politics

Could Hormuz make Iran rich? Military says ‘Yes’

India is hosting Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi in Delhi for the BRIC Foreign Ministers’ Meeting (May 14-15). On Thursday, Araghchi urged countries to unite against US “bullying”.

On the same day, Iran’s military attacked and sank an Indian-flagged vessel in the waters off Oman.

The disconnect between Tehran’s words and actions is awkward at best, and ridiculous at worst: India deplored the move, calling it unacceptable.

The attack was no accident: It’s part-strategy and part-disconnect.

So while the country’s diplomats publicly call for peace and seek international sympathy, hardliners invoke control of Hormuz as both an economic lifeline and a point of “leverage”.

The regime reckons that this shift will yield swift economic and political gains

Economic, political gains

It won’t, say experts.

The regime’s military spokesman said that Tehran’s control over Hormuz could generate “significant” economic revenue and strengthen the country’s international position.

Tighter control or disruption of maritime traffic there could also amplify Tehran’s influence on the world stage.

The Indian-flagged dhow (mechanised wooden sailing vessel) named Haji Ali was attacked and sank off the coast of Oman near the Strait of Hormuz, on May 14, 2026, based on reports. All 14 crew members were rescued by the Omani Coast Guard.

This ignores one reality: the “counter-blockade” imposed by the US military since April 13, 2026.

Before February 28, 2026, the oil market was operating with a Brent crude price of just $61-$63/barrel (January 2026 average).

The war changed the calculus: while other Gulf producers saw exports drop significantly, Iran’s exports reportedly increased from 1.1 million to 1.5 million barrels at >$100/barrel.

As of mid-May 2026, however, Iran’s oil sector faces severe pressure from the US blockade. Reports suggest a potential loss of over $5 billion in revenue.

Despite the blockade causing export bottlenecks and shipping risks, Iran claims its output stayed at around 1.8 to 2 million barrels per day through increased domestic refining and storage.

Trump, however, said the US blockade has “allowed no money” for the regime for more than a month now.

Iran’s leverage

In throttling exports or escalating risk around the strait, the Iranian regime seeks to impose economic leverage, driving up global energy prices and extracting concessions in sanctions and diplomatic talks.

By disrupting a vital international artery, it forces global attention, compels mediators to involve negotiations on terms it prefers.

It also forms an asymmetric warfare narrative.

Coastal batteries, fast-attack craft, mines, and small-boat tactics allow Iran to impose disproportionate costs while limiting direct, high‑intensity combat.

Four weeks ago, CENTCOM began implementing the blockade against ships entering and exiting Iran’s ports. As of today, American forces have redirected 67 commercial vessels, allowed 15 supporting humanitarian aid to pass, and disabled 4 to ensure compliance.

International backlash

However, repeated direct attacks on commercial shipping or efforts to block one of the world’s busiest energy corridors risk unifying global responses.

These include diplomatic pressure, sanctions and condemnation, as per Chatham House, a London-based think-tank.

Analyses from international law and policy institutions note that attempts to impose unilateral controls over passage could violate established maritime norms and draw countries into coordinated defence initiatives.

“The legal and diplomatic fallout of such actions also raises the diplomatic cost of escalation,” according to the Royal Institute of International Affairs, a world-leading independent policy institute.

Policy analysts stress that reopening commerce often requires not only political agreements but tangible security assurances to insurers, shipping consortia and trading partners — a process that can be protracted and contentious.

The Council for Foreign Relations (CFR) states that as the military posture shifts, it anticipates escalated naval patrols, expanded coalition-building to defend shipping lanes and contingency planning for rapid escort or interdiction missions.

This reflects a broader recognition among energy and security experts that safeguarding critical chokepoints may require sustained international military and diplomatic cooperation, not just short-term tactical responses.

Chokepoint

The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow chokepoint connecting the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman; a sizable share of global crude oil and liquefied natural gas transits the waterway, making it central to worldwide energy markets.
Historically, Iran has paired long-range missiles, drones and proxy networks to project power across the region; recent losses in those capabilities have reportedly pushed Iranian planners to emphasize maritime and coastal measures that exploit Hormuz’s geography.
Control or effective harassment of tanker traffic can produce near‑immediate ripple effects on oil prices and shipping insurance costs, creating swift economic pain for rivals without requiring large-scale conventional operations.

NEW: There is an emergent consensus in Tehran that the Strait of Hormuz is an increasingly potent lever of power and must be central to Iranian strategy moving forward. Iranian actions and rhetoric demonstrate the disruptive ways that Iran hopes to use this lever in the future.… pic.twitter.com/t4VxjqmREs

— Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar) May 13, 2026

Strategic shift

Amid the varying tactics and intensity of diplomatic and military action short of a full-scale war, there are numerous stakes involved.

The US counter-blockade on Iran already amounts to a logistics squeeze: Interdicting inbound empty tankers or delaying port operations creates bottlenecks — onshore storage fills, floating storage is costly and limited, and production may need to be curtailed if offtake is blocked.

Incidents involving the sinking of commercial ships will surely invite protests, spike oil prices and drive a potential escalation.

Tensions between Tehran, the US and Gulf partners already run high. It is bound to complicate regional diplomacy, especially given broader tensions.

It’s been reported that despite the security situation, multiple India-bound LPG tankers continued crossing the Strait of Hormuz over the past 24 hours.

The attack on an Indian-flagged vessel could prompt formal protests; conversely, it risks reciprocal measures.

politics

US-Iran talks end in Doha, focus on Hormuz

Iran and the United States concluded a round of indirect talks on Wednesday with no sign they had made headway toward a lasting peace, focusing instead on ‌issues that they said had been resolved when an interim agreement was announced two weeks ago.

Sources familiar with the discussions said negotiators for the two countries spent two days in Doha discussing maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz and unfreezing Iran’s funds, two critical issues under the initial agreement.

The next meeting will take place after funeral processions for Iran’s late Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who is due to be buried on July 9, Qatar’s Foreign Ministry said.

The Doha discussions produced “positive progress” on issues related to the memorandum that halted the war in June and were “building on the outcomes” of ⁠a summit in Switzerland, the ministry spokesperson said in a post on X.

In Washington, U.S. President Donald Trump said the two sides were making progress on possible limits to Iran’s nuclear program — the main reason he launched the war along with Israel in February. “The denuclearization of Iran is moving along well,” he told reporters. “They’ve had very good meetings, and we’ll see.”

But the sources said the nuclear program did not come up in the talks, which were technical in nature.

U.S. Vice President JD Vance said that matter would be addressed later. “Obviously, we’re worried about the nuclear issue, we’re going to start talking about that,” he told reporters.

American and Iranian negotiators held separate meetings with Qatari and Pakistani mediators, Qatar’s foreign ministry said.

Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner and top U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff, dispatched to the region for what the White House had billed as “high-level” talks, did not attend the sessions, according to a source who spoke on condition of anonymity.

The leader of Iran’s delegation, Deputy ‌Foreign Minister ⁠Kazem Gharibabadi, said the talks concluded. Neither side said whether they had managed to bridge any of their differences.

WHO CONTROLS THE STRAIT?

The initial deal calls for Iran and the United States to allow shipping to resume through the Strait of Hormuz, which handled one-fifth of global oil and liquid natural gas trade before the war. Though traffic has partially resumed, the status of the strategic waterway remains unclear and the two countries exchanged strikes last weekend following an Iranian attack on a cargo ship.

Iran is determined to win international ⁠recognition of its control over the strait even if it has to do so by force, two senior Iranian sources said, and has repeatedly said it will assess tolls on shipping starting in mid-August, after a toll-free period specified by the initial agreement expires.

Trump’s comments on Wednesday played down the possibility of a return to all-out war with Iran. “I think they’ve ⁠come a long way,” he said.

Oil prices fell to their lowest level in four months following Trump’s remarks, and analysts cut their price forecasts for the first time since the war began.

Iran’s state media said on Wednesday that a foreign container ship had run aground in shallow waters outside the shipping route designated by ⁠Iranian authorities.

“Hormuz continues to reopen but it’s patchy, unpredictable, and not fully transparent,” said Vandana Hari, founder of oil market analysis provider Vanda Insights.

Several European countries have offered to help clear mines from the Strait, but Germany’s defense minister Boris Pistorius said he did not expect his country to participate, citing Iran’s unwillingness to cooperate with other countries.

politics

Trump says Iran talks begin as Tehran denies meeting

Mixed signals over US-Iran diplomacy kept the Middle East on edge after President Donald Trump announced talks in Qatar would begin on Tuesday, only for Tehran to deny any negotiations were planned. The uncertainty came as commercial shipping slowly resumed through the Strait of Hormuz, though traffic remained below normal levels. Meanwhile, Iran confirmed the death of a senior IRGC Navy official in a vehicle accident as efforts continued to preserve the fragile US-Iran ceasefire agreement. Follow our live updates:

06:33 AM, 30 June 2026

Trump says Iran meeting to take place in Qatar

US President Donald Trump said Iran has requested a meeting that will be held Tuesday in Qatar, despite Tehran denying any direct negotiations were planned with Washington on the deal aimed at ending the Middle East war.

The announcement came after Iran held its first talks with Oman on managing the Strait of Hormuz since the US-Iran deal was signed, and as Washington and Tehran agreed to halt their attacks, which had strained the agreement.

“IRAN HAS REQUESTED A MEETING. IT WILL TAKE PLACE TOMORROW IN DOHA!” Trump posted Monday on his Truth Social platform, without specifying the participants.

05:26 AM, 30 June 2026

IRGC Navy spokesperson Mohammad Akbarzadeh dies in reported ‘car rollover’

Mohammad Akbarzadeh, political deputy (and spokesperson) of the IRGC Navy, died in reported vehicle rollover accident in Iran’s Kerman province.

Iranian state-affiliated media, including Fars News Agency (IRGC-linked), reported that Akbarzadeh, political deputy (and spokesperson) of the IRGC Navy, died after his vehicle overturned on a road in Kerman province (southeastern Iran, on the route from Yazd).

Emergency responders transported him to a medical center, where he succumbed to his injuries.

Authorities have launched an investigation into the cause and circumstances.

This is corroborated by multiple outlets carrying the Iranian reporting, including Iran International, RIA Novosti/Sputnik affiliates, and social media summaries from observers.

03:45 AM, 30 June 2026

Lebanon state media says Israeli strike hits south

Lebanese state media on Monday said an Israeli strike hit the country’s south, despite a framework accord signed by the two countries last week aimed at securing a peace deal.

“Israeli warplanes carried out an airstrike targeting the area between the southern Lebanese towns of Qantara and Deir Seryan,” the state-run National News Agency said.

03:07 AM, 30 June 2026

Iran says ‘expert delegation’ heading to Qatar this week

Iran said a delegation of experts would travel to Doha this week for discussions on the implementation of the memorandum of understanding signed with the United States earlier this month.

“An expert delegation from the Islamic Republic of Iran will travel to Doha later this week” to discuss the implementation of clauses of the memorandum, foreign ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei said.

“We have not yet entered the stage of negotiating a final agreement,” he said, noting that “over the coming days, we will not have any negotiation meetings with the US side at any level”.

01:14 AM, 30 June 2026

Conflicting US-Iran signals keep Mideast on edge

Mixed signals over planned US-Iran negotiations injected fresh uncertainty into Middle East diplomacy, as Tehran denied that any talks were scheduled despite President Donald Trump’s announcement that American and Iranian officials would meet in Qatar this week.

Iran’s Foreign Ministry said no negotiations with the US were planned “at any level” in the coming days, contradicting Trump’s statement that talks would begin Tuesday. The conflicting messages have raised questions about the status of diplomatic efforts following weeks of heightened tensions in the region.

The uncertainty comes as negotiators seek to build on a fragile US-Iran memorandum of understanding intended to reduce hostilities and pave the way for a broader agreement addressing Iran’s nuclear program, regional security and sanctions relief.

01:02 AM, 30 June 2026

Shipping through Hormuz inches higher: tracking data

More than two dozen commercial vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz over the past 24 hours, according to MarineTraffic data, as global shipping companies cautiously resumed operations ahead of expected US-Iran peace talks that President Donald Trump said are scheduled to begin Tuesday.

The vessel count remains well below pre-conflict levels, underscoring continued concerns over security in one of the world’s most strategically important maritime chokepoints.

MarineTraffic data showed that 25 commercial ships passed through the strait during the latest 24-hour period. The outbound traffic from the Persian Gulf included six oil tankers and eight cargo vessels, while five tankers and six cargo ships entered the Gulf.

12:53 AM, 30 June 2026

Iran says implementation of MoU underway, final talks not yet started

Iran’s Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Esmail Baghaei has briefed reporters on developments related to the implementation of a memorandum of understanding (MoU), outlining progress on key provisions, according to official remarks.

He said the United States has issued the necessary authorisations under Article 10 of the MoU, related to oil sales, and that Iran is monitoring the implementation process.

Baghaei added that steps are also underway regarding the release of Iran’s frozen assets.

However, he clarified that negotiations on a final agreement have not yet begun.

He further said any visit by US representatives to Qatar is unrelated to the Iranian delegation’s trip, which is focused solely on follow-up implementation issues, including Article 11 of the MoU.

12:39 AM, 30 June 2026

Israel says Trump linked Iran and Lebanon conflicts during talks

US President Donald Trump pushed to link the wars in Lebanon and Iran during ceasefire discussions, despite Israel’s preference to treat them as separate conflicts, Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz said, according to a CNN report.

Katz said he regretted the linkage but noted it “served an American interest,” adding that Washington wanted to advance negotiations with Iran and saw the Lebanon front as an obstacle.

He also said Israel had no territorial ambitions in Lebanon but remains in place with US backing until Hezbollah is fully disarmed.

According to Katz, Israel has destroyed large parts of border villages and said displaced residents from southern Lebanon will not be allowed to return.

He also reiterated that Israel would strike Beirut’s Dahiyeh district if Hezbollah attacks northern Israel and said it is prepared to resume operations against Iran if diplomacy fails or if Iran attacks Israel.

12:19 AM, 30 June 2026

UAE allows citizens to travel to Lebanon

The UAE Ministry of Foreign Affairs has announced that Emirati citizens will be allowed to travel to Lebanon from Monday, June 29, 2026.

The ministry said registration through the Tawajudi service is mandatory before travel, adding that citizens will not be allowed to leave UAE ports of departure before completing the registration process to avoid travel procedures being suspended or legal accountability.

In a statement posted on Instagram, the ministry said UAE citizens must also notify the relevant authorities of their return through Tawajudi.

It urged citizens to contact the ministry in emergencies on +97180024.

The decision follows an earlier travel ban announced on April 30, 2026, when the ministry barred UAE citizens from travelling to Iran, Lebanon and Iraq due to regional developments and called on citizens already in those countries to leave and return to the UAE as soon as possible.

world

Qatar vessel incident: One killed, one injured

The Ministry of Interior of Qatar has confirmed that maritime search operations were carried out after a vessel carrying two individuals failed to return at its scheduled time, prompting an immediate response from the General Directorate of Coasts and Borders Security.

According to an official statement, routine monitoring and verification procedures first flagged the delay, following which maritime patrols launched a search operation on the evening of Saturday, June 27, 2026

The Maritime Search and Rescue Team located the vessel in the early hours of Sunday, June 28, the ministry said.

One killed, one injured in incident

The ministry confirmed that a Qatari citizen was killed after sustaining injuries from shrapnel linked to military activity in the area.

An Arab resident on board was also injured and has been hospitalised in stable condition.

Condolences and ongoing investigation

The Ministry of Interior extended its condolences to the family of the deceased, praying for mercy upon him, and wished a swift recovery for the injured individual.

It added that investigations are ongoing in accordance with established legal procedures.