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UBS: AI could jolt credit markets

The stock market has been quick to punish software firms and other perceived losers from the artificial intelligence boom in recent weeks, but credit markets are likely to be the next place where AI disruption risk shows up, according to UBS analyst Matthew Mish.

Tens of billions of dollars in corporate loans are likely to default over the next year as companies, especially software and data services firms owned by private equity, get squeezed by the AI threat, Mish said in a Wednesday research note.

“We’re pricing in part of what we call a rapid, aggressive disruption scenario,” Mish, UBS head of credit strategy, told CNBC in an interview.

The UBS analyst said he and his colleagues have rushed to update their forecasts for this year and beyond because the latest models from Anthropic and OpenAI have sped up expectations of the arrival of AI disruption.

“The market has been slow to react because they didn’t really think it was going to happen this fast,” Mish said. “People are having to recalibrate the whole way that they look at evaluating credit for this disruption risk, because it’s not a ’27 or ’28 issue.”

Investor concerns around AI boiled over this month as the market shifted from viewing the technology as a rising tide story for technology companies to more of a winner-take-all dynamic where Anthropic, OpenAI and others threaten incumbents. Software firms were hit first and hardest, but a rolling series of sell-offs hit sectors as disparate as finance, real estate and trucking.

In his note, Mish and other UBS analysts lay out a baseline scenario in which borrowers of leveraged loans and private credit see a combined $75 billion to $120 billion in fresh defaults by the end of this year.

CNBC calculated those figures by using Mish’s estimates for increases of up to 2.5% and up to 4% in defaults for leveraged loans and private credit, respectively, by late 2026. Those are markets which he estimates to be $1.5 trillion and $2 trillion in size.

‘Credit crunch’?

But Mish also highlighted the possibility of a more sudden, painful AI transition in which defaults jump by twice the estimates for his base assumption, cutting off funding for many companies, he said. The scenario is what’s known in Wall Street jargon as a “tail risk.”

“The knock-on effect will be that you will have a credit crunch in loan markets,” he said. “You will have a broad repricing of leveraged credit, and you will have a shock to the system coming from credit.”

While the risks are rising, they will be governed by the timing of AI adoption by large corporations, the pace of AI model improvements and other uncertain factors, according to the UBS analyst.

“We’re not yet calling for that tail-risk scenario, but we are moving in that direction,” he said.

Leveraged loans and private credit are generally considered among the riskier corners of corporate credit, since they often finance below-investment-grade companies, many of them backed by private equity and carrying higher levels of debt.

When it comes to the AI trade, companies can be placed into three broad categories, according to Mish: The first are creators of the foundational large language models such as Anthropic and OpenAI, which are startups but could soon be large, publicly traded companies.

The second are investment-grade software firms like Salesforce and Adobe that have robust balance sheets and can implement AI to fend off challengers.

The last category is the cohort of private equity-owned software and data services companies with relatively high levels of debt.

“The winners of this entire transformation — if it really becomes, as we’re increasingly believing, a rapid and very disruptive or severe [change] — the winners are least likely to come from that third bucket,” Mish said.

CNBC

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Naomi Watts urges women to own menopause

Oscar-nominated actress Naomi Watts has continued to have fame on the screen into her 50s, but she is building more of her life story around navigating deeply personal and often unspoken health and aging issues.She has become increasingly open about topics many public figures, and Hollywood actresses in particular, avoid, using her platform to normalize conversations regarding fertility, aging, and physical changes, with the goal of helping women feel confident in their body no matter their age.

“I am trying to put forward the messaging that we can be okay with how we look,” Watts told CNBC’s Julia Boorstin at the CNBC Changemakers Summit in New York City on Thursday. “It’s okay to be 57 and look 57.”

Watts launched Stripes Beauty in 2022, a company focused on helping women navigate the challenges associated with perimenopause and menopause, while aiming to address everything from skin to hair changes to overall wellness.

Menopause was considered very taboo to talk about in many cultures mainly because of the age-fertility link and generational gatekeeping. In many societies a woman’s “value” was tied to her youth and ability to bear children. Talking about menopause meant admitting those stages were over. Many women in different generations were taught to silence it and view it as a private burden and not share it.

At the Changemakers Summit, Watts said searched for reasons to help explain why no one talked about it, and even used an anonymous Instagram to search for clues. “Why isn’t there any information? Why is it so hard? Why is it so taboo when we are half the population?” she said. “It is just biology.”

Founder and chief creative officer at Stripes Beauty, Watts was featured on the 2025 CNBC Changemakers list.

Menopause typically occurs around ages 45 to 55 and gets diagnosed after a woman does not get her period for 12 months. According to information from Midi Health, whose CEO Joanna Strober was also named to the 2025 CNBC Changemakers list, 6,000 women hit menopause every day in the U.S., which equates to 1.3 million women annually, while four in five midlife women experience symptoms of menopause, such as hot flashes.

Watts experienced early menopause in her mid-30s. She faced the common symptoms like night flashes and hot flashes. Watts has said in the past that she felt as if “I didn’t have control over my own body.”

Stripes Beauty has expanded into major retailers like Ulta Beauty and Sephora, with the once niche, uncomfortable category now becoming a mainstream part of women’s consumer health and beauty. The company was acquired in a deal between Watts and private investment firm L Catterton, which is backed by Louis Vuitton parent company LVMH, in 2024. It launched “National Hot Flash Day,” celebrated Sept. 9, to reinforce the message that the menopause journey is a completely natural and shared experience.

Watts says women should make “a bet on themselves” no matter what society is telling, or not telling, them.

“After 50, I have felt so much better about knowing who I am, so much more comfortable in my skin,” she said. “Stay connected to women. Women are everything. I am nothing without the community of women I have around me.”

Watts said in the past, when people came up to her in public, she often worried that requests to take selfies would follow, and she couldn’t help but think about being pictured without makeup on. But she says her menopause advocacy in recent years has changed many of these public interactions. “They’re coming up to me with tears in their eyes sometimes, or just wanting to say thank you for giving me the permission, or the dialogue, so I could speak with my husband or partner or family members and not have shame about it. … that gives me great joy. It’s so heartening to know the risk I took had a meaningful effect on others.”

CNBC

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Dubai gold rises for a third day after its worst month since 2008.

Dubai gold prices moved higher early Wednesday, extending a short-term rebound after a sharp correction through March that unsettled buyers and traders alike.

At 8:22 am, 24K gold stood at Dh566.75, up from Dh563.25 a day earlier, while 22K rose to Dh525 from Dh521.50. (Check latest UAE gold prices here, alongside prices in Saudi ArabiaOmanQatarBahrainKuwait, and India.)

The uptick follows a volatile month where prices dropped nearly 12%, marking the steepest monthly decline since October 2008. That slide has reset expectations across the market, with buyers returning in phases rather than rushing in.

Peak to pullback

Gold had surged to levels above $4,700 an ounce in recent sessions, recovering from a broad sell-off triggered by rising US Treasury yields and a stronger dollar.

The shift in direction reflects a wider change in market positioning. Investors who once turned to gold for protection during geopolitical stress instead moved toward yield-bearing assets, particularly as expectations of interest rate cuts faded.

Ahmad Assiri, Research Strategist at Pepperstone, said gold’s behaviour through March marked a clear break from its traditional role.

“Gold’s failure to serve as a safe haven throughout March highlights a dramatic shift in the global macro landscape,” he said.

He added that rising yields and a stronger dollar “forced a painful downside repricing of the yellow metal,” with investors moving away from expectations of monetary easing and pricing in tighter conditions.

War outlook shifts sentiment

Recent gains have been supported by signs that tensions in the Middle East may ease, with market attention shifting from immediate conflict risks to longer-term economic implications.

Comments from US President Donald Trump suggesting a potential resolution within weeks have lifted equities and softened the dollar, creating space for gold to stabilise.

Bond traders have also reduced bets on aggressive rate hikes, focusing instead on growth risks tied to the conflict. That recalibration has helped bullion regain some ground, though conviction remains limited.

Buyers weigh timing

Despite the rebound, the broader trend still reflects caution. Prices remain well below mid-March peaks, when 24K gold crossed Dh600, highlighting the scale of the recent correction.

Assiri pointed to deeper structural shifts shaping demand.

“The market chose the yield of the dollar and the volatility of oil over the safety of gold,” he said, noting that capital moved toward assets offering stronger returns during the height of uncertainty.

That dynamic is likely to keep buyers selective in the near term. Jewellery shoppers and investors in the UAE are watching for clearer signals on rates and geopolitical stability before committing in size.

Outlook steadies, but not settled

Some global banks continue to maintain a constructive view on gold over the longer term, citing central bank demand and the possibility of rate cuts later this year.

Still, the near-term outlook remains tied to macro signals. Movements in yields, the dollar and energy markets are now playing a more decisive role than geopolitical headlines alone.

GN

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China Suppliers Warn US Prices to Rise Over Hormuz Closure

Pickleball paddle producer Devi Wei has a message for U.S. shoppers.

“Americans will have to pay more,” the Chinese businessman told CNBC at a Beijing trade show last week at the China International Exhibition Center.

Because of the recent swings in oil prices resulting from the Iran war and closure of the Strait of Hormuz, Wei, who founded his own exporting business, Huijin Trade, has had to hike prices on his paddles and pickleballs by as much as 20%, he said.

Wei’s goods are made with polypropylene, a plastic material derived from oil and made in the Middle East, a dominant producer in the global industry. The war in Iran has stalled shipments of oil and its products through the Strait of Hormuz, raising concerns among Chinese manufacturers at the trade fair about further disruption across the global supply chain.

“I might have to go even higher,” Wei said. “Maybe double if the Iran war doesn’t stop soon.”

Surging oil prices are filtering into prices of all kinds of products that rely on the commodity for manufacturing.

James Li, who makes scarves and said he sells a third of his inventory to the U.S., has marked up his polyester products by 5%.

“This scarf is 30% polyester,” Li told CNBC from his trade show booth. “We will definitely pass on the extra cost to our customers.”

Wang Mingming, a general manager of toy manufacturer Jinming Gifts, said he is hoarding two months’ worth of the plastic polymer PVC, but isn’t sure he can hold off charging more for his figurines.

“In our industry, these materials are almost irreplaceable,” Wang said. “If oil prices rise any further, we really won’t be able to manage.” 

Cameron Johnson, senior partner at Shanghai-based supply chain consultancy Tidalwave Solutions, said he foresees competition for oil-related products among entire sectors if the crisis at the Strait of Hormuz isn’t resolved soon. A prolonged impasse in the critical waterway also raises the possibility of product shortages.

“If this goes on into May, everyone will be in big trouble and there will be triage between industries,” Johnson said, predicting autos and the medical field would be granted higher priority. “There is no visibility when new supply will come.”

Perhaps the biggest worry among China’s manufacturers is what costlier oil will mean for discretionary spending by consumers worldwide.

More money for gas means less for Wei’s pickleballs.

“Ordinary people are getting squeezed the most from the high oil price,” he said. “Their spending power just isn’t what it used to be.

CNBC

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