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Dubai gold dips on Hormuz jitters

 Gold prices in Dubai edged lower on Monday morning, tracking a cautious global market mood shaped by rising geopolitical tensions and renewed inflation concerns.

At 9:19am, 24-karat gold was priced at Dh569 per gram, down from Dh572.25 on Sunday. The 22-karat variant fell to Dh526.75 from Dh529.75 a day earlier, reflecting a steady pullback after last week’s gains.

The latest move comes as investors reassess risk across markets following developments around the Strait of Hormuz, with global cues feeding directly into local bullion pricing. (Check latest UAE gold prices here, alongside prices in Saudi ArabiaOmanQatarBahrainKuwait, and India.)

April trend shows uneven recovery

Price action through April has been far from linear, with gold moving in tight ranges before slipping in recent sessions.

The month opened with 24K gold at Dh573 per gram on April 1, before easing into the Dh563 to Dh566 range over the next few days. A brief recovery saw prices climb to Dh577.25 by April 9, marking the highest level this month, before reversing direction again. Since then, prices have softened, with the current Dh569 level reflecting a gradual cooling from those peaks.

A similar pattern has played out in 22K gold, which moved from Dh530.75 at the start of the month to a high of Dh534.50, before easing back below Dh527 in recent sessions.

This pattern points to a market attempting to stabilise, but still reacting sharply to global triggers.

Geopolitics drives cautious tone

Global markets began the week in a defensive posture after the US signalled plans to blockade the Strait of Hormuz, a key artery for global energy supplies.

Michael Brown, Senior Research Strategist at Pepperstone, said markets are “trading in rather ‘textbook’ risk-off fashion, as participants reach once more for the ‘conflict escalation’ playbook.”

Energy markets have reacted immediately, with crude prices pushing back above $100 a barrel, adding to inflation pressures that are already building across major economies.

Inflation and rates cap upside

Recent US data showed inflation rising at its fastest monthly pace in nearly four years, driven largely by energy costs. That has reinforced expectations that central banks may hold rates higher for longer.

Higher borrowing costs tend to weigh on gold, which does not offer yield, making it less attractive relative to interest-bearing assets.

Brown noted that policymakers are likely to remain cautious, with limited evidence so far of broader inflation spillovers. “The potential for second-round effects remains limited,” he said, pointing to relatively stable core inflation.

At the same time, the dollar has strengthened, adding another layer of pressure on bullion prices globally and feeding into local rate movements in Dubai.

Liquidity and positioning in focus

Gold’s recent moves also reflect broader positioning across markets, where investors have been adjusting exposure amid cross-asset volatility.

Bullion had already seen a sharp correction since late February, falling close to 11% at one stage as investors sold holdings to cover losses elsewhere. While some recovery followed, the current environment suggests that liquidity conditions continue to play a key role in short-term price direction.

GN

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Business

How is food reaching you despite regional tensions?

Keeping supermarket shelves stocked has become a logistics exercise playing out across ports, highways and international corridors, with operators reworking supply chains to ensure food and essential goods continue to reach the UAE without disruption.

At the centre of that effort is DP World, which has been prioritising critical cargo from the outset, working closely with government entities, traders and manufacturers to keep imports moving even as traditional shipping patterns face pressure.

In an exclusive interview with Gulf News, Ahmad Yousef Al Hassan, CEO and Managing Director of DP World GCC, said the approach has been structured around a clear hierarchy of needs, starting with food, pharma and agricultural inputs before moving to industrial supply chains that keep local production running.

“We work very closely with the government, especially a lot of the ministries, on the essential goods for the UAE. They fall into food and beverages, along with categories like milk, rice, animal feed and pharma,” he said.

Jebel Ali alone handled about 750,000 TEUs of essential goods last year, with roughly two-thirds tied to food and beverage shipments, providing a baseline for how much cargo needs to be protected during periods of disruption.

Mapping supply, not stockpiling

Instead of stockpiling, the focus has been on mapping demand and ensuring continuity of supply. Traders and manufacturers are being asked to identify their most critical imports, allowing DP World to prioritise cargo and route it through the fastest available channels.

“There’s enough essential goods, there’s no panic,” Al Hassan said, adding that the emphasis remains on keeping trade moving rather than building excess inventory.

That approach extends to sourcing as well. Where traditional suppliers face delays, alternative markets in India and Pakistan are being lined up, with feeder vessels used to move goods quickly into UAE ports. Other feeder operators have also been encouraged to follow the same prioritisation model to ease congestion and speed up turnaround times.

Cold chain gets added support

The fresh food supply has required additional intervention, particularly along longer inland routes. DP World has expanded refrigerated container capacity and introduced stopover solutions to maintain temperature control.

For instance, a dedicated inland facility has been introduced that allows refrigerated containers to plug in and stabilise before continuing their journey, reducing the risk of spoilage during extended transit.

“We have this reefer pit stop that will help out as well,” Al Hassan said, pointing to a broader push to reassure traders that temperature-sensitive cargo can be handled reliably.

Additional generator units have also been deployed to power refrigerated containers on trucks, giving logistics teams more flexibility across different corridors.

Global network steps in

The company’s international footprint is playing a central role in rerouting cargo flows. Ports in India and Pakistan are being used as staging points for transshipment, helping to keep eastern Gulf ports from becoming congested. For F&B alone, India and Pakistan together account for nearly 30% of the imports through Jebel Ali.

DP World is also using its integrated shipping and logistics solutions to design alternative routes and keep critical cargo moving efficiently across markets.

“This global network is what really pushes people to call us right away,” Al Hassan said, describing how customers are seeking real-time solutions to move construction materials, raw materials and food-related agricultural products.

Corridors expand across the region

Closer to home, multiple corridors are being activated to keep trade flowing. Routes through Fujairah and Khorfakkan are already operational, while discussions continue with Sohar Port in Oman to expand capacity and streamline processes.

Further north, DP World’s terminal in Jeddah is being used to absorb additional cargo, supported by ongoing talks between UAE and Saudi authorities to establish a bonded corridor that would allow smoother movement of goods between the two markets.

Each additional route adds flexibility for traders, reducing reliance on any single port or shipping lane.

Managing congestion to control costs

Even with supply holding steady, shipping and logistics costs have come under broader market pressure as diesel prices, insurance premiums, freight rates and other cost drivers evolve.

Al Hassan said that DP World’s focus is on keeping trade flowing efficiently and reducing congestion.

Faster clearance, better routing and coordinated planning help to ease pressures across the wider supply chain and limit the knock-on effect on end consumers.

Authorities are also closely monitoring prices, drawing on mechanisms developed during previous disruptions to maintain oversight across key categories.

Keeping the system balanced

The challenge is not only about moving food. Industrial supply chains must also remain active, from raw materials for manufacturing to equipment needed for ongoing projects.

Balancing these competing demands has required constant coordination among regulators, port operators, and private-sector players, ensuring that essential goods move first while maintaining sufficient capacity for broader trade.

The system has held so far, supported by a combination of planning, infrastructure and rapid decision-making.

That, according to Al Hassan, is what keeps shelves stocked without tipping into panic or shortage, even in a strained operating environment.

GN

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Business

Wall Street firm sends analyst to Hormuz, shares findings

As the world’s oil traders parsed satellite images and official statements for clues on the fate of the Strait of Hormuz, one research firm seems to have taken a different approach: It says it sent an analyst directly into the conflict zone.

Citrini Research, which issued a market-shaking bearish call on artificial intelligence earlier this year, said it dispatched an analyst to Oman’s Musandam Peninsula, where the person traveled by boat to observe shipping activity firsthand amid escalating tensions between Iran and the U.S. What the analyst claims to have found challenges the dominant narrative gripping global markets that the critical oil artery is effectively shut.

Instead, the analyst, whom the firm did not name due to the sensitivity of the activity, found that vessels are still moving through the strait, with traffic picking up in recent days to roughly 15 ships per day, according to the firm’s report posted on Substack. While far below normal levels, the flow suggests the disruption is partial and evolving rather than absolute.

“Tankers passing through four or five a day, completely dark on AIS. The volume, they said, is higher than what the data suggests, and it’s been accelerating in the past couple days through the Qeshm channel,” Citrini’s post said.

AIS is a ship-tracking system that broadcasts a vessel’s location, speed, identity and route. Citrini asserts that the actual shipping volume is higher than reported data as many ships turn off their transponders and are not visible on official tracking systems.

Citrini didn’t immediately respond to CNBC’s request for comment.

Based on the Substack post, the analyst’s interviews with fishermen, smugglers and regional officials point to a system in which Iran is selectively allowing ships to pass. Tankers are required to secure approval before transiting waters near Iranian territory, creating what the firm described as a “functional checkpoint” rather than a blockade, Citrini said in its post.

“This should drive home that what we’ve described as our view of the conflict is nuanced — it doesn’t fit neatly into ‘strait open crude down’ or ‘strait closed crude parabolic,’” the firm said.

To be sure, the findings are based on a single field trip and anecdotal accounts that are difficult to independently verify, particularly given limited transparency in the region.

The firm said it expects a more prolonged disruption that embeds a lasting risk premium into oil markets. That view underpins a preference for longer-dated crude exposure, with the firm favoring December 2026 WTI contracts over the front month.

“We think the disruption is longer and the new normal involves a permanent risk premium, but that we’ll likely see as high as 50% of pre-conflict traffic within the next 4-6 weeks,” Citrini said.

CNBC

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Business

Buffett may halt Gates donations over Epstein ties

Revelations in the Jeffrey Epstein files about the notorious sex offender’s connections to Bill Gates have severely strained, and perhaps ended, the Microsoft co-founder’s famous friendship with Warren Buffett.

They could also prompt Buffett to cut off his annual multi-billion-dollar donations to the Gates Foundation.

In a one-hour-plus sit-down interview (full audio and transcript appear below) that aired on Tuesday’s “Squawk Box,” Buffett told Becky Quick he has not talked to Gates “at all since the whole thing was unveiled.”

Asked if he is still “good friends” with Gates, Buffett replied they’d had “great times together,” but “until it gets cleared up … I just don’t think it makes sense to do a lot of talking.”

Noting that his “memory is no good anymore,” Buffett added, “I don’t want to be under oath, in terms of trying to remember everything over 30 years, or 20 years, the foundation’s done, or anything like that.”

“I didn’t have anything to do with it, except I put money in it.”

In response to Quick’s question on whether he will continue to give money to the Gates Foundation, Buffett said, “I’ll wait and see what unfolds … I don’t have to make that decision today. And I haven’t made it today.” 

“I’ve learned things I didn’t know about something for all these years.”

Buffett said he doesn’t think “Bill had anything to do with girls or the island or anything like that,” but he still wants to learn more as revelations continue.

Buffett is relieved he “never came near” Epstein, calling him a “sensational conman” who preyed on others’ weaknesses, although that “doesn’t excuse the people on the other end.”

In 2006, Buffett wrote to Bill and Melinda Gates that he was “irrevocably committing” to make annual gifts of Berkshire shares to their foundation “throughout my lifetime,” as long as at least one of them was actively involved, the gifts did not become subject to a tax, and the foundation actively spent the contributions on its philanthropic activities.

The letter also said Buffett’s will would “provide for a continuation of this commitment … after my death.”

Two years ago, however, Buffett confirmed to the Wall Street Journal the Gates Foundation “has no money coming after my death.”

The previous November, he had announced that his three children would be jointly responsible for giving away almost all his wealth after he dies.

Buffett: I sold Apple shares ‘too soon’

In the interview, Buffett conceded he started reducing Berkshire’s massive Apple stake “too soon,” but added with a laugh, “I bought it even sooner. So, it worked out.”

As of the end of December, the position had been cut by 75% since sales began in the fourth quarter of 2023.

Over that time, Apple’s stock price has increased by almost 50%.

Even after the selling, however, Apple remains Berkshire’s largest equity position with a market value of $58.3 billion, which is roughly 18% of the portfolio.

If Berkshire had kept the 915.6 million shares it held as of Sept. 30, 2023, the stake would be worth more than $234 billion.

In that hypothetical, it would be almost 48% of the portfolio.

Buffett said, “I’m very happy to have it be our largest holding. I was not happy to have it be as large as almost everything else combined.”

“It’s not impossible that Apple would get to a price [where] we would buy a lot of it,” he added. “But not in this market. I mean, it just isn’t going to happen in this market.”

Buffett still has a hand in Berkshire’s investing decisions

Buffett said that even though he stepped down as CEO at the end of last year, he still comes into Berkshire’s offices every day as chairman and is involved in some investing decisions.

But, he added, “I won’t make any that [new CEO] Greg [Abel] thinks are wrong.”

Buffett said he had made “one tiny purchase,” but he’s not finding many potential buys despite the stock market’s recent declines, which he said aren’t substantial and “nothing to make you excited.”

Fed should have a ‘zero’ inflation target

Buffett says he “wouldn’t want the responsibility” of running the Federal Reserve, but he wishes the central bank “had a zero inflation target” instead of its current goal of a 2% annual increase.

“Once you start saying you’re going to tolerate 2%, that compounds pretty dramatically over time… I don’t like that particular goal.”

In the government’s most recent report, the February consumer price index was up 2.4% versus the same month last year.

Buffett: Iranian atomic bomb would raise risk of nuclear catastrophe

For a long time, Buffett has been concerned about nuclear proliferation, calling it “the ultimate problem of mankind” in 2006.

While he doesn’t know how to fix the problem, he does know that “it’ll be more difficult if Iran has the bomb than [if] they don’t.”

Buffett, however, wouldn’t say whether he thinks the U.S. should try to seize Iran’s enriched uranium.

Buffett revives charity auction with NBA star, may get hoops lesson

Warren Buffett is teaming up with the Golden State Warriors’ Stephen Curry and his wife, lifestyle entrepreneur Ayesha Curry, for a charity auction. 

The winning bidder for “A Seat at the Table,” and up to seven guests, will share a June 24 lunch in Omaha with the trio.

The eBay auction starts May 7 at 7:30 p.m. PT and ends exactly one week later.

Proceeds will be split between San Francisco’s Glide Foundation and the Currys’ Eat. Learn. Play. Foundation that is “working to transform the school experience for a generation of Oakland students.”

In his CNBC interview, Buffett revealed that he will personally make matching donations to the two groups.

“Steph is the hero of millions and millions of people. So, I really think it’ll work.”

AP reports that in a video call with reporters this week as he prepared to resume playing after missing more than two dozen games due to a knee injury, Curry, 38, said Buffett, 95, wants a lesson on how to shoot a basketball.

“If not a permanent basketball hoop, I’m pretty sure there’s going to be a mobile one out there so I can make good on my promise to teach him some form.

“We’ll see how he can do. I haven’t seen any video of a Warren Buffett jump shot, but we’ll see.”

Buffett’s lunch auctions raised more than $53 million for Glide over two decades. In 2022, what was then called the “grand finale” of the series was won by an anonymous bidder for $19 million.

In this week’s interview, Buffett said he had “run out of gas” but revived his participation in the auction, at least for this year, because it had “fizzled” without him and “it would have killed me to have it just die off.”

Berkshire shares start week with a win, ending 8-day losing streak

Shares of Berkshire Hathaway ended Monday with a 1.3% gain, breaking a string of eight consecutive daily losses that began on March 18.

It was their longest losing streak in more than seven years.

Both the Class A and Class B shares also advanced on Tuesday and fell Wednesday.

On Thursday, BRKA managed a very small gain, while BRKB dropped slightly.

The U.S. stock market was closed for Good Friday.

The eight-day losing streak pushed the A shares down 4.7% and the B shares fell 4.9%.

They erased a bit more than a third of those losses this week.  

The full Buffett interview

The entire 70-minute interview with Buffett is available in video form for CNBC Pro subscribers.

There is also audio of the entire conversation in this episode of “Squawk Pod.”

CNBC

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