world

Iran War Raises Costs for India’s Economy, Finances

A few months ago, India’s economy was humming along nicely. Inflation was benign and growth was steady – the strongest among the world’s leading economies.

Now, India is increasingly counting the cost of the Iran war, which economists say will keep mounting if the deadlock between the U.S. and Iran remains unresolved and the blockage of oil supplies continues.

As the world’s third-largest oil importer and consumer, India ‌ships in about 90% of its oil, making its economy one of the most-exposed to the war and the prolonged war-related disruptions, which include the effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz through which a fifth of global oil and gas transit.

While India has announced a flurry of measures to contain the impact on the rupee and foreign exchange reserves, the latest of which were from the Reserve Bank of India on Friday, analysts say the broader drag on economic growth, inflation and government finances is set to increase so long as oil prices remain elevated.

“India is set for a series of supply shocks,” Michael Langham, emerging markets economist at Aberdeen Investments, said.

Apart from pressure on oil prices, the country also faces supply disruptions to fertiliser as a result of the Iran war, which will impact key crops like wheat when farmers are already bracing for an ⁠El Nino weather phenomenon that often portends drought.

“This will all drag on India’s growth outlook, yet the ability of the RBI to look through the energy price shock from the Strait of Hormuz will be increasingly difficult given the overlapping nature of these supply shocks,” Langham said.

At the end of last year, India’s central bank governor, Sanjay Malhotra, talked about a “rare Goldilocks” phase for the economy as it headed into 2026. Inflation levels were falling and growth remained relatively strong.

The Iran war upended that outlook.

India’s oil-and-gas import bill jumped 53% in April from March, prompting forecasts for the balance of payments (BoP) deficit — essentially money coming into the economy netted off against money going out — to balloon.

HSBC says that Friday’s series of steps may do a lot to limit the currency damage. Until Friday, it had expected India’s BoP deficit to swell to about $65 billion in 2026-27, but now expects the measures to improve the balance by about $30 billion. In 2025-26, India’s BoP deficit was at $25.2 billion or 0.6% of GDP.

India is also curbing gold imports, urging citizens to limit foreign travel and calling for more use of public transport to reduce oil demand.

“DIFFICULT POSITION”

But the macro picture is more challenging.

Benchmark international oil prices surged after the war began on Feb. 28, climbing to nearly $120 per barrel. Prices have eased, but they remain about 30% higher overall, while gas prices have risen 75% over the same period.

As a result, the ‌central bank ⁠sees inflation averaging 5.1% in the financial year to the end of March 2027, up from a 3.48% reading in April, and economic growth slipping to 6.6% from 7.7% in the previous year.

While the RBI kept rates on hold last week, interest rate swap markets are pricing in at least 25 basis points of rate hikes over the next three months and more than 75 basis points over the next year.

“India continues to face deeper structural challenges which has weighed on foreign direct investment, employment, manufacturing expansion, consumption, and nominal GDP growth,” said Sat Duhra, portfolio manager at Asia ex-Japan equity team at Janus Henderson Investors.

Duhra said the energy shock will undermine growth and pressure government finances.

“Any move to rein in public-sector capex to stabilise conditions would risk further slowing growth,” ⁠he said. “This leaves policymakers in a difficult position.”

STRONG OIL DEMAND

India delayed raising retail fuel prices as import costs mounted. Petrol and diesel are up less than 10% since then, compared with 50% or more in some other oil-importing countries in Asia.

Petrol and diesel prices are deregulated, but the government exerts significant influence as the majority shareholder of the key retail companies.

Elsewhere, high prices have reduced demand and helped balance undersupplied markets.

The government has said it will not compensate fuel retailers for losses, a strategy analysts say will ⁠come at a cost for the government, such as through reduced dividends, and so cut its financial firepower to handle the crisis.

The government’s fertiliser subsidy is likely to jump 20% in 2026/27, a government official said. Fertiliser is vital for India’s agrarian economy, which supports nearly half the population, but may be more so this year given the risk of drought owing to El Nino.

The government also cut gasoline and gasoil taxes, forgoing 140-billion-rupees in monthly revenues.

The government is targeting ⁠a fiscal deficit of 4.3% of GDP this financial year, but a Reuters poll forecast it would swell to 4.7% and some economists see it going as high as 5%.

India-based credit rating agency Crisil expects further small price increases in retail oil prices, which will have a wider impact.

“The broader effect will reverberate across the economy through higher-transport costs, pushing up both food and core inflation,” it said in a report.

Reporting by Nidhi Verma in New Delhi and Ira Dugal in Mumbai; Additional reporting by Vivek Kumar M and Bharath Rajeswaran in Bengaluru; Editing by Simon Webb and Neil Fullick

Thomson Reuters

world

Qatar vessel incident: One killed, one injured

The Ministry of Interior of Qatar has confirmed that maritime search operations were carried out after a vessel carrying two individuals failed to return at its scheduled time, prompting an immediate response from the General Directorate of Coasts and Borders Security.

According to an official statement, routine monitoring and verification procedures first flagged the delay, following which maritime patrols launched a search operation on the evening of Saturday, June 27, 2026

The Maritime Search and Rescue Team located the vessel in the early hours of Sunday, June 28, the ministry said.

One killed, one injured in incident

The ministry confirmed that a Qatari citizen was killed after sustaining injuries from shrapnel linked to military activity in the area.

An Arab resident on board was also injured and has been hospitalised in stable condition.

Condolences and ongoing investigation

The Ministry of Interior extended its condolences to the family of the deceased, praying for mercy upon him, and wished a swift recovery for the injured individual.

It added that investigations are ongoing in accordance with established legal procedures.

world

Philippines Leads Global Solar Boom

People in the Philippines are flocking to install solar power on rooftops and escape the burden of soaring electricity prices, making it the world’s biggest spender on solar panels since ‌the war in Iran started.

Top power distributor Meralco has raised prices by 10% since the Middle East conflict began in late February. Now, a median household spends around 12% of monthly income on electricity, assuming it consumes 200 kilowatt-hours — approximately the monthly average for three people.

The Philippines is one of the few countries in Southeast Asia with barely any power subsidies, and its residential power prices are the highest in the region. Only Singapore comes close, but its citizens’ average purchasing power is nearly 13 times higher.

Adrian Sabatera, a 39-year-old software engineer, thought about getting solar for years but found it too ⁠costly. That changed as costs came down and electricity prices kept rising.

“I wouldn’t be shocked if a third of the middle-class population eventually finds their way to this setup,” Sabatera said after recently pulling the trigger on a 570,000 peso ($9,300) installation at the Manila house he shares with three others.

The rooftop solar rush has resulted in $407 million in panel imports in the three months through May, a 145% increase from a year earlier, according to trade data from China, which accounts for most global supply.

Even when Chinese panel shipments fell 13% in May after a tax rebate removal, exports to the Philippines rose by almost a third.

On paper, the Netherlands remains a larger market for panels, but experts say that’s because it is a transshipment hub.

SURGE IN INQUIRIES

Philergy German Solar, a Manila-based installer, received more than 2-1/2 times the number of customer enquiries in the first five months of this year compared to last year. At one point it ‌fielded 3,000 ⁠inquiries a day, according to managing partner Jochen Staudter.

Customers are deciding to buy “much faster than before,” Staudter said. “Demand will continue to be driven by high electricity prices.”

In two years, distributed solar capacity could nearly triple to 3,500 megawatts (MW), matching the current size of the Philippines’ utility-scale solar fleet, as loan payback times shrink to 3.1 years from 4 years, said Alnie Demoral, analyst at energy think tank Ember.

Solar accounts for under 4% of national power consumption, government data shows.

SUPPLY CHALLENGES

A weakening currency has compounded the increase ⁠in power prices because the Philippines relies on imported coal and gas to generate power. That has pushed inflation to multi-year highs and slowed growth.

Manila entrepreneur Jason Porciuncula installed a 12-kilowatt system with battery storage in January. As prices hit record highs in May, his monthly bill dropped to a fifth of last summer’s 21,000 pesos.

But it’s not all smooth ⁠sailing. Installations are lagging behind demand due to component hoarding, volatile equipment costs and inadequate quality checks, said Brenda Valerio, Philippines director at New Energy Nexus.

The government provides loans for solar of up to 500,000 pesos at 5% interest, below market rates. But it excludes private-sector workers.

Another deterrent: high upfront costs, ⁠usually above average annual household incomes of 353,200 pesos.

“The opportunity is real, but the upfront cost is often too high for a household or business, no matter how quick the payback time is,” Ember’s Demoral said.

($1 = 61.2870 Philippine pesos)

Reuters

world

4-Year Stay Limit: What It Means for International Students

A sweeping change to US immigration rules could soon reshape how international students plan their education in the country, with a proposed policy introducing a fixed four-year limit on student stays.

The White House has cleared a Department of Homeland Security (DHS) regulation that would replace the long-standing “Duration of Status” (D/S) system with a time-bound admission model for foreign students and exchange visitors.

According to Bloomberg reports, under the proposed changes, most international students would be permitted to stay in the US for up to four years. After this period, those continuing their studies would be required to obtain formal approval to extend their stay.

Currently, students can stay for the full length of their academic programme as long as they maintain valid status, without a fixed expiry date.

If implemented, the change could affect F-1 student visa holders, J-1 exchange visitors and other categories, requiring more frequent interaction with US immigration authorities.

The rule has cleared review by the White House Office of Management and Budget and is expected to move toward publication in the Federal Register, with implementation likely within 30 to 60 days of final notification.

What is the proposed change?

Under current plans reported by Bloomberg, international student stays could be capped at around four years, regardless of how long their academic programme runs.

The rule would apply to multiple visa categories, including:

F-1 student visas
J-1 exchange visitor visas
Other related study-based visa categories

If implemented, students whose programmes extend beyond the limit would need to apply for formal extensions through US immigration authorities.

The regulation has already cleared review by the White House Office of Management and Budget (OMB) and is expected to be published in the Federal Register, with an implementation window of 30 to 60 days after publication.

How the current ‘Duration of Status’ system works

At present, international students in the US are admitted under the Duration of Status (D/S) framework.

This allows students to stay in the country for as long as they:

Remain enrolled full-time
Maintain valid student status
Comply with visa conditions

There is no fixed end date attached to their stay.

This system allows flexibility to:

Extend academic programmes
Switch universities or courses
Progress from undergraduate to postgraduate studies
Complete Optional Practical Training (OPT) and STEM OPT

What would change under the new rule?

The proposed system would replace this flexible model with a fixed admission period, likely around four years for most students.

Key implications include:

Students would no longer have automatic stay based on enrolment
Extensions would require approval from USCIS
Additional documentation and biometric checks may be required
Processing delays could affect academic timelines
Overstaying without approval could lead to legal consequences

In effect, continued study in the US would depend on periodic immigration approvals rather than academic enrolment alone.

Why the US government is proposing the change

The Department of Homeland Security argues that the current system makes it harder to track compliance and identify visa overstays.

A fixed end-date model, officials say, would:

Improve monitoring of foreign students
Strengthen immigration enforcement
Standardise visa oversight across categories

Why Indian students could be most affected

India is the largest source of international students in the United States.

According to the Open Doors 2024 report, more than 331,000 Indian students were enrolled in US institutions in the 2023–24 academic year — nearly 30% of all international students.

Many of these students are in programmes that exceed four years, including:

PhD and doctoral research programmes
Long-duration master’s degrees
Technical and professional courses

Under the proposed system, these students may face:

More extension applications
Increased immigration scrutiny
Greater uncertainty around long-term academic planning

Key concerns raised by experts and institutions

Organisations such as the Association of American Universities (AAU), American Council on Education (ACE) and NAFSA have warned that fixed stay limits could:

Increase administrative burden
Create uncertainty for research-based programmes
Make it harder to maintain legal status in longer academic tracks

They also caution that changes could affect transitions into work pathways such as OPT.

What happens if a visa stay expires?

A major concern under the proposed framework is enforcement.

If a student’s authorised stay expires:

They may begin accruing unlawful presence immediately
Delays in extension processing could create legal risks
Immigration penalties could affect future US travel eligibility

According to immigration firm Fragomen, this could significantly raise the stakes for administrative delays or paperwork errors.

Impact on OPT and post-study work pathways

The effect on Optional Practical Training (OPT) is still unclear.

However, experts warn that moving away from the D/S system could:

Complicate transitions from study to employment
Add procedural steps before work authorisation
Increase pressure on visa timelines for STEM OPT participants

OPT remains a key pathway for international graduates seeking US work experience.

What about the grace period?

Earlier versions of the proposal suggested reducing the post-study grace period for F-1 students from 60 days to 30 days.

This period is currently used to:

Apply for OPT
Transfer universities
Change visa status
Prepare for departure

Any reduction would tighten post-graduation timelines significantly.

When could the rule take effect?

The rule is not yet in force.

OMB review has been completed
Final publication in the Federal Register is pending
Implementation could begin 30–60 days after publication

Experts suggest rollout may occur later in 2026, though timelines remain uncertain.

What should students do now?

There is no immediate change for current or prospective students.

At this stage, students should:

Continue under existing visa rules
Monitor updates from DHS and USCIS
Stay in touch with university international offices

What happens next

The regulation is not yet in force. It still requires formal publication before becoming law.

Once published, the government is expected to announce an implementation timeline, which experts say could begin later in 2026.

Until then, the current Duration of Status system remains unchanged, allowing students to stay in the US for the full length of their academic programme as long as they comply with visa conditions.

Agencies