a norm?

Moody’s now expects Brent crude prices to remain between $90 and $110 a barrel for much of this year, significantly above earlier expectations.

For consumers, that could mean prolonged pressure on fuel prices, airfares, transport costs and inflation. “Persistently higher energy prices will lead to increases in inflation and production costs, limiting household purchasing power,” Moody’s said.

The agency warned that even if a ceasefire or political agreement is reached, a return to normal conditions would still take time because shipping backlogs, tanker repositioning and insurance systems would need months to stabilise.

The report also suggested that some changes triggered by the crisis may not reverse at all. “Some structural shifts in supply chain design, risk premiums and defense spending will probably be permanent,” Moody’s said.

Airlines, manufacturing risks

Industries that rely heavily on fuel and transport are among the sectors most exposed if elevated oil prices continue.

Moody’s identified airlines, chemicals and building materials companies as facing the “most acute pressure” because of high operating costs and limited ability to pass rising expenses onto customers.

Consumer sectors including retail, hospitality and manufacturing could also come under strain if households reduce spending in response to higher living costs.

“Airlines, building products and chemicals face the most acute pressure,” Moody’s said. At the same time, some sectors could benefit from the changing environment.

Energy producers outside the Gulf region and aerospace and defence companies are expected to gain from higher oil prices and increased geopolitical tensions.

Asia faces the biggest challenge

The report said Asian economies remain among the most vulnerable because of their dependence on Middle Eastern energy imports.

India was identified as one of the most exposed major economies because around 46 per cent of its crude oil imports come from the Middle East.

Japan and South Korea were also described as highly vulnerable despite holding large emergency reserves, while China could face pressure on industrial profitability even with state-controlled pricing and large stockpiles.

“At sustained Brent prices of $90–$110/bbl, we estimate real GDP growth reductions of 0.2–0.8 percentage point for several major economies,” Moody’s said.

Crisis world may have to adapt to

Perhaps the biggest message from the Moody’s report is that the global economy may no longer be waiting for the Strait of Hormuz crisis to end quickly.

Instead, governments, businesses and investors are increasingly preparing for the possibility that disruption, higher costs and geopolitical risk in one of the world’s most important trade routes could become part of the global economic landscape for the foreseeable future.

GN

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