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Will the Iran war restart? Why this week could prove critical

After weeks of uneasy calm, the fragile ceasefire between the United States, Israel and Iran appears increasingly at risk of collapse, with mounting signs that all sides are preparing for another possible round of conflict.

US President Donald Trump has escalated his rhetoric in recent hours, posting a series of warnings and threats on Truth Social amid reports he could soon meet military advisers to discuss next steps on Iran.

Multiple reports and regional sources suggest Washington and Israel are actively weighing renewed military action if ongoing negotiations fail to produce a breakthrough.

At the centre of the deadlock remains Iran’s highly enriched uranium stockpile — the single biggest obstacle preventing a broader agreement to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz fully.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu signalled over the weekend that Israel remains on alert for renewed hostilities.

Iran’s Foreign Ministry said discussions with Washington remain ongoing through Pakistan, which is acting as a mediator between the two sides.

Foreign ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei said Iran had responded to the latest US peace proposal and conveyed its concerns to Washington through the Pakistani channel.

He added that exchanges were “continuing through the Pakistani mediator”, even as Iranian media described parts of the latest US demands as excessive.

Why the ceasefire looks shaky

The current pause in fighting was never built on a comprehensive settlement. Instead, it created space for negotiations while both sides reassessed their positions after weeks of confrontation.

But the diplomatic process has stalled repeatedly.

Iran refuses to surrender or remove its enriched uranium stockpile, while Washington continues insisting that Tehran’s nuclear programme must be dismantled or sharply constrained before sanctions relief or a full end to military pressure can be discussed.

Meanwhile, the US-led naval blockade and security operations around the Strait of Hormuz have failed to fully restore commercial shipping confidence, despite “Project Freedom” escort efforts and international pressure.

That has created a dangerous new calculation on both sides: The belief that another round of fighting could improve leverage at the negotiating table.

What Iran may do differently next time

Analysts and regional observers increasingly believe Tehran is preparing for a broader and more aggressive retaliatory strategy if war resumes.

Iranian officials and state-linked commentators have openly warned that Gulf states allowing US or Israeli operations from their territory could face direct consequences in a future conflict.

Potential Iranian escalation scenarios being discussed by analysts include:

  • Strikes on critical Gulf infrastructure
  • Cyberattacks on financial and communications systems
  • Expanded disruption in the Red Sea
  • Attacks targeting energy or shipping assets
  • Attempts to disrupt undersea internet and fibre-optic cable networks in the Gulf
  • Such moves could dramatically widen the conflict and increase risks to global energy markets and international trade flows

Signs of war footing inside Iran

Iranian state television has also reflected a more militarised atmosphere in recent days.

On some broadcasts, presenters appeared carrying weapons or receiving firearms training on air, while pro-government messaging has increasingly focused on sacrifice, resistance and national mobilisation.

The images are being interpreted by some observers as an attempt to prepare public opinion for the possibility of renewed confrontation.

What to watch this week

Several developments could determine whether the region moves back toward war or returns to diplomacy:

Any Trump announcement following military consultations

Israeli military movements or mobilisation signals

Fresh Iranian warnings about Hormuz or Gulf states

Progress — or collapse — in backchannel negotiations

New attacks on shipping, energy infrastructure or regional bases

Diplomats say backchannel contacts through mediators are still continuing, meaning a negotiated off-ramp remains possible.

But with rhetoric intensifying and military preparations reportedly accelerating on all sides, the Middle East appears once again to be entering one of its most volatile moments since the war began earlier this year.

GN

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world

Saudi Arabia launches Red Sea shipping route

The Saudi Ports Authority (Mawani) has launched a new cargo shipping service linking Jeddah Islamic Port with Salalah in Oman and the Port of Djibouti, as the Kingdom accelerates efforts to strengthen maritime connectivity and position itself as a regional logistics hub.

According to Saudi state television, the service has a carrying capacity of up to 1,730 twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) and is aimed at supporting the kingdom’s import and export activity while expanding links with regional and international ports.

The move forms part of Saudi Arabia’s broader logistics strategy under Vision 2030, which seeks to diversify economy and strengthen the kingdom’s role in global trade routes connecting Asia, Africa and Europe. Mawani recently launched the “Red Sea Express” cargo shipping service through King Fahd Industrial Port in Yanbu, linking Saudi Arabia with Ain Sokhna in Egypt and Aqaba in Jordan to improve regional trade and supply-chain efficiency.

The Kingdom has invested heavily in ports, shipping infrastructure and logistics corridors in recent years as GCC countries compete to become major transport and trade hubs.

GN

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politics

Pakistan hopes to host US-Iran peace talks ‘very soon

Pakistani prime minister Shehbaz Sharif has congratulated Donald Trump on his peace efforts and said Pakistan hopes to host another round of talks between the US and Iran “very soon”.

Sharif also said in a post on X that the US president held a “very useful and productive” phone call earlier in the day with the leaders of Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Turkey, Egypt, the UAE, Jordan and Pakistan, with Pakistani army chief Syed Asim Munir also on the line.

Sharif said:

The discussions provided a useful opportunity to exchange views on the current regional situation and how to move the ongoing peace efforts forward to bring lasting peace in the region. Pakistan will continue its peace efforts with utmost sincerity and we hope to host the next round of talks very soon.”

US vice-president JD Vance led a US delegation to Islamabad in the first round of peace talks with Iran six weeks ago, which ended without an agreement.

Iran executed one person for charges related to sending information to the US and Israel during the war, the Iranian judiciary’s Mizan news agency reported on Sunday, according to Reuters.

The individual was sending data about Iran’s defence industry to “the enemy”, the news agency alleged.

The draft agreement between the US and Iran also makes clear the Israel- Hezbollah war in Lebanon would end, Axios is reporting.

The newsite quotes an unnamed Israeli official as saying Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu expressed concern about that condition – and other aspects of the deal – during a call with Donald Trump on Saturday.

The report went on:

The US official said it would not be a ‘one-sided ceasefire’ and if Hezbollah tried to rearm or instigate attacks, Israel would be allowed to take action to prevent it. ‘If Hezbollah behaves, Israel will behave.’”

As just mentioned, the report says the agreement is only in unfinalised draft form and “could still fall apart”, according to a US official.

Peace draft involves reopening Hormuz strait during 60-day truce extension – report

The agreement the US and Iran are reportedly close to signing involves a 60-day ceasefire extension during which the strait of Hormuz would be reopened, according to Axios.

During that time Iran would be able to freely sell oil and negotiations would be held on curbing Iran’s nuclear program, the US news site is reporting, citing an American official, while also saying the details were in an agreement “draft” as it currently stood.

“Those details have not been confirmed by the Iranian side, though Tehran has also indicated a deal is getting close,” the report says.

Some of the draft details look to align with what is being reported from sources quoted by the Associated Press and the New York Times, as our full report details.

The deal would avoid an escalation of the war and decrease the pressure on the global oil supply, Axios says, adding:

However, it’s unclear whether it will lead to a lasting peace agreement that also addresses President Trump’s nuclear demands.”

The report says that during the 60-day Hormuz strait reopening, Iran would agree to clear mines it deployed in the waterway and allow ships to pass freely. In exchange, the US would lift its blockade on Iranian ports.

The report also says:

Both Trump and the mediators have indicated the deal could be announced on Sunday, though it has not been finalized and could still fall apart.”

Pakistan says ‘encouraging’ progress towards peace deal

The Pakistani army has said the negotiations with Iran resulted in “encouraging” progress towards a final understanding.

The deal being negotiated was “fairly comprehensive to terminate the war”, two Pakistani sources involved in the negotiations to end the war told Reuters.

Iran had said on Saturday that it was working towards a memorandum of understanding with the US laying out an approach to ending the war after its top officials met with Pakistani army chief Asim Munir.

Reuters quoted sources as saying the proposed framework would unfold in three stages: formally ending the war, resolving the crisis in the strait of Hormuz and launching a 30-day window for negotiations on a broader agreement, which can be extended.

One of the Pakistani sources also there was no guarantee the US would accept the memorandum. If it did, it would lead to further talks after the Eid holiday ended on Friday.

On Saturday Donald Trump told Axios he expected to decide on Sunday whether to resume attacks on Iran. “Either we reach a good deal or I’ll blow them to a thousand hells,” the news site quoted him as saying.

The Guardian

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politics

FAO warns of agri-food shock from Strait of Hormuz closure

The Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) of the United Nations warned that a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz risks triggering a structural agrifood shock, which could culminate in a severe global food price crisis within six to 12 months.

The situation could be further exacerbated by the onset of the El Niño weather phenomenon, which is expected to cause droughts and disrupt rainfall and temperature patterns across multiple regions.

Because farmers are forced to plant with fewer inputs, crop yields are expected to drop over the next six to 12 months, resulting in global food shortages and severe inflation, as per ReliefWeb.

The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway connecting the Arabian Gulf to the open ocean, acts as a global artery for both energy and agriculture. It facilitates the trade of up to  of internationally traded fertilizers and a significant portion of the sulfur required to manufacture them, as per FAO

The Chain Reaction

Energy epikes: A prolonged closure drives up oil and gas prices. Energy is required to physically move and operate the global food system.

Input shortages: Ships carrying vital materials (like nitrogen and phosphate) remain idle. Farmers facing shortages or prohibitively high costs for these nutrients cannot maintain optimal soil fertility.

Reduced yields: With fewer agricultural inputs available, crop yields per acre drop. This particularly threatens staples like wheat, rice, and maize. 

The 6-to-12-month lag

Because the world has some existing food reserves, a “buffer” period prevents immediate panic.

However, during this 6-to-12-month timeframe, planting seasons will inevitably pass without the necessary inputs, FAO warns.

When these lower-yield harvests materialize down the line, global food supplies tighten, culminating in skyrocketing retail food prices and widespread inflation. 

Humanitarian flows

To mitigate this outcome, the FAO recommended establishing alternative trade routes, managing export restrictions, safeguarding humanitarian aid flows, and building strategic reserves to absorb rising transport costs.

The organisation stressed that the window for proactive intervention is narrowing rapidly, noting that current decisions by farmers and governments regarding fertiliser application, imports, and financing will dictate whether a major crisis materialises.

According to the FAO, the shock is projected to ripple through consecutive phases, impacting energy, fertilisers, seeds, crop yields, and commodity prices before culminating in food inflation.

GN

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