politics

What if disruption in Strait of Hormuz never ends?

For months, governments, businesses and financial markets treated the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz as a temporary crisis that would eventually ease through diplomacy or military de-escalation.

Moody’s Ratings is now warning the world may need to think differently.

In a new report, the ratings agency said the disruption to one of the world’s most important energy shipping routes is increasingly looking less like a short-term shock and more like a structural risk that could reshape global trade, energy markets and economic planning well beyond 2026.

The warning marks a shift in tone from earlier assessments that viewed the crisis mainly as a temporary supply disruption.

“We now have a single, central scenario which assumes a prolonged and significant disruption to the Strait of Hormuz through autumn,” Moody’s said.

Strait still vital to the world

The Strait of Hormuz handles around one-fifth of global crude oil and liquefied natural gas flows, making it one of the world’s most critical trade chokepoints.

But shipping through the route has fallen by more than 90 per cent from pre-conflict levels as insurers raise premiums, shipping companies avoid the area and concerns over sea mines continue to disrupt navigation.

The conflict itself may dominate headlines, but Moody’s said the larger issue is what happens if the disruption simply drags on for months.

That could mean permanently higher shipping costs, more expensive energy, slower trade flows and new supply chain strategies as companies and governments adjust to prolonged instability in the Gulf.

“Global shipping routes are being structurally rewired,” Moody’s said. The agency said countries are increasingly turning to non-Gulf suppliers, alternative pipeline routes and regional trade systems to reduce reliance on the Strait.

Higher oil prices now a norm?

Moody’s now expects Brent crude prices to remain between $90 and $110 a barrel for much of this year, significantly above earlier expectations.

For consumers, that could mean prolonged pressure on fuel prices, airfares, transport costs and inflation. “Persistently higher energy prices will lead to increases in inflation and production costs, limiting household purchasing power,” Moody’s said.

The agency warned that even if a ceasefire or political agreement is reached, a return to normal conditions would still take time because shipping backlogs, tanker repositioning and insurance systems would need months to stabilise.

The report also suggested that some changes triggered by the crisis may not reverse at all. “Some structural shifts in supply chain design, risk premiums and defense spending will probably be permanent,” Moody’s said.

Airlines, manufacturing risks

Industries that rely heavily on fuel and transport are among the sectors most exposed if elevated oil prices continue.

Moody’s identified airlines, chemicals and building materials companies as facing the “most acute pressure” because of high operating costs and limited ability to pass rising expenses onto customers.

Consumer sectors including retail, hospitality and manufacturing could also come under strain if households reduce spending in response to higher living costs.

“Airlines, building products and chemicals face the most acute pressure,” Moody’s said. At the same time, some sectors could benefit from the changing environment.

Energy producers outside the Gulf region and aerospace and defence companies are expected to gain from higher oil prices and increased geopolitical tensions.

Asia faces the biggest challenge

The report said Asian economies remain among the most vulnerable because of their dependence on Middle Eastern energy imports.

India was identified as one of the most exposed major economies because around 46 per cent of its crude oil imports come from the Middle East.

Japan and South Korea were also described as highly vulnerable despite holding large emergency reserves, while China could face pressure on industrial profitability even with state-controlled pricing and large stockpiles.

“At sustained Brent prices of $90–$110/bbl, we estimate real GDP growth reductions of 0.2–0.8 percentage point for several major economies,” Moody’s said.

Crisis world may have to adapt to

Perhaps the biggest message from the Moody’s report is that the global economy may no longer be waiting for the Strait of Hormuz crisis to end quickly.

Instead, governments, businesses and investors are increasingly preparing for the possibility that disruption, higher costs and geopolitical risk in one of the world’s most important trade routes could become part of the global economic landscape for the foreseeable future.

world

Saudi Arabia launches Red Sea shipping route

The Saudi Ports Authority (Mawani) has launched a new cargo shipping service linking Jeddah Islamic Port with Salalah in Oman and the Port of Djibouti, as the Kingdom accelerates efforts to strengthen maritime connectivity and position itself as a regional logistics hub.

According to Saudi state television, the service has a carrying capacity of up to 1,730 twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) and is aimed at supporting the kingdom’s import and export activity while expanding links with regional and international ports.

The move forms part of Saudi Arabia’s broader logistics strategy under Vision 2030, which seeks to diversify economy and strengthen the kingdom’s role in global trade routes connecting Asia, Africa and Europe. Mawani recently launched the “Red Sea Express” cargo shipping service through King Fahd Industrial Port in Yanbu, linking Saudi Arabia with Ain Sokhna in Egypt and Aqaba in Jordan to improve regional trade and supply-chain efficiency.

The Kingdom has invested heavily in ports, shipping infrastructure and logistics corridors in recent years as GCC countries compete to become major transport and trade hubs.

politics

Pakistan hopes to host US-Iran peace talks ‘very soon

Pakistani prime minister Shehbaz Sharif has congratulated Donald Trump on his peace efforts and said Pakistan hopes to host another round of talks between the US and Iran “very soon”.

Sharif also said in a post on X that the US president held a “very useful and productive” phone call earlier in the day with the leaders of Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Turkey, Egypt, the UAE, Jordan and Pakistan, with Pakistani army chief Syed Asim Munir also on the line.

Sharif said:

The discussions provided a useful opportunity to exchange views on the current regional situation and how to move the ongoing peace efforts forward to bring lasting peace in the region. Pakistan will continue its peace efforts with utmost sincerity and we hope to host the next round of talks very soon.”

US vice-president JD Vance led a US delegation to Islamabad in the first round of peace talks with Iran six weeks ago, which ended without an agreement.

Iran executed one person for charges related to sending information to the US and Israel during the war, the Iranian judiciary’s Mizan news agency reported on Sunday, according to Reuters.

The individual was sending data about Iran’s defence industry to “the enemy”, the news agency alleged.

The draft agreement between the US and Iran also makes clear the Israel- Hezbollah war in Lebanon would end, Axios is reporting.

The newsite quotes an unnamed Israeli official as saying Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu expressed concern about that condition – and other aspects of the deal – during a call with Donald Trump on Saturday.

The report went on:

The US official said it would not be a ‘one-sided ceasefire’ and if Hezbollah tried to rearm or instigate attacks, Israel would be allowed to take action to prevent it. ‘If Hezbollah behaves, Israel will behave.’”

As just mentioned, the report says the agreement is only in unfinalised draft form and “could still fall apart”, according to a US official.

Peace draft involves reopening Hormuz strait during 60-day truce extension – report

The agreement the US and Iran are reportedly close to signing involves a 60-day ceasefire extension during which the strait of Hormuz would be reopened, according to Axios.

During that time Iran would be able to freely sell oil and negotiations would be held on curbing Iran’s nuclear program, the US news site is reporting, citing an American official, while also saying the details were in an agreement “draft” as it currently stood.

“Those details have not been confirmed by the Iranian side, though Tehran has also indicated a deal is getting close,” the report says.

Some of the draft details look to align with what is being reported from sources quoted by the Associated Press and the New York Times, as our full report details.

The deal would avoid an escalation of the war and decrease the pressure on the global oil supply, Axios says, adding:

However, it’s unclear whether it will lead to a lasting peace agreement that also addresses President Trump’s nuclear demands.”

The report says that during the 60-day Hormuz strait reopening, Iran would agree to clear mines it deployed in the waterway and allow ships to pass freely. In exchange, the US would lift its blockade on Iranian ports.

The report also says:

Both Trump and the mediators have indicated the deal could be announced on Sunday, though it has not been finalized and could still fall apart.”

Pakistan says ‘encouraging’ progress towards peace deal

The Pakistani army has said the negotiations with Iran resulted in “encouraging” progress towards a final understanding.

The deal being negotiated was “fairly comprehensive to terminate the war”, two Pakistani sources involved in the negotiations to end the war told Reuters.

Iran had said on Saturday that it was working towards a memorandum of understanding with the US laying out an approach to ending the war after its top officials met with Pakistani army chief Asim Munir.

Reuters quoted sources as saying the proposed framework would unfold in three stages: formally ending the war, resolving the crisis in the strait of Hormuz and launching a 30-day window for negotiations on a broader agreement, which can be extended.

One of the Pakistani sources also there was no guarantee the US would accept the memorandum. If it did, it would lead to further talks after the Eid holiday ended on Friday.

On Saturday Donald Trump told Axios he expected to decide on Sunday whether to resume attacks on Iran. “Either we reach a good deal or I’ll blow them to a thousand hells,” the news site quoted him as saying.

The Guardian

politics

FAO warns of agri-food shock from Strait of Hormuz closure

The Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) of the United Nations warned that a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz risks triggering a structural agrifood shock, which could culminate in a severe global food price crisis within six to 12 months.

The situation could be further exacerbated by the onset of the El Niño weather phenomenon, which is expected to cause droughts and disrupt rainfall and temperature patterns across multiple regions.

Because farmers are forced to plant with fewer inputs, crop yields are expected to drop over the next six to 12 months, resulting in global food shortages and severe inflation, as per ReliefWeb.

The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway connecting the Arabian Gulf to the open ocean, acts as a global artery for both energy and agriculture. It facilitates the trade of up to of internationally traded fertilizers and a significant portion of the sulfur required to manufacture them, as per FAO

The Chain Reaction

Energy epikes: A prolonged closure drives up oil and gas prices. Energy is required to physically move and operate the global food system.

Input shortages: Ships carrying vital materials (like nitrogen and phosphate) remain idle. Farmers facing shortages or prohibitively high costs for these nutrients cannot maintain optimal soil fertility.

Reduced yields: With fewer agricultural inputs available, crop yields per acre drop. This particularly threatens staples like wheat, rice, and maize.

The 6-to-12-month lag

Because the world has some existing food reserves, a “buffer” period prevents immediate panic.

However, during this 6-to-12-month timeframe, planting seasons will inevitably pass without the necessary inputs, FAO warns.

When these lower-yield harvests materialize down the line, global food supplies tighten, culminating in skyrocketing retail food prices and widespread inflation.

Humanitarian flows

To mitigate this outcome, the FAO recommended establishing alternative trade routes, managing export restrictions, safeguarding humanitarian aid flows, and building strategic reserves to absorb rising transport costs.

The organisation stressed that the window for proactive intervention is narrowing rapidly, noting that current decisions by farmers and governments regarding fertiliser application, imports, and financing will dictate whether a major crisis materialises.

According to the FAO, the shock is projected to ripple through consecutive phases, impacting energy, fertilisers, seeds, crop yields, and commodity prices before culminating in food inflation.