politics

US‑Israel war on Iran, Day 19: Iran vows revenge for Ali Larijani’s death

Tensions across the Gulf escalate as Iran confirms the killing of senior figure Ali Larijani and missile exchanges intensify. UAE air defences intercept ongoing threats while authorities lift emergency alerts. Regional leaders condemn attacks, report casualties, and reinforce security, as diplomatic warnings, flight disruptions, and military responses continue to unfold. Follow our live coverage for the latest updates on this developing crisis:

11:15 AM, 18 March 2026

Iraq resumes limited oil exports via Turkey

Iraq announced on Wednesday it had resumed limited oil exports of 250,000 bpd through the Turkish port of Ceyhan after the country’s output plunged due to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.

A founding member of the OPEC cartel, crude oil sales make up 90 per cent of Iraq’s budget revenues. Before the outbreak of war on February 28, Iraq mainly shipped its oil – roughly 3.5 million barrels per day – from the southern Basra fields via the Strait of Hormuz.

The state-owned North Oil Company said it “has begun operating the Sarlo pumping station to resume pumping and exporting Kirkuk oil to the port of Ceyhan with an initial capacity of 250,000 barrels per day”.

Iraq resumed oil exports from its fields in the northern Kirkuk province “after a disruptive period that posed a significant challenge to the oil sector,” and in agreement with the autonomous Kurdistan Region, through which the pipeline to Turkey’s port of Ceyhan runs.

Iraq has been scrambling to find a solution to export its oil, and there have been long-running talks with Iraqi Kurdistan to ship it through the autonomous region.

Kurdish authorities had asked for several measures in return, before agreeing to let the oil flow through the region’s pipeline.

The Kurdistan natural resources ministry said that the Sarlo oil station began operating at 6:30 am (0330 GMT) to enable exports via the Kurdistan region pipeline to the port of Ceyhan.

11:13 AM, 18 March 2026

Iran to hold funeral for slain security chief

Iran will hold a funeral Wednesday for its security chief Ali Larijani as it vowed revenge, firing off a wave of missiles at Israel after it killed the powerful figure in an air strike.

According to Iran’s Fars and Tasnim news agencies, funerals for Larijani and another powerful figure killed by Israel, Gholamreza Soleimani, the head of the Basij paramilitary force, will take place from 1030 GMT in Tehran.

Their deaths were announced Tuesday.

10:38 AM, 18 March 2026

New Israeli strike on central Beirut without warning: state media

A new Israeli strike hit central Beirut’s Zuqaq al-Blat neighbourhood on Wednesday, state media reported, the second on the densely populated area since the early morning without prior warning.

A blast was heard throughout the capital, and AFPTV’s live broadcast showed plumes of smoke rising from the area as the war between Hezbollah and Israel continued.

A building in Bashoura, also in central Beirut, was struck earlier following an Israeli warning.

10:27 AM, 18 March 2026

UAE successfullyresponds to Iranian missiles and drones

Dubai Media Office, through a social media post, confirms that the situation in the country is currently safe, following earlier warnings about potential missile threats.

10:10 AM, 18 March 2026

UAE residents get emergency alert over missile threat

The Ministry of Defence has warned of a potential missile threat. Residents are urged to move to the nearest secure building, stay away from windows, doors, and open areas, and await official instructions.

Authorities have stressed the importance of staying in safe locations, following official channels for real-time updates, and remaining vigilant as the situation develops.

Air defense systems are currently responding to a missile threat. Please remain in a safe location and follow official channels for warnings and updates.

Residents and travellers are strongly urged to:

Remain in a safe location until the threat is resolved
Follow official channels for real-time warnings, updates, and instructions
Avoid spreading unverified information that could cause panic

10:10 AM, 18 March 2026

UN nuclear watchdog says Iranian authorities reported a projectile impact at the country’s only operational nuclear power plant that caused no damage

UN nuclear watchdog says Iranian authorities reported a projectile impact at the country’s only operational nuclear power plant that caused no damage

US‑Israel war on Iran, Day 19: Iran vows revenge for security chief Ali Larijani's death 09:46 AM, 18 March 2026

Iran executes man convicted of spying for Israel: judiciary

Iranian authorities have executed a man convicted of spying for Israel, the judiciary said on Wednesday, in the first such execution announced since the war with Israel and the United States broke out.

Mizan identified the man as Kouroush Keyvani and said he was arrested during Iran’s 12-day war with Israel in June. The US briefly joined with strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities.

It listed details of his meetings with agents from Israel’s Mossad spy agency and said he received training in “six European countries and in Tel Aviv.”

On February 28, Israel and the US launched strikes on Iran, killing its supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and triggering another war that has spread across the Middle East.

09:56 AM, 18 March 2026

Dubai gold down Dh40 from March peak

Gold prices in Dubai edged slightly higher on Wednesday morning, with 24K at Dh601 and 22K at Dh556.50, but remain about Dh40 below the March peak, indicating that the earlier rally has cooled. Prices have moved within a narrow range in recent days, even as global gold holds near record levels, prompting buyers to assess whether this softer phase offers a timely entry point for jewellery purchases.

09:22 AM, 18 March 2026

Tesla opens free charging across UAE, Saudi Arabia and Qatar

Tesla has enabled free Supercharging across more than 30 stations in the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Qatar from midnight local time, after a user appeal and in line with its policy of supporting drivers during difficult situations, giving Tesla owners immediate cost relief and uninterrupted access to charging across key cities including Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Riyadh, Jeddah and Doha.

09:21 AM, 18 March 2026

About 90 ships cross the Strait of Hormuz

About 90 ships including oil tankers have crossed the Strait of Hormuz since the outset of the war with Iran and it is still exporting millions of barrels of oil at a time when the waterway has been effectively closed, according to maritime and trade data platforms.

Many of the vessels that passed through the strait were so-called “dark” transits evading Western government sanctions and oversight that likely have ties to Iran, maritime data firm Lloyd’s List Intelligence said. More recently, vessels with ties to India and Pakistan have also successfully crossed the strait as governments stepped up negotiations.

09:13 AM, 18 March 2026

No request from US to help keep Strait of Hormuz open

A senior Australian government minister said he isn’t aware of any formal U.S. request for military support to keep the Strait of Hormuz open.

Treasurer Jim Chalmers was responding Wednesday to US President Donald Trump’s complaint that Australia, Japan, South Korea and NATO had rejected his calls to help secure the strait from Iranian attack.

Asked if Australia had received any formal US request for extra military support to keep the strait open, Chalmers told Australian Broadcasting Corp: “Not that I’m aware of.”

“It’s not something that we’ve been considering, in terms of sending battleships to the Strait of Hormuz,” Chalmers told Sky News television in another interview.

09:11 AM, 18 March 2026

Iran vows revenge for security chief Larijani’s killing

Iran vowed on Wednesday a “decisive” retaliation for the death of its security chief Ali Larijani, firing off a wave of missiles at Israel which said it killed him in an air strike.

A barrage of Iranian missiles killed two people near Israel’s commercial hub Tel Aviv, while Gulf nations intercepted rockets and drones headed for targets including US bases in the region.

Iran will hold funerals Wednesday for Larijani and another powerful figure killed Tuesday by Israel, Gholamreza Soleimani, the head of the Basij paramilitary force, according to the Fars and Tasnim news agencies.

Larijani is the most prominent figure of the Islamic republic killed since Israel and the United States launched their attacks on Iran on February 28, killing supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and igniting a war in the Middle East.

“Iran’s response to the assassination of the secretary of the Supreme National Security Council will be decisive and regrettable,” Iranian army chief Amir Hatami said in a statement.

09:08 AM, 18 March 2026

Building collapses in Beirut following Israeli strike

A building collapses in Beirut following an Israeli strike after the Israeli military called on residents of the city’s central neighbourhood to evacuate, warning of an imminent attack on the Lebanese capital targeting the Iran-backed militant group Hezbollah.

07:37 AM, 18 March 2026

Qatar intercepts missile attack as blasts heard in Doha

Qatar’s defence ministry said it intercepted a missile attack on Wednesday as blasts were heard in Doha.

“Armed forces intercepted missile attack which targeted State of Qatar,” the ministry of defence said in a statement, released shortly after an AFP journalist in the capital heard several blasts.

07:20 AM, 18 March 2026

Iran’s foreign minister says global repercussions of war ‘will hit all’

The repercussions of the war in the Middle East would be felt globally, Iran’s top diplomat said on Wednesday, suggesting more Western officials should push back against the conflict.

“Wave of global repercussions has only begun and will hit all – regardless of wealth, faith, or race,” Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi posted on X, accompanied by a copy of the US National Counterterrorism Center director’s resignation announcement prompted by the war on Tuesday.

“A rising number of voices – (including) European and U.S. officials – exclaim that the war on Iran is unjust. More members of the international community should follow suit,” the post added.

07:15 AM, 18 March 2026

Fresh alert issued after UAE responds to Iran threat

The UAE has issued a new security alert following an earlier notification reassuring residents of their safety after a potential missile and drone threat from Iran.

Authorities urged the public to remain vigilant, follow official guidance, and rely only on verified updates. Emergency services have confirmed that precautionary measures are in place, and residents are advised to stay in secure locations until further notice.

The Ministry of Interior and defence authorities continue to monitor the situation closely and will provide timely updates to ensure public safety.

06:32 AM, 18 March 2026

UAE air defenses responding to missile threat

UAE residents get emergency alert over missile threat

Authorities have stressed the importance of staying in safe locations, following official channels for real-time updates, and remaining vigilant as the situation develops.

Residents and travellers are strongly urged to:

Remain in a safe location until the threat is resolved
Follow official channels for real-time warnings, updates, and instructions
Avoid spreading unverified information that could cause panic

06:28 AM, 18 March 2026

Saudi Arabia defences intercept ballistic missile near air base

Saudi Arabia has intercepted a ballistic missile near Prince Sultan Air Base, which houses US military personnel, the defence ministry said on Wednesday as Iran continues strikes on Gulf nations.

05:48 AM, 18 March 2026

Iran missile fire kills two in central Israel

An Iranian missile barrage killed two people near Israel’s commercial hub Tel Aviv, medics said Wednesday, as the national railway company suspended operations due to shrapnel impact at a station in the city.

Authorities reported that falling munitions had hit multiple sites in central Israel in the overnight barrage that triggered air raid sirens across the area, after another day of heavy Israeli bombardments in Iran and Lebanon.

The latest deaths took the toll from missile attacks on Israel since the start of the Middle East war late last month to 14 people.

AFP footage from Ramat Gan, a city just outside Tel Aviv, showed police officers, rescuers and military personnel on a street strewn with rubble.

Israel’s Magen David Adom emergency medical service said two people were found dead at the scene.

05:18 AM, 18 March 2026

Lebanon says at least 6 dead, 24 wounded in Israeli strikes on central Beirut

Lebanon’s health ministry said that two Israeli strikes on central Beirut early Wednesday killed at least six people and wounded 24 others, noting the toll was preliminary.

“Human remains were also recovered from the site and their identities will be determined after DNA testing,” the ministry statement said.

04:39 AM, 18 March 2026

Qatar Airways to resume limited flights from March 18 to 28

Qatar Airways has announced that it will resume operating a limited number of flights during the period from March 18 to 28.

In a statement, the airline said that passengers can book flights through its official website or the Qatar Airways mobile application.

04:17 AM, 18 March 2026

Bahrain intercepts 129 missiles, 233 drones

Bahrain on Wednesday said it has so far intercepted 129 missiles and 233 drones since the beginning of the US-Israel war on Iran more than two weeks ago.

03:16 AM, 18 March 2026

Abdullah expresses condolences, sympathy to families of victims of Iran’s terror attacks against UAE

Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs, expressed his sincere condolences and deep sympathy to the families of the victims of Iran’s unprovoked terrorist attacks targeting the UAE.

The victims, who lost their lives as a result of these blatant attacks are: Alaa Nader Awni from the State of Palestine; Murib Zaman Nizar, Muzaffar Ali Ghulam, and Ismail Salim Khan from the Islamic Republic of Pakistan; Ahmed Ali from the People’s Republic of Bangladesh; and Dibas Shrestha from the Federal Democratic Republic of Nepal.

Sheikh Abdullah underscored the UAE’s continued commitment to the safety and security of all citizens, residents, and visitors.

He condemned in the strongest terms the continued Iranian missile and drone attacks, which have persisted for 18 consecutive days and involved more than 2,000 ballistic and cruise missiles and drones targeting critical civilian infrastructure, airports, residential areas, and civilian sites across the UAE.

02:46 AM, 18 March 2026

UAE emergency alert lifted

UAE authorities have announced that the emergency alert has been lifted and the situation is now safe.

In an official update, government agencies confirmed that all necessary precautionary measures had been carried out and there is no longer any immediate threat. Residents and visitors were advised that normal activities can resume, while authorities continue to monitor the situation closely.

Officials also urged the public to stay informed through official channels and avoid spreading unverified information, emphasising that the country’s security systems remain fully operational and ready to respond to any future developments.

02:01 AM, 18 March 2026

UAE air defences responding to missile, drone threats

Air defenses in the United Arab Emirates are actively intercepting incoming missile and drone threats launched from Iran, according to the country’s Ministry of Defence.

The ministry said the loud sounds heard across parts of the UAE are the result of air defense systems engaging and destroying incoming projectiles, confirming they are interceptions rather than direct strikes.

01:55 AM, 18 March 2026

UAE rejects aggression targeting its security, sovereignty

The United Arab Emirates Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a strong statement condemning Iranian attacks, warning that the country is fully prepared to respond to any threats against its territory and people.

The UAE Ministry of Foreign Affairs has stated: “Amid the unprovoked Iranian terrorist attacks, the United Arab Emirates unequivocally rejects any aggression targeting its security or sovereignty, and affirms that it remains steadfast and fully prepared to respond decisively to any threat. The UAE will not tolerate any attempt to compromise its security or territorial integrity, and will act with absolute resolve to protect its citizens, residents, and visitors, and defend its national interests.”

01:38 AM, 18 March 2026

Muslim Council of Elders strongly condemns terrorist plot targeting Kuwait

The Muslim Council of Elders has strongly condemned, in the strongest terms, the terrorist plot that targeted the State of Kuwait.

The Council affirmed its unequivocal rejection of all forms of extremism, terrorism, and criminal plots aimed at undermining the security and stability of Gulf and Arab states and commends the competence, vigilance, and professionalism of the relevant security authorities in the State of Kuwait for their success in dismantling a terrorist cell affiliated with Hezbollah organisation that was planning to destabilise security and stability and recruit individuals for the organisation.

12:59 AM, 18 March 2026

Iran officially announces the death of Ali Larijani

Iran has officially announced the death of Ali Larijani, a prominent political figure and former parliament speaker, according to state media reports. Larijani was widely regarded as an influential voice in Iranian politics, having held several senior roles over decades.

According to Fars News Agency, Larijani was killed along with his son, one of his aides, and several others after his daughter’s home in the Pardis area was targeted.

People

David Attenborough, ‘the voice for nature,’ turns 100

Britain’s David Attenborough, who has for decades been the world’s most authoritative voice on the natural world and whose documentaries have been watched by hundreds of millions, will on Friday celebrate his 100th birthday.

After more than 70 years of film-making, Attenborough’s instantly recognisable voice is synonymous with the story of ‌nature. He is still at the vanguard of efforts to protect the environment and has produced some of his most impactful work in recent years.

Counting Britain’s royal family, Barack Obama and pop star Billie Eilish among his admirers, Attenborough’s charisma, humour and warmth, alongside the depth of his knowledge and his flair for storytelling, have made him a broadcasting superstar.

“Your ability to communicate the beauty and vulnerability of our natural environment remains unequalled,” was how the late Queen Elizabeth summed up his achievements in 2019.

‘LONESOME GEORGE’ AND THE FRAGILE ENVIRONMENT

Attenborough’s films have communicated the wonder and also the tragedies of the natural world to viewers across the globe.

Standout scenes include his encounter with two playful young mountain gorillas who clambered onto him ⁠during his landmark 1979 series “Life on Earth”.

He also made his audience marvel at the teamwork of a pod of orcas hunting a seal by creating waves to break up ice, and his telling in 2012 of the story of “Lonesome George”, the last surviving Pinta Island tortoise, moved people to tears.

“He’s about 80 years old, and getting a bit creaky in his joints – as indeed am I,” Attenborough, then 86, said.

George’s death, two weeks after he was filmed, marked the extinction of his species.

“He’s focused the attention of the world on the fragility of our environment,” Attenborough said at the time.

While Attenborough has topped numerous national popularity polls, being named the country’s most admired man and the greatest living British cultural icon, friends say he rolls his eyes when he is labelled a “national treasure”.

“What he feels is that he’s a public servant. He feels that he had the unique opportunity to be the voice for nature, to tell everybody about the wonders of nature,” Mike Gunton, a television producer who has worked with Attenborough many times, told Reuters.

As climate change has accelerated and the threat to much of the world has become more urgent, Attenborough devoted much of ‌his 90s ⁠to raising public awareness.

His 2017 blockbuster “Blue Planet 2”, which highlighted the scourge of plastic in the ocean, achieved some of the highest viewing figures on British television before being sold to broadcasters around the world.

Albatrosses unwittingly feeding their chicks plastic fished from the ocean jolted public opinion and led the British government and major retailers to announce measures to reduce the use of plastics.

“I think every single person who’s seen anything that Sir David has done has been inspired to care about nature,” said Doug Gurr, director of the Natural History Museum in London.

SPECIAL BBC BROADCASTS AND EVENTS

In Britain, Attenborough’s centenary is being marked with a week of ⁠special broadcasts on the BBC, a live concert at the Royal Albert Hall, events at museums, nature walks and tree planting.

The broadcasts include his new series “Secret Garden”. At 99, he remains heavily involved in programme-making, say BBC colleagues, driven by his enduring curiosity and joy of storytelling.

“That’s typical David. He makes everything really enjoyable,” said Mike Salisbury, who has worked as a producer on several Attenborough documentaries.

Born on May 8, 1926, Attenborough spent ⁠his childhood collecting fossils, insects and dried seahorses.

His BBC career took off in 1954 when he presented “Zoo Quest”, which involved him travelling to far-flung parts of the world and bringing animals back to London Zoo.

By the 1970s he had risen to be programme controller at the broadcaster but decided he wanted to return to making nature documentaries.

Screened in 1979 when he was 52, “Life on Earth” ⁠made him a household name. He wrote the entire 13-hour script and travelled the world for three years to tell the story of evolution from simple organisms to humans.

Dozens of documentaries followed, including “Blue Planet,” “Frozen Planet” and “Dynasties”. As the decades passed, his sense of the need to act only increased.

“How could I look my grandchildren in the eye and say I knew what was happening to the world and did nothing?” Attenborough said.

Reuters

politics

UAE, Saudi report drone incidents as Iran war drags on

A drone strike caused a fire at a nuclear power plant in the United Arab Emirates, officials there said on Sunday, while Saudi Arabia reported intercepting three drones, as U.S. President Donald Trump warned that Iran must act “fast” after efforts to ‌end the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran appeared to have stalled.

Emirati officials said they were investigating the source of the strike and that the UAE had the full right to respond to such “terrorist attacks.” A diplomatic adviser to the UAE president said it represented a dangerous escalation, whether carried out by “the principal perpetrator” or one of its proxies.

The UAE defense ministry said two other drones had been “successfully” dealt with, and that the drones had been launched from the “western border.” It did not elaborate.

Saudi Arabia said the three drones it intercepted entered from Iraqi airspace and warned that it would take the necessary operational measures to respond to any attempt to violate its sovereignty and security.

While hostilities during the Iran conflict have largely been scaled down since a ceasefire came into effect ⁠in April, drones have been launched from Iraq towards Gulf countries, including Saudi Arabia and Kuwait.

The drone that got through the UAE’s defenses hit an electrical generator outside the inner perimeter of the Barakah Nuclear Power Plant, the Abu Dhabi Media Office said. Radiological safety levels were unaffected and there were no injuries, it said. UAE’s Federal Authority for Nuclear Regulation later confirmed that the plant remained safe, with no radioactive material released from the strike.

The International Atomic Energy Agency said emergency diesel generators were providing power to the plant’s “unit 3,” and called for “maximum military restraint” near any nuclear power plant, adding that it was following the situation closely.

During the war that began with U.S. and Israeli strikes against Iran on February 28, Iran has repeatedly targeted the UAE and other Gulf states that host U.S. military bases, hitting sites that include civilian and energy infrastructure.

Iran stepped up such attacks on the UAE earlier this month after Trump announced a naval mission to try to open the Strait of Hormuz, which Trump suspended after 48 hours.

DIPLOMATIC DEADLOCK

More than five weeks after a tenuous ceasefire in the conflict took effect, U.S. and Iranian demands remain far apart despite diplomatic efforts to end the war and reopen the strait, the world’s most important ‌shipping route for ⁠oil and gas.

Washington has called for Tehran to dismantle its nuclear program and lift its hold on the strait. Iran has demanded compensation for war damage, an end to a U.S. blockade of Iranian ports and a halt to fighting on all fronts, including in Lebanon, where Israel is battling Iran-backed Hezbollah.

Trump, whose harsh rhetoric has failed to break the stalemate, said in a post on Truth Social: “For Iran, the Clock is Ticking, and they better get moving, FAST, or there won’t be anything left of them. TIME IS OF THE ESSENCE!”

Trump is expected to meet top national security advisers on Tuesday to discuss options for military action regarding Iran, Axios reported.

Trump held talks with Chinese President ⁠Xi Jinping this week without securing an indication from China that it would help resolve the conflict and has previously threatened to resume attacks if Iran does not agree to a deal.

A senior spokesperson for the Iranian armed forces, Abolfazl Shekarchi, said on Sunday that if Trump’s threats were carried out, the U.S. would “face new, aggressive, and surprise scenarios, and sink into a self-made quagmire”.

Iranian foreign ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baqaei said the U.S. and Israel had ⁠tried to shift the blame for destabilizing energy markets following their “unprovoked military aggression against Iran”.

RIVAL BLOCKADES

The disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has caused the biggest oil supply crisis in history, pushing up prices. The U.S. has imposed its own blockade of Iranian ports, and said that as of Sunday it had redirected 81 commercial vessels and disabled four vessels to ensure compliance.

Ebrahim Azizi, who heads the Iranian ⁠parliament’s national security committee, said on Saturday that Tehran had prepared a mechanism to manage traffic through the strait along a designated route that would be unveiled soon.

Thousands of Iranians were killed in the U.S. and Israeli airstrikes. Thousands more have been killed in Lebanon in fighting between Israel and the Iran-backed group Hezbollah.

Israel and Lebanon agreed on Friday to a 45-day extension of a ceasefire there, though the truce has failed to end clashes.

Reuters

politics

What if disruption in Strait of Hormuz never ends?

For months, governments, businesses and financial markets treated the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz as a temporary crisis that would eventually ease through diplomacy or military de-escalation.

Moody’s Ratings is now warning the world may need to think differently.

In a new report, the ratings agency said the disruption to one of the world’s most important energy shipping routes is increasingly looking less like a short-term shock and more like a structural risk that could reshape global trade, energy markets and economic planning well beyond 2026.

The warning marks a shift in tone from earlier assessments that viewed the crisis mainly as a temporary supply disruption.

“We now have a single, central scenario which assumes a prolonged and significant disruption to the Strait of Hormuz through autumn,” Moody’s said.

Strait still vital to the world

The Strait of Hormuz handles around one-fifth of global crude oil and liquefied natural gas flows, making it one of the world’s most critical trade chokepoints.

But shipping through the route has fallen by more than 90 per cent from pre-conflict levels as insurers raise premiums, shipping companies avoid the area and concerns over sea mines continue to disrupt navigation.

The conflict itself may dominate headlines, but Moody’s said the larger issue is what happens if the disruption simply drags on for months.

That could mean permanently higher shipping costs, more expensive energy, slower trade flows and new supply chain strategies as companies and governments adjust to prolonged instability in the Gulf.

“Global shipping routes are being structurally rewired,” Moody’s said. The agency said countries are increasingly turning to non-Gulf suppliers, alternative pipeline routes and regional trade systems to reduce reliance on the Strait.

Higher oil prices now a norm?

Moody’s now expects Brent crude prices to remain between $90 and $110 a barrel for much of this year, significantly above earlier expectations.

For consumers, that could mean prolonged pressure on fuel prices, airfares, transport costs and inflation. “Persistently higher energy prices will lead to increases in inflation and production costs, limiting household purchasing power,” Moody’s said.

The agency warned that even if a ceasefire or political agreement is reached, a return to normal conditions would still take time because shipping backlogs, tanker repositioning and insurance systems would need months to stabilise.

The report also suggested that some changes triggered by the crisis may not reverse at all. “Some structural shifts in supply chain design, risk premiums and defense spending will probably be permanent,” Moody’s said.

Airlines, manufacturing risks

Industries that rely heavily on fuel and transport are among the sectors most exposed if elevated oil prices continue.

Moody’s identified airlines, chemicals and building materials companies as facing the “most acute pressure” because of high operating costs and limited ability to pass rising expenses onto customers.

Consumer sectors including retail, hospitality and manufacturing could also come under strain if households reduce spending in response to higher living costs.

“Airlines, building products and chemicals face the most acute pressure,” Moody’s said. At the same time, some sectors could benefit from the changing environment.

Energy producers outside the Gulf region and aerospace and defence companies are expected to gain from higher oil prices and increased geopolitical tensions.

Asia faces the biggest challenge

The report said Asian economies remain among the most vulnerable because of their dependence on Middle Eastern energy imports.

India was identified as one of the most exposed major economies because around 46 per cent of its crude oil imports come from the Middle East.

Japan and South Korea were also described as highly vulnerable despite holding large emergency reserves, while China could face pressure on industrial profitability even with state-controlled pricing and large stockpiles.

“At sustained Brent prices of $90–$110/bbl, we estimate real GDP growth reductions of 0.2–0.8 percentage point for several major economies,” Moody’s said.

Crisis world may have to adapt to

Perhaps the biggest message from the Moody’s report is that the global economy may no longer be waiting for the Strait of Hormuz crisis to end quickly.

Instead, governments, businesses and investors are increasingly preparing for the possibility that disruption, higher costs and geopolitical risk in one of the world’s most important trade routes could become part of the global economic landscape for the foreseeable future.