politics

What if disruption in Strait of Hormuz never ends?

For months, governments, businesses and financial markets treated the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz as a temporary crisis that would eventually ease through diplomacy or military de-escalation.

Moody’s Ratings is now warning the world may need to think differently.

In a new report, the ratings agency said the disruption to one of the world’s most important energy shipping routes is increasingly looking less like a short-term shock and more like a structural risk that could reshape global trade, energy markets and economic planning well beyond 2026.

The warning marks a shift in tone from earlier assessments that viewed the crisis mainly as a temporary supply disruption.

“We now have a single, central scenario which assumes a prolonged and significant disruption to the Strait of Hormuz through autumn,” Moody’s said.

Strait still vital to the world

The Strait of Hormuz handles around one-fifth of global crude oil and liquefied natural gas flows, making it one of the world’s most critical trade chokepoints.

But shipping through the route has fallen by more than 90 per cent from pre-conflict levels as insurers raise premiums, shipping companies avoid the area and concerns over sea mines continue to disrupt navigation.

The conflict itself may dominate headlines, but Moody’s said the larger issue is what happens if the disruption simply drags on for months.

That could mean permanently higher shipping costs, more expensive energy, slower trade flows and new supply chain strategies as companies and governments adjust to prolonged instability in the Gulf.

“Global shipping routes are being structurally rewired,” Moody’s said. The agency said countries are increasingly turning to non-Gulf suppliers, alternative pipeline routes and regional trade systems to reduce reliance on the Strait.

Higher oil prices now a norm?

Moody’s now expects Brent crude prices to remain between $90 and $110 a barrel for much of this year, significantly above earlier expectations.

For consumers, that could mean prolonged pressure on fuel prices, airfares, transport costs and inflation. “Persistently higher energy prices will lead to increases in inflation and production costs, limiting household purchasing power,” Moody’s said.

The agency warned that even if a ceasefire or political agreement is reached, a return to normal conditions would still take time because shipping backlogs, tanker repositioning and insurance systems would need months to stabilise.

The report also suggested that some changes triggered by the crisis may not reverse at all. “Some structural shifts in supply chain design, risk premiums and defense spending will probably be permanent,” Moody’s said.

Airlines, manufacturing risks

Industries that rely heavily on fuel and transport are among the sectors most exposed if elevated oil prices continue.

Moody’s identified airlines, chemicals and building materials companies as facing the “most acute pressure” because of high operating costs and limited ability to pass rising expenses onto customers.

Consumer sectors including retail, hospitality and manufacturing could also come under strain if households reduce spending in response to higher living costs.

“Airlines, building products and chemicals face the most acute pressure,” Moody’s said. At the same time, some sectors could benefit from the changing environment.

Energy producers outside the Gulf region and aerospace and defence companies are expected to gain from higher oil prices and increased geopolitical tensions.

Asia faces the biggest challenge

The report said Asian economies remain among the most vulnerable because of their dependence on Middle Eastern energy imports.

India was identified as one of the most exposed major economies because around 46 per cent of its crude oil imports come from the Middle East.

Japan and South Korea were also described as highly vulnerable despite holding large emergency reserves, while China could face pressure on industrial profitability even with state-controlled pricing and large stockpiles.

“At sustained Brent prices of $90–$110/bbl, we estimate real GDP growth reductions of 0.2–0.8 percentage point for several major economies,” Moody’s said.

Crisis world may have to adapt to

Perhaps the biggest message from the Moody’s report is that the global economy may no longer be waiting for the Strait of Hormuz crisis to end quickly.

Instead, governments, businesses and investors are increasingly preparing for the possibility that disruption, higher costs and geopolitical risk in one of the world’s most important trade routes could become part of the global economic landscape for the foreseeable future.

politics

US-Iran talks end in Doha, focus on Hormuz

Iran and the United States concluded a round of indirect talks on Wednesday with no sign they had made headway toward a lasting peace, focusing instead on ‌issues that they said had been resolved when an interim agreement was announced two weeks ago.

Sources familiar with the discussions said negotiators for the two countries spent two days in Doha discussing maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz and unfreezing Iran’s funds, two critical issues under the initial agreement.

The next meeting will take place after funeral processions for Iran’s late Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who is due to be buried on July 9, Qatar’s Foreign Ministry said.

The Doha discussions produced “positive progress” on issues related to the memorandum that halted the war in June and were “building on the outcomes” of ⁠a summit in Switzerland, the ministry spokesperson said in a post on X.

In Washington, U.S. President Donald Trump said the two sides were making progress on possible limits to Iran’s nuclear program — the main reason he launched the war along with Israel in February. “The denuclearization of Iran is moving along well,” he told reporters. “They’ve had very good meetings, and we’ll see.”

But the sources said the nuclear program did not come up in the talks, which were technical in nature.

U.S. Vice President JD Vance said that matter would be addressed later. “Obviously, we’re worried about the nuclear issue, we’re going to start talking about that,” he told reporters.

American and Iranian negotiators held separate meetings with Qatari and Pakistani mediators, Qatar’s foreign ministry said.

Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner and top U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff, dispatched to the region for what the White House had billed as “high-level” talks, did not attend the sessions, according to a source who spoke on condition of anonymity.

The leader of Iran’s delegation, Deputy ‌Foreign Minister ⁠Kazem Gharibabadi, said the talks concluded. Neither side said whether they had managed to bridge any of their differences.

WHO CONTROLS THE STRAIT?

The initial deal calls for Iran and the United States to allow shipping to resume through the Strait of Hormuz, which handled one-fifth of global oil and liquid natural gas trade before the war. Though traffic has partially resumed, the status of the strategic waterway remains unclear and the two countries exchanged strikes last weekend following an Iranian attack on a cargo ship.

Iran is determined to win international ⁠recognition of its control over the strait even if it has to do so by force, two senior Iranian sources said, and has repeatedly said it will assess tolls on shipping starting in mid-August, after a toll-free period specified by the initial agreement expires.

Trump’s comments on Wednesday played down the possibility of a return to all-out war with Iran. “I think they’ve ⁠come a long way,” he said.

Oil prices fell to their lowest level in four months following Trump’s remarks, and analysts cut their price forecasts for the first time since the war began.

Iran’s state media said on Wednesday that a foreign container ship had run aground in shallow waters outside the shipping route designated by ⁠Iranian authorities.

“Hormuz continues to reopen but it’s patchy, unpredictable, and not fully transparent,” said Vandana Hari, founder of oil market analysis provider Vanda Insights.

Several European countries have offered to help clear mines from the Strait, but Germany’s defense minister Boris Pistorius said he did not expect his country to participate, citing Iran’s unwillingness to cooperate with other countries.

politics

Trump says Iran talks begin as Tehran denies meeting

Mixed signals over US-Iran diplomacy kept the Middle East on edge after President Donald Trump announced talks in Qatar would begin on Tuesday, only for Tehran to deny any negotiations were planned. The uncertainty came as commercial shipping slowly resumed through the Strait of Hormuz, though traffic remained below normal levels. Meanwhile, Iran confirmed the death of a senior IRGC Navy official in a vehicle accident as efforts continued to preserve the fragile US-Iran ceasefire agreement. Follow our live updates:

06:33 AM, 30 June 2026

Trump says Iran meeting to take place in Qatar

US President Donald Trump said Iran has requested a meeting that will be held Tuesday in Qatar, despite Tehran denying any direct negotiations were planned with Washington on the deal aimed at ending the Middle East war.

The announcement came after Iran held its first talks with Oman on managing the Strait of Hormuz since the US-Iran deal was signed, and as Washington and Tehran agreed to halt their attacks, which had strained the agreement.

“IRAN HAS REQUESTED A MEETING. IT WILL TAKE PLACE TOMORROW IN DOHA!” Trump posted Monday on his Truth Social platform, without specifying the participants.

05:26 AM, 30 June 2026

IRGC Navy spokesperson Mohammad Akbarzadeh dies in reported ‘car rollover’

Mohammad Akbarzadeh, political deputy (and spokesperson) of the IRGC Navy, died in reported vehicle rollover accident in Iran’s Kerman province.

Iranian state-affiliated media, including Fars News Agency (IRGC-linked), reported that Akbarzadeh, political deputy (and spokesperson) of the IRGC Navy, died after his vehicle overturned on a road in Kerman province (southeastern Iran, on the route from Yazd).

Emergency responders transported him to a medical center, where he succumbed to his injuries.

Authorities have launched an investigation into the cause and circumstances.

This is corroborated by multiple outlets carrying the Iranian reporting, including Iran International, RIA Novosti/Sputnik affiliates, and social media summaries from observers.

03:45 AM, 30 June 2026

Lebanon state media says Israeli strike hits south

Lebanese state media on Monday said an Israeli strike hit the country’s south, despite a framework accord signed by the two countries last week aimed at securing a peace deal.

“Israeli warplanes carried out an airstrike targeting the area between the southern Lebanese towns of Qantara and Deir Seryan,” the state-run National News Agency said.

03:07 AM, 30 June 2026

Iran says ‘expert delegation’ heading to Qatar this week

Iran said a delegation of experts would travel to Doha this week for discussions on the implementation of the memorandum of understanding signed with the United States earlier this month.

“An expert delegation from the Islamic Republic of Iran will travel to Doha later this week” to discuss the implementation of clauses of the memorandum, foreign ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei said.

“We have not yet entered the stage of negotiating a final agreement,” he said, noting that “over the coming days, we will not have any negotiation meetings with the US side at any level”.

01:14 AM, 30 June 2026

Conflicting US-Iran signals keep Mideast on edge

Mixed signals over planned US-Iran negotiations injected fresh uncertainty into Middle East diplomacy, as Tehran denied that any talks were scheduled despite President Donald Trump’s announcement that American and Iranian officials would meet in Qatar this week.

Iran’s Foreign Ministry said no negotiations with the US were planned “at any level” in the coming days, contradicting Trump’s statement that talks would begin Tuesday. The conflicting messages have raised questions about the status of diplomatic efforts following weeks of heightened tensions in the region.

The uncertainty comes as negotiators seek to build on a fragile US-Iran memorandum of understanding intended to reduce hostilities and pave the way for a broader agreement addressing Iran’s nuclear program, regional security and sanctions relief.

01:02 AM, 30 June 2026

Shipping through Hormuz inches higher: tracking data

More than two dozen commercial vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz over the past 24 hours, according to MarineTraffic data, as global shipping companies cautiously resumed operations ahead of expected US-Iran peace talks that President Donald Trump said are scheduled to begin Tuesday.

The vessel count remains well below pre-conflict levels, underscoring continued concerns over security in one of the world’s most strategically important maritime chokepoints.

MarineTraffic data showed that 25 commercial ships passed through the strait during the latest 24-hour period. The outbound traffic from the Persian Gulf included six oil tankers and eight cargo vessels, while five tankers and six cargo ships entered the Gulf.

12:53 AM, 30 June 2026

Iran says implementation of MoU underway, final talks not yet started

Iran’s Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Esmail Baghaei has briefed reporters on developments related to the implementation of a memorandum of understanding (MoU), outlining progress on key provisions, according to official remarks.

He said the United States has issued the necessary authorisations under Article 10 of the MoU, related to oil sales, and that Iran is monitoring the implementation process.

Baghaei added that steps are also underway regarding the release of Iran’s frozen assets.

However, he clarified that negotiations on a final agreement have not yet begun.

He further said any visit by US representatives to Qatar is unrelated to the Iranian delegation’s trip, which is focused solely on follow-up implementation issues, including Article 11 of the MoU.

12:39 AM, 30 June 2026

Israel says Trump linked Iran and Lebanon conflicts during talks

US President Donald Trump pushed to link the wars in Lebanon and Iran during ceasefire discussions, despite Israel’s preference to treat them as separate conflicts, Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz said, according to a CNN report.

Katz said he regretted the linkage but noted it “served an American interest,” adding that Washington wanted to advance negotiations with Iran and saw the Lebanon front as an obstacle.

He also said Israel had no territorial ambitions in Lebanon but remains in place with US backing until Hezbollah is fully disarmed.

According to Katz, Israel has destroyed large parts of border villages and said displaced residents from southern Lebanon will not be allowed to return.

He also reiterated that Israel would strike Beirut’s Dahiyeh district if Hezbollah attacks northern Israel and said it is prepared to resume operations against Iran if diplomacy fails or if Iran attacks Israel.

12:19 AM, 30 June 2026

UAE allows citizens to travel to Lebanon

The UAE Ministry of Foreign Affairs has announced that Emirati citizens will be allowed to travel to Lebanon from Monday, June 29, 2026.

The ministry said registration through the Tawajudi service is mandatory before travel, adding that citizens will not be allowed to leave UAE ports of departure before completing the registration process to avoid travel procedures being suspended or legal accountability.

In a statement posted on Instagram, the ministry said UAE citizens must also notify the relevant authorities of their return through Tawajudi.

It urged citizens to contact the ministry in emergencies on +97180024.

The decision follows an earlier travel ban announced on April 30, 2026, when the ministry barred UAE citizens from travelling to Iran, Lebanon and Iraq due to regional developments and called on citizens already in those countries to leave and return to the UAE as soon as possible.

world

Qatar vessel incident: One killed, one injured

The Ministry of Interior of Qatar has confirmed that maritime search operations were carried out after a vessel carrying two individuals failed to return at its scheduled time, prompting an immediate response from the General Directorate of Coasts and Borders Security.

According to an official statement, routine monitoring and verification procedures first flagged the delay, following which maritime patrols launched a search operation on the evening of Saturday, June 27, 2026

The Maritime Search and Rescue Team located the vessel in the early hours of Sunday, June 28, the ministry said.

One killed, one injured in incident

The ministry confirmed that a Qatari citizen was killed after sustaining injuries from shrapnel linked to military activity in the area.

An Arab resident on board was also injured and has been hospitalised in stable condition.

Condolences and ongoing investigation

The Ministry of Interior extended its condolences to the family of the deceased, praying for mercy upon him, and wished a swift recovery for the injured individual.

It added that investigations are ongoing in accordance with established legal procedures.