politics

Will the Iran war restart? Why this week could prove critical

After weeks of uneasy calm, the fragile ceasefire between the United States, Israel and Iran appears increasingly at risk of collapse, with mounting signs that all sides are preparing for another possible round of conflict.

US President Donald Trump has escalated his rhetoric in recent hours, posting a series of warnings and threats on Truth Social amid reports he could soon meet military advisers to discuss next steps on Iran.

Multiple reports and regional sources suggest Washington and Israel are actively weighing renewed military action if ongoing negotiations fail to produce a breakthrough.

At the centre of the deadlock remains Iran’s highly enriched uranium stockpile — the single biggest obstacle preventing a broader agreement to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz fully.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu signalled over the weekend that Israel remains on alert for renewed hostilities.

Iran’s Foreign Ministry said discussions with Washington remain ongoing through Pakistan, which is acting as a mediator between the two sides.

Foreign ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei said Iran had responded to the latest US peace proposal and conveyed its concerns to Washington through the Pakistani channel.

He added that exchanges were “continuing through the Pakistani mediator”, even as Iranian media described parts of the latest US demands as excessive.

Why the ceasefire looks shaky

The current pause in fighting was never built on a comprehensive settlement. Instead, it created space for negotiations while both sides reassessed their positions after weeks of confrontation.

But the diplomatic process has stalled repeatedly.

Iran refuses to surrender or remove its enriched uranium stockpile, while Washington continues insisting that Tehran’s nuclear programme must be dismantled or sharply constrained before sanctions relief or a full end to military pressure can be discussed.

Meanwhile, the US-led naval blockade and security operations around the Strait of Hormuz have failed to fully restore commercial shipping confidence, despite “Project Freedom” escort efforts and international pressure.

That has created a dangerous new calculation on both sides: The belief that another round of fighting could improve leverage at the negotiating table.

What Iran may do differently next time

Analysts and regional observers increasingly believe Tehran is preparing for a broader and more aggressive retaliatory strategy if war resumes.

Iranian officials and state-linked commentators have openly warned that Gulf states allowing US or Israeli operations from their territory could face direct consequences in a future conflict.

Potential Iranian escalation scenarios being discussed by analysts include:

Strikes on critical Gulf infrastructure
Cyberattacks on financial and communications systems
Expanded disruption in the Red Sea
Attacks targeting energy or shipping assets
Attempts to disrupt undersea internet and fibre-optic cable networks in the Gulf
Such moves could dramatically widen the conflict and increase risks to global energy markets and international trade flows

Signs of war footing inside Iran

Iranian state television has also reflected a more militarised atmosphere in recent days.

On some broadcasts, presenters appeared carrying weapons or receiving firearms training on air, while pro-government messaging has increasingly focused on sacrifice, resistance and national mobilisation.

The images are being interpreted by some observers as an attempt to prepare public opinion for the possibility of renewed confrontation.

What to watch this week

Several developments could determine whether the region moves back toward war or returns to diplomacy:

Any Trump announcement following military consultations

Israeli military movements or mobilisation signals

Fresh Iranian warnings about Hormuz or Gulf states

Progress — or collapse — in backchannel negotiations

New attacks on shipping, energy infrastructure or regional bases

Diplomats say backchannel contacts through mediators are still continuing, meaning a negotiated off-ramp remains possible.

But with rhetoric intensifying and military preparations reportedly accelerating on all sides, the Middle East appears once again to be entering one of its most volatile moments since the war began earlier this year.

politics

US-Iran talks end in Doha, focus on Hormuz

Iran and the United States concluded a round of indirect talks on Wednesday with no sign they had made headway toward a lasting peace, focusing instead on ‌issues that they said had been resolved when an interim agreement was announced two weeks ago.

Sources familiar with the discussions said negotiators for the two countries spent two days in Doha discussing maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz and unfreezing Iran’s funds, two critical issues under the initial agreement.

The next meeting will take place after funeral processions for Iran’s late Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who is due to be buried on July 9, Qatar’s Foreign Ministry said.

The Doha discussions produced “positive progress” on issues related to the memorandum that halted the war in June and were “building on the outcomes” of ⁠a summit in Switzerland, the ministry spokesperson said in a post on X.

In Washington, U.S. President Donald Trump said the two sides were making progress on possible limits to Iran’s nuclear program — the main reason he launched the war along with Israel in February. “The denuclearization of Iran is moving along well,” he told reporters. “They’ve had very good meetings, and we’ll see.”

But the sources said the nuclear program did not come up in the talks, which were technical in nature.

U.S. Vice President JD Vance said that matter would be addressed later. “Obviously, we’re worried about the nuclear issue, we’re going to start talking about that,” he told reporters.

American and Iranian negotiators held separate meetings with Qatari and Pakistani mediators, Qatar’s foreign ministry said.

Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner and top U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff, dispatched to the region for what the White House had billed as “high-level” talks, did not attend the sessions, according to a source who spoke on condition of anonymity.

The leader of Iran’s delegation, Deputy ‌Foreign Minister ⁠Kazem Gharibabadi, said the talks concluded. Neither side said whether they had managed to bridge any of their differences.

WHO CONTROLS THE STRAIT?

The initial deal calls for Iran and the United States to allow shipping to resume through the Strait of Hormuz, which handled one-fifth of global oil and liquid natural gas trade before the war. Though traffic has partially resumed, the status of the strategic waterway remains unclear and the two countries exchanged strikes last weekend following an Iranian attack on a cargo ship.

Iran is determined to win international ⁠recognition of its control over the strait even if it has to do so by force, two senior Iranian sources said, and has repeatedly said it will assess tolls on shipping starting in mid-August, after a toll-free period specified by the initial agreement expires.

Trump’s comments on Wednesday played down the possibility of a return to all-out war with Iran. “I think they’ve ⁠come a long way,” he said.

Oil prices fell to their lowest level in four months following Trump’s remarks, and analysts cut their price forecasts for the first time since the war began.

Iran’s state media said on Wednesday that a foreign container ship had run aground in shallow waters outside the shipping route designated by ⁠Iranian authorities.

“Hormuz continues to reopen but it’s patchy, unpredictable, and not fully transparent,” said Vandana Hari, founder of oil market analysis provider Vanda Insights.

Several European countries have offered to help clear mines from the Strait, but Germany’s defense minister Boris Pistorius said he did not expect his country to participate, citing Iran’s unwillingness to cooperate with other countries.

politics

Trump says Iran talks begin as Tehran denies meeting

Mixed signals over US-Iran diplomacy kept the Middle East on edge after President Donald Trump announced talks in Qatar would begin on Tuesday, only for Tehran to deny any negotiations were planned. The uncertainty came as commercial shipping slowly resumed through the Strait of Hormuz, though traffic remained below normal levels. Meanwhile, Iran confirmed the death of a senior IRGC Navy official in a vehicle accident as efforts continued to preserve the fragile US-Iran ceasefire agreement. Follow our live updates:

06:33 AM, 30 June 2026

Trump says Iran meeting to take place in Qatar

US President Donald Trump said Iran has requested a meeting that will be held Tuesday in Qatar, despite Tehran denying any direct negotiations were planned with Washington on the deal aimed at ending the Middle East war.

The announcement came after Iran held its first talks with Oman on managing the Strait of Hormuz since the US-Iran deal was signed, and as Washington and Tehran agreed to halt their attacks, which had strained the agreement.

“IRAN HAS REQUESTED A MEETING. IT WILL TAKE PLACE TOMORROW IN DOHA!” Trump posted Monday on his Truth Social platform, without specifying the participants.

05:26 AM, 30 June 2026

IRGC Navy spokesperson Mohammad Akbarzadeh dies in reported ‘car rollover’

Mohammad Akbarzadeh, political deputy (and spokesperson) of the IRGC Navy, died in reported vehicle rollover accident in Iran’s Kerman province.

Iranian state-affiliated media, including Fars News Agency (IRGC-linked), reported that Akbarzadeh, political deputy (and spokesperson) of the IRGC Navy, died after his vehicle overturned on a road in Kerman province (southeastern Iran, on the route from Yazd).

Emergency responders transported him to a medical center, where he succumbed to his injuries.

Authorities have launched an investigation into the cause and circumstances.

This is corroborated by multiple outlets carrying the Iranian reporting, including Iran International, RIA Novosti/Sputnik affiliates, and social media summaries from observers.

03:45 AM, 30 June 2026

Lebanon state media says Israeli strike hits south

Lebanese state media on Monday said an Israeli strike hit the country’s south, despite a framework accord signed by the two countries last week aimed at securing a peace deal.

“Israeli warplanes carried out an airstrike targeting the area between the southern Lebanese towns of Qantara and Deir Seryan,” the state-run National News Agency said.

03:07 AM, 30 June 2026

Iran says ‘expert delegation’ heading to Qatar this week

Iran said a delegation of experts would travel to Doha this week for discussions on the implementation of the memorandum of understanding signed with the United States earlier this month.

“An expert delegation from the Islamic Republic of Iran will travel to Doha later this week” to discuss the implementation of clauses of the memorandum, foreign ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei said.

“We have not yet entered the stage of negotiating a final agreement,” he said, noting that “over the coming days, we will not have any negotiation meetings with the US side at any level”.

01:14 AM, 30 June 2026

Conflicting US-Iran signals keep Mideast on edge

Mixed signals over planned US-Iran negotiations injected fresh uncertainty into Middle East diplomacy, as Tehran denied that any talks were scheduled despite President Donald Trump’s announcement that American and Iranian officials would meet in Qatar this week.

Iran’s Foreign Ministry said no negotiations with the US were planned “at any level” in the coming days, contradicting Trump’s statement that talks would begin Tuesday. The conflicting messages have raised questions about the status of diplomatic efforts following weeks of heightened tensions in the region.

The uncertainty comes as negotiators seek to build on a fragile US-Iran memorandum of understanding intended to reduce hostilities and pave the way for a broader agreement addressing Iran’s nuclear program, regional security and sanctions relief.

01:02 AM, 30 June 2026

Shipping through Hormuz inches higher: tracking data

More than two dozen commercial vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz over the past 24 hours, according to MarineTraffic data, as global shipping companies cautiously resumed operations ahead of expected US-Iran peace talks that President Donald Trump said are scheduled to begin Tuesday.

The vessel count remains well below pre-conflict levels, underscoring continued concerns over security in one of the world’s most strategically important maritime chokepoints.

MarineTraffic data showed that 25 commercial ships passed through the strait during the latest 24-hour period. The outbound traffic from the Persian Gulf included six oil tankers and eight cargo vessels, while five tankers and six cargo ships entered the Gulf.

12:53 AM, 30 June 2026

Iran says implementation of MoU underway, final talks not yet started

Iran’s Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Esmail Baghaei has briefed reporters on developments related to the implementation of a memorandum of understanding (MoU), outlining progress on key provisions, according to official remarks.

He said the United States has issued the necessary authorisations under Article 10 of the MoU, related to oil sales, and that Iran is monitoring the implementation process.

Baghaei added that steps are also underway regarding the release of Iran’s frozen assets.

However, he clarified that negotiations on a final agreement have not yet begun.

He further said any visit by US representatives to Qatar is unrelated to the Iranian delegation’s trip, which is focused solely on follow-up implementation issues, including Article 11 of the MoU.

12:39 AM, 30 June 2026

Israel says Trump linked Iran and Lebanon conflicts during talks

US President Donald Trump pushed to link the wars in Lebanon and Iran during ceasefire discussions, despite Israel’s preference to treat them as separate conflicts, Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz said, according to a CNN report.

Katz said he regretted the linkage but noted it “served an American interest,” adding that Washington wanted to advance negotiations with Iran and saw the Lebanon front as an obstacle.

He also said Israel had no territorial ambitions in Lebanon but remains in place with US backing until Hezbollah is fully disarmed.

According to Katz, Israel has destroyed large parts of border villages and said displaced residents from southern Lebanon will not be allowed to return.

He also reiterated that Israel would strike Beirut’s Dahiyeh district if Hezbollah attacks northern Israel and said it is prepared to resume operations against Iran if diplomacy fails or if Iran attacks Israel.

12:19 AM, 30 June 2026

UAE allows citizens to travel to Lebanon

The UAE Ministry of Foreign Affairs has announced that Emirati citizens will be allowed to travel to Lebanon from Monday, June 29, 2026.

The ministry said registration through the Tawajudi service is mandatory before travel, adding that citizens will not be allowed to leave UAE ports of departure before completing the registration process to avoid travel procedures being suspended or legal accountability.

In a statement posted on Instagram, the ministry said UAE citizens must also notify the relevant authorities of their return through Tawajudi.

It urged citizens to contact the ministry in emergencies on +97180024.

The decision follows an earlier travel ban announced on April 30, 2026, when the ministry barred UAE citizens from travelling to Iran, Lebanon and Iraq due to regional developments and called on citizens already in those countries to leave and return to the UAE as soon as possible.

world

Qatar vessel incident: One killed, one injured

The Ministry of Interior of Qatar has confirmed that maritime search operations were carried out after a vessel carrying two individuals failed to return at its scheduled time, prompting an immediate response from the General Directorate of Coasts and Borders Security.

According to an official statement, routine monitoring and verification procedures first flagged the delay, following which maritime patrols launched a search operation on the evening of Saturday, June 27, 2026

The Maritime Search and Rescue Team located the vessel in the early hours of Sunday, June 28, the ministry said.

One killed, one injured in incident

The ministry confirmed that a Qatari citizen was killed after sustaining injuries from shrapnel linked to military activity in the area.

An Arab resident on board was also injured and has been hospitalised in stable condition.

Condolences and ongoing investigation

The Ministry of Interior extended its condolences to the family of the deceased, praying for mercy upon him, and wished a swift recovery for the injured individual.

It added that investigations are ongoing in accordance with established legal procedures.