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politics

Will Trump revive Iran operation after China setback?

 President Donald Trump returned from China on Friday facing mounting pressure over Iran after talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping failed to produce any visible breakthrough on reopening the Strait of Hormuz or ending the deadlock over Tehran’s nuclear programme.

Instead, Washington is now openly signalling that military options are back on the table.

According to The New York Times, top US officials have drafted plans for renewed strikes against Iran if Trump decides diplomacy has failed. The report said US and Israeli forces are carrying out their largest preparations since the April 7 ceasefire, with possible renewed attacks being discussed as early as next week.

The renewed tensions come after Trump dismissed Iran’s latest proposal while flying back from Beijing.

“I looked at it, and if I don’t like the first sentence I just throw it away,” Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One., Reuters reported

The US president said he discussed Iran with Xi, whose country relies heavily on oil and gas shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. But Trump acknowledged he did not directly ask the Chinese leader to pressure Tehran.

China also stopped short of publicly committing to any concrete intervention, despite both Washington and Beijing wanting the strategic waterway reopened.

The Chinese foreign ministry merely said the conflict “should never have happened” and “has no reason to continue”.

Hormuz remains flashpoint

Iran effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz to most commercial shipping after the US-Israeli strikes that began on February 28. Although a ceasefire was announced on April 7, Tehran has continued linking any full reopening of the waterway to an end to the US naval blockade on Iranian ports.

Before the war, nearly a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas passed through the narrow strait.

Trump has repeatedly warned Iran that the US could resume military action if shipping does not return to normal.

“We don’t want them to have a nuclear weapon, we want the straits open,” Trump said during his Beijing visit.

Netanyahu has also warned the war is “not over,” insisting Iran’s nuclear material and enrichment sites must still be eliminated before the conflict can truly end.

US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth confirmed this week that Washington has prepared both escalation and de-escalation plans.

“We have a plan to escalate if necessary,” Hegseth told lawmakers.

According to The New York Times, possible options include expanded bombing campaigns against Iranian military infrastructure and even special operations raids targeting deeply buried nuclear material at Isfahan.

US officials told the paper that several hundred Special Operations troops were deployed earlier this year specifically to preserve that option.

Military buildup remains in place

Despite the ceasefire, the US has kept a massive military presence in the region.

Gen. Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said more than 50,000 troops, two aircraft carriers, Navy destroyers and dozens of combat aircraft remain ready for “major combat operations” if ordered.

The report said Iran has meanwhile restored access to most of its missile infrastructure, including 30 of the 33 missile sites along the Strait of Hormuz.

Iranian officials have also warned they are prepared for renewed hostilities.

“Our armed forces are ready to deliver a well-deserved response to any aggression,” Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said earlier this week.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said Tehran remains open to diplomacy but does not trust Washington after previous negotiations were interrupted by military strikes.

Political pressure grows on Trump

The prolonged conflict is increasingly becoming a political burden for Trump ahead of US congressional elections later this year.

While the president has repeatedly declared the military campaign a success, critics note that Iran has neither surrendered its nuclear programme nor fully reopened Hormuz.

Oil prices rose again on Friday amid fears that the conflict could intensify further if diplomacy collapses entirely, Reuters reported.

Gulf News

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world

Saudi Arabia launches Red Sea shipping route

The Saudi Ports Authority (Mawani) has launched a new cargo shipping service linking Jeddah Islamic Port with Salalah in Oman and the Port of Djibouti, as the Kingdom accelerates efforts to strengthen maritime connectivity and position itself as a regional logistics hub.

According to Saudi state television, the service has a carrying capacity of up to 1,730 twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) and is aimed at supporting the kingdom’s import and export activity while expanding links with regional and international ports.

The move forms part of Saudi Arabia’s broader logistics strategy under Vision 2030, which seeks to diversify economy and strengthen the kingdom’s role in global trade routes connecting Asia, Africa and Europe. Mawani recently launched the “Red Sea Express” cargo shipping service through King Fahd Industrial Port in Yanbu, linking Saudi Arabia with Ain Sokhna in Egypt and Aqaba in Jordan to improve regional trade and supply-chain efficiency.

The Kingdom has invested heavily in ports, shipping infrastructure and logistics corridors in recent years as GCC countries compete to become major transport and trade hubs.

GN

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politics

Pakistan hopes to host US-Iran peace talks ‘very soon

Pakistani prime minister Shehbaz Sharif has congratulated Donald Trump on his peace efforts and said Pakistan hopes to host another round of talks between the US and Iran “very soon”.

Sharif also said in a post on X that the US president held a “very useful and productive” phone call earlier in the day with the leaders of Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Turkey, Egypt, the UAE, Jordan and Pakistan, with Pakistani army chief Syed Asim Munir also on the line.

Sharif said:

The discussions provided a useful opportunity to exchange views on the current regional situation and how to move the ongoing peace efforts forward to bring lasting peace in the region. Pakistan will continue its peace efforts with utmost sincerity and we hope to host the next round of talks very soon.”

US vice-president JD Vance led a US delegation to Islamabad in the first round of peace talks with Iran six weeks ago, which ended without an agreement.

Iran executed one person for charges related to sending information to the US and Israel during the war, the Iranian judiciary’s Mizan news agency reported on Sunday, according to Reuters.

The individual was sending data about Iran’s defence industry to “the enemy”, the news agency alleged.

The draft agreement between the US and Iran also makes clear the Israel- Hezbollah war in Lebanon would end, Axios is reporting.

The newsite quotes an unnamed Israeli official as saying Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu expressed concern about that condition – and other aspects of the deal – during a call with Donald Trump on Saturday.

The report went on:

The US official said it would not be a ‘one-sided ceasefire’ and if Hezbollah tried to rearm or instigate attacks, Israel would be allowed to take action to prevent it. ‘If Hezbollah behaves, Israel will behave.’”

As just mentioned, the report says the agreement is only in unfinalised draft form and “could still fall apart”, according to a US official.

Peace draft involves reopening Hormuz strait during 60-day truce extension – report

The agreement the US and Iran are reportedly close to signing involves a 60-day ceasefire extension during which the strait of Hormuz would be reopened, according to Axios.

During that time Iran would be able to freely sell oil and negotiations would be held on curbing Iran’s nuclear program, the US news site is reporting, citing an American official, while also saying the details were in an agreement “draft” as it currently stood.

“Those details have not been confirmed by the Iranian side, though Tehran has also indicated a deal is getting close,” the report says.

Some of the draft details look to align with what is being reported from sources quoted by the Associated Press and the New York Times, as our full report details.

The deal would avoid an escalation of the war and decrease the pressure on the global oil supply, Axios says, adding:

However, it’s unclear whether it will lead to a lasting peace agreement that also addresses President Trump’s nuclear demands.”

The report says that during the 60-day Hormuz strait reopening, Iran would agree to clear mines it deployed in the waterway and allow ships to pass freely. In exchange, the US would lift its blockade on Iranian ports.

The report also says:

Both Trump and the mediators have indicated the deal could be announced on Sunday, though it has not been finalized and could still fall apart.”

Pakistan says ‘encouraging’ progress towards peace deal

The Pakistani army has said the negotiations with Iran resulted in “encouraging” progress towards a final understanding.

The deal being negotiated was “fairly comprehensive to terminate the war”, two Pakistani sources involved in the negotiations to end the war told Reuters.

Iran had said on Saturday that it was working towards a memorandum of understanding with the US laying out an approach to ending the war after its top officials met with Pakistani army chief Asim Munir.

Reuters quoted sources as saying the proposed framework would unfold in three stages: formally ending the war, resolving the crisis in the strait of Hormuz and launching a 30-day window for negotiations on a broader agreement, which can be extended.

One of the Pakistani sources also there was no guarantee the US would accept the memorandum. If it did, it would lead to further talks after the Eid holiday ended on Friday.

On Saturday Donald Trump told Axios he expected to decide on Sunday whether to resume attacks on Iran. “Either we reach a good deal or I’ll blow them to a thousand hells,” the news site quoted him as saying.

The Guardian

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politics

FAO warns of agri-food shock from Strait of Hormuz closure

The Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) of the United Nations warned that a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz risks triggering a structural agrifood shock, which could culminate in a severe global food price crisis within six to 12 months.

The situation could be further exacerbated by the onset of the El Niño weather phenomenon, which is expected to cause droughts and disrupt rainfall and temperature patterns across multiple regions.

Because farmers are forced to plant with fewer inputs, crop yields are expected to drop over the next six to 12 months, resulting in global food shortages and severe inflation, as per ReliefWeb.

The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway connecting the Arabian Gulf to the open ocean, acts as a global artery for both energy and agriculture. It facilitates the trade of up to  of internationally traded fertilizers and a significant portion of the sulfur required to manufacture them, as per FAO

The Chain Reaction

Energy epikes: A prolonged closure drives up oil and gas prices. Energy is required to physically move and operate the global food system.

Input shortages: Ships carrying vital materials (like nitrogen and phosphate) remain idle. Farmers facing shortages or prohibitively high costs for these nutrients cannot maintain optimal soil fertility.

Reduced yields: With fewer agricultural inputs available, crop yields per acre drop. This particularly threatens staples like wheat, rice, and maize. 

The 6-to-12-month lag

Because the world has some existing food reserves, a “buffer” period prevents immediate panic.

However, during this 6-to-12-month timeframe, planting seasons will inevitably pass without the necessary inputs, FAO warns.

When these lower-yield harvests materialize down the line, global food supplies tighten, culminating in skyrocketing retail food prices and widespread inflation. 

Humanitarian flows

To mitigate this outcome, the FAO recommended establishing alternative trade routes, managing export restrictions, safeguarding humanitarian aid flows, and building strategic reserves to absorb rising transport costs.

The organisation stressed that the window for proactive intervention is narrowing rapidly, noting that current decisions by farmers and governments regarding fertiliser application, imports, and financing will dictate whether a major crisis materialises.

According to the FAO, the shock is projected to ripple through consecutive phases, impacting energy, fertilisers, seeds, crop yields, and commodity prices before culminating in food inflation.

GN

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