The Middle East conflict has disrupted trade through the Strait of Hormuz and its impact could ripple far beyond the energy markets, risking a spike in global food prices.

The strait is not only a key artery for oil and gas shipments but also for fertilizers critical to global agriculture. Analysts told CNBC disruptions could feed through to higher farming costs, reduced crop yields and ultimately more expensive food.

“Higher energy and input costs risk reigniting global food inflation just as retail food prices had returned to more historical levels in many countries,” according to the International Food Policy Research Institute, or IFPRI.

Raj Patel, a research professor at the University of Texas, also warned that fertilizer disruptions linked to the conflict could amplify global food pressures through several channels simultaneously.

“The short answer is: significant, and faster than people think,” Patel said. “The Strait of Hormuz is a fertilizer chokepoint. Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Oman, and Iran together supply a substantial share of the world’s traded urea and phosphates, and virtually all of it transits Hormuz.”

Countries dependent on food imports directly as well as those reliant on fertilizers could face rising costs within weeks, particularly during key planting periods, said industry watchers.

Gulf countries face: immediate risk

The first region likely to feel the impact includes countries closest to the conflict.

“Regionally, consumers in the GCC are most exposed to short-term food price spikes due to their heavy reliance on maritime imports transiting the Strait of Hormuz,” said Bin Hui Ong, commodities analyst at BMI.

Arabian Gulf economies such as Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia rely heavily on food imports shipped through the Strait of Hormuz. If shipping remains constrained, supplies would need to be rerouted through alternative corridors or transported overland at far higher cost, analysts said.

“When it comes to short term shortages, all countries around the Persian gulf west of Hormuz will struggle to get food imports in,” Mera said. “These countries will need to find alternative routes.”

He noted that wealthier states such as Qatar, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait have the financial resources to import food by air or overland routes if necessary, but poorer neighbors may struggle more.

“Iraq may suffer. Iran itself will also face scarcity,” Mera added.

Sub-Saharan Africa: most vulnerable

Beyond the Gulf region, the greatest risks may lie in parts of Sub-Saharan Africa, where farmers depend heavily on imported fertilizer and households spend a large share of income on food.

“Sub-Saharan Africa is the most vulnerable region,” said Patel. Data from the University of Texas at Austin shows that over 90% of the fertilizer consumed in sub-Saharan Africa is imported, mostly from outside the continent.
Nitrogen-intensive crops such as maize, a key staple across the region, are especially sensitive to fertilizer shortages, raising the risk of lower harvests and rising food prices, other experts highlighted.

“The poorest and most densely populated regions are likely to suffer the most,” said Rabobank’s Mera, including parts of sub-Saharan Africa.

Asian concerns

South and Southeast Asia could also face mounting cost pressures.

Major agricultural economies such as India, Bangladesh, Thailand and Indonesia rely heavily on imported fertilizers from the Gulf. A sustained disruption could drive up costs for farmers during key planting seasons.

“A farmer in Thailand who is 90% import-dependent, buying urea that’s made from gas, shipped through Hormuz, and priced in dollars that are strengthening because of geopolitical risk, faces a cost shock on every dimension simultaneously,” Patel said.

Staples in the region, which include rice and maize are among the most fertilizer-intensive crops.

Mera singled out Indonesia and Bangladesh among those likely to be worst affected in the region.

Longer-term view

If farmers respond to higher fertilizer prices by reducing its use, crop yields could decline and push food prices higher.

Brazil, one of the world’s largest agricultural exporters, could face rising costs if fertilizer markets tighten, said analysts. Brazil imports around 85% of its fertilizer, making its soybean and maize production highly dependent on global supply chains.

A prolonged disruption during Brazil’s key fertilizer import season could ripple through global crop markets, eventually impacting food prices.

Even if crop output remains relatively stable in the near term, rising energy costs alone could drive food inflation higher globally, experts said.

Energy plays a major role throughout the food supply chain, from powering farm machinery and producing fertilizers to transporting crops and processing them into food products.

“The bigger impact on consumer prices will not be the impact on agricultural commodities but the fact that energy is a big portion of the total retail food bill,” said Joseph Glauber, senior research fellow at the International Food Policy Research Institute.

Chris Barrett, an agricultural economist at Cornell University, said the scale of any price shock will depend heavily on how long shipping disruptions persist.

CNBC

The war in Iran could raise global food prices as the conflict disrupts fertilizer shipments through one of the world’s most critical trade routes.

While energy markets have focused on oil supply risks, analysts say threats to fertilizer supply chains through the Strait of Hormuz may also bring long-term economic issues through food inflation.

“Beyond energy, another risk receiving less attention is the potential knock-on effect on food prices, as fertilizer shortages push agricultural costs higher,” said Wolfe Research chief economist Stephanie Roth in a note written on Tuesday.

Roth estimates the disruption could raise “food-at-home” inflation by roughly 2 percentage points, adding about 0.15 percentage points to headline inflation in the U.S., on top of roughly 0.40 percentage point increase from energy.

Those potential price hikes come as U.S. consumers face a sustained stretch of higher prices for food, housing and energy. Inflation for food at home climbed 2.4% year over year in February, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said Wednesday.

More than one-third of globally traded fertilizer passes through the Strait of Hormuz, making it a critical artery for agricultural supply chains. Commercial traffic through the route has largely been halted since the war started late last month, disrupting shipments just as farmers across the Northern Hemisphere prepare fields for spring planting.

The timing is critical because fertilizers are applied early in the crop cycle and help determine yields later in the year.

“If fertilizer supply tightens during this window, farmers may reduce application rates,” Roth said in the note. That could reduce yields for crops like corn, soybeans, wheat and rice, and increase agricultural costs.

Economists in the fertilizer industry are equally concerned and say prices are already rising.

Between the weeks ending Feb. 27 and March 6 — which encompass the start of the war — the price per short ton of urea fertilizer imports in the U.S. jumped by 30%, according to data collected by industry advocacy group The Fertilizer Institute.

Urea — a nitrogen-based fertilizer widely used to boost crop yields — is one of the most heavily traded fertilizers moving through the region.

Higher fertilizer prices for farmers and retailers could ultimately raise food costs for consumers if the trade disruption lasts, said Veronica Nigh, chief economist at The Fertilizer Institute.

“This is a global impact on fertilizer costs,” said Nigh. “I would imagine that there would be much more passing on of these costs to consumers in this scenario, which is not something we have seen before.”

The U.S. relies on global fertilizer markets, importing roughly 20% of its total use, though nitrogen fertilizers like urea come from a more wide-ranging group of suppliers, including Canada, Trinidad and Tobago, Russia and elsewhere.

The ripple effect could stretch around the world and beyond commodities. Asia and Africa are especially dependent on fertilizer exports from the Gulf region. Countries such as India rely heavily on Gulf supplies, while several African economies depend on imported materials used to produce fertilizers.

While disruptions to fertilizer shipments could lower crop yields for farmers and raise costs for households, fertilizer producers could stand to benefit.

CF Industries hit an all-time high Monday and shares are up nearly 10% over the past week, the company’s biggest multiday gain since 2022.

CNBC

Food engineers warn against six common food groups they say pose serious health risks if mishandled, urging consumers to pay close attention to cold chains, packaging, and traceability.

Food engineers have issued a series of warnings by listing products they say they would never allow into their kitchens.

Highlighting foods that consumers often unknowingly add to their shopping baskets, experts stressed that these items can pose serious health risks, emphasizing each category with the phrase: “I would never bring this into my home.”

The nutrients in the foods we consume daily play a vital role in enabling our body’s cells to perform essential functions. Nutrients are fundamental to growth, development, maintenance of bodily functions, and emotional stability, making them one of the main pillars of human health.

Poor nutrition can damage metabolic processes and lead to deteriorating health. Just as frequently consuming foods high in sugar or fat can be harmful, inadequate or insufficient nutrition can also cause serious damage to the body.

However, even products we choose believing they are fresh and healthy may, in fact, cause hidden harm. Food engineers have therefore outlined the products they would never buy from either markets or grocery stores.

They stressed that the most critical factors when purchasing food are maintaining the cold chain, traceability, and packaging safety. Here are six food groups that food engineers say they would never keep in their kitchens:

Milk and Dairy Products
Due to their high protein and water content, milk and dairy products are ideal environments for microbial growth.

If the cold chain (keeping milk at +4°C from milking to consumption) is broken, these products can become serious health threats.

Temperature changes destroy nutritional value and allow bacteria to produce heat-resistant toxins that cannot be eliminated even by boiling, potentially causing long-term health problems.

Illegal chemicals added to mask spoilage further expose consumers to microbiological and chemical risks.

Uncovered cottage cheese, butter, and kashar cheese are exposed to dust, insects, and airborne microbes, while improper temperatures encourage the growth of deadly bacteria and toxin-producing molds.

Cottage cheese can become toxic very quickly, butter can undergo chemical spoilage due to oxidation, and shared cutting tools increase cross-contamination risks in cheeses like kashar.

Unrefrigerated Meat, Poultry, and Deli Products
When sold without refrigeration, these products remain in the “danger zone” at room temperature, allowing pathogens such as Salmonella, E. coli, and Campylobacter to multiply rapidly.

In meat and poultry, this can lead to the spread of heat-resistant toxins that cause severe food poisoning and organ damage.

In deli products, broken cold chains also promote Listeria growth and chemical degradation of fats.

Unlabeled or Cracked Eggs
Eggs without barcodes or with visible dirt or cracks pose a high risk of Salmonella.

Dirt on the shell harbors bacteria, and even tiny cracks allow microbes to enter and multiply.

Without traceability, there is also a higher risk of consuming stale eggs or being exposed to antibiotic and drug residues.

Out-of-Season Fruits and Vegetables
Produce sold out of season is often exposed to high levels of synthetic hormones and pesticides to compensate for the lack of natural growing conditions.

These chemicals can accumulate in the body, causing hormonal disorders and long-term health issues.

Such products also have lower vitamin and antioxidant content and may contain synthetic waxes and preservatives that burden the digestive system.

Oils, Sauces, and Pastes in Plastic Packaging
High fat and acidic content can cause harmful chemicals such as BPA and phthalates to migrate from plastic into food, disrupting the hormonal system and contributing to issues ranging from infertility to obesity.

Plastic also accelerates oxidation and allows microplastics to leach into acidic foods like tomato paste and sauces, increasing cancer and toxicity risks—especially when exposed to heat and light.

Finally, food engineers emphasized that these risks are even more critical in households with babies, children, elderly individuals, pregnant women, or people with weakened immune systems, urging consumers to be far more cautious about what they eat.

A News