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Oil tops $120 on Trump warning of months-long Iran blockade

The price of Brent oil soared above $126 a barrel on Wednesday, its highest level since 2022, after Donald Trump warned the US blockade of Iranian ports could last months and peace talks remained stalled.

Surging more than 13% in 24 hours, Brent crude hit a record price since the war began on 28 February. Not since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine has Brent topped $120, with the price then peaking at $139.

Oil markets have been spooked this week as Trump appeared willing to maintain the US Navy blockade of Iranian ports, with Iran responding by keeping the strait of Hormuz all but shut to other oil tankers.

US-Iran talks set for Islamabad in Pakistan over the weekend failed to materialise, so the stalemate grinds on.

Trump on Wednesday said Iran “better get smart soon” and in a meeting with oil executives discussed what steps could be taken to “continue the current blockade for months if needed,” according to a White House official.

US officials hope the blockade will force Iran to cap its oil wells and shutter production once its oil facilities, such as Kharg Island, have filled to the brim. Analysts are unsure how long that could take.

“The blockade is somewhat more effective than the bombing,” Trump told Axios. “They are choking like a stuffed pig.”

The war is about to enter its 10th week, despite Trump’s initial projections of a 4-6 week conflict before Tehran would buckle. Global oil supplies drop by nearly 20 million barrels every day the strait is choked off.

Oxford Economics warned in a blog post that a six-month impasse in the strait could send oil prices as high as $190 by August.

Jim Reid, a market strategist at Deutsche Bank, said the jump in the oil price was feeding “growing fears about an extended stagflationary shock”, and pushing up the interest rates – or yields – on government bonds.

“Overnight we’ve seen Japan’s 10-year yield move up to 2.51%, which would be its highest closing level since 1997. It was a similar story in Europe too, with the 10-year [German] bund yield at a post-2011 high of 3.11%, whilst 10-year [UK] gilt yields hit a post-2008 high of 5.07%,” Reid added.

The economist Paul Krugman, a former New York Times columnist, said he believed most analysts have been “far too sanguine” about the effects of a prolonged Hormuz crisis.

“In my view, a full-on global recession is more likely than not if the strait remains closed for, say, another three months, which seems all too possible,” he wrote on his Substack on 20 April.

In 2008, during the global financial crisis, oil surged to record highs, with crude briefly hitting about $147. Two weeks after the US and Israel launched their first strikes on Iran, Tehran said the world needed to prepare for $200 barrels of oil.

Beyond ramping up the cost of petrol, the effects of the supply shock have cascaded through the global economy, causing inflation to rise and sparking some fears of a looming global recession.

US inflation soared in March, with prices up 3.3% over the year. Across the Atlantic, Britain is facing a £35bn economic hit and the risk of a recession in 2026 because of the war, a thinktank warned.

While Congress was questioning the US defense secretary, Pete Hegseth, over the war’s rising costs and strategy, Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, spent the day making phone calls to India, Kenya and Poland, trying to shore up support in his country’s staring contest with the US.

The Guardian

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4-Year Stay Limit: What It Means for International Students

A sweeping change to US immigration rules could soon reshape how international students plan their education in the country, with a proposed policy introducing a fixed four-year limit on student stays.

The White House has cleared a Department of Homeland Security (DHS) regulation that would replace the long-standing “Duration of Status” (D/S) system with a time-bound admission model for foreign students and exchange visitors.

According to Bloomberg reports, under the proposed changes, most international students would be permitted to stay in the US for up to four years. After this period, those continuing their studies would be required to obtain formal approval to extend their stay.

Currently, students can stay for the full length of their academic programme as long as they maintain valid status, without a fixed expiry date.

If implemented, the change could affect F-1 student visa holders, J-1 exchange visitors and other categories, requiring more frequent interaction with US immigration authorities.

The rule has cleared review by the White House Office of Management and Budget and is expected to move toward publication in the Federal Register, with implementation likely within 30 to 60 days of final notification.

What is the proposed change?

Under current plans reported by Bloomberg, international student stays could be capped at around four years, regardless of how long their academic programme runs.

The rule would apply to multiple visa categories, including:

  • F-1 student visas
  • J-1 exchange visitor visas
  • Other related study-based visa categories

If implemented, students whose programmes extend beyond the limit would need to apply for formal extensions through US immigration authorities.

The regulation has already cleared review by the White House Office of Management and Budget (OMB) and is expected to be published in the Federal Register, with an implementation window of 30 to 60 days after publication.

How the current ‘Duration of Status’ system works

At present, international students in the US are admitted under the Duration of Status (D/S) framework.

This allows students to stay in the country for as long as they:

  • Remain enrolled full-time
  • Maintain valid student status
  • Comply with visa conditions

There is no fixed end date attached to their stay.

This system allows flexibility to:

  • Extend academic programmes
  • Switch universities or courses
  • Progress from undergraduate to postgraduate studies
  • Complete Optional Practical Training (OPT) and STEM OPT

What would change under the new rule?

The proposed system would replace this flexible model with a fixed admission period, likely around four years for most students.

Key implications include:

  • Students would no longer have automatic stay based on enrolment
  • Extensions would require approval from USCIS
  • Additional documentation and biometric checks may be required
  • Processing delays could affect academic timelines
  • Overstaying without approval could lead to legal consequences

In effect, continued study in the US would depend on periodic immigration approvals rather than academic enrolment alone.

Why the US government is proposing the change

The Department of Homeland Security argues that the current system makes it harder to track compliance and identify visa overstays.

A fixed end-date model, officials say, would:

  • Improve monitoring of foreign students
  • Strengthen immigration enforcement
  • Standardise visa oversight across categories

Why Indian students could be most affected

India is the largest source of international students in the United States.

According to the Open Doors 2024 report, more than 331,000 Indian students were enrolled in US institutions in the 2023–24 academic year — nearly 30% of all international students.

Many of these students are in programmes that exceed four years, including:

  • PhD and doctoral research programmes
  • Long-duration master’s degrees
  • Technical and professional courses

Under the proposed system, these students may face:

  • More extension applications
  • Increased immigration scrutiny
  • Greater uncertainty around long-term academic planning

Key concerns raised by experts and institutions

Organisations such as the Association of American Universities (AAU), American Council on Education (ACE) and NAFSA have warned that fixed stay limits could:

  • Increase administrative burden
  • Create uncertainty for research-based programmes
  • Make it harder to maintain legal status in longer academic tracks

They also caution that changes could affect transitions into work pathways such as OPT.

What happens if a visa stay expires?

A major concern under the proposed framework is enforcement.

If a student’s authorised stay expires:

  • They may begin accruing unlawful presence immediately
  • Delays in extension processing could create legal risks
  • Immigration penalties could affect future US travel eligibility

According to immigration firm Fragomen, this could significantly raise the stakes for administrative delays or paperwork errors.

Impact on OPT and post-study work pathways

The effect on Optional Practical Training (OPT) is still unclear.

However, experts warn that moving away from the D/S system could:

  • Complicate transitions from study to employment
  • Add procedural steps before work authorisation
  • Increase pressure on visa timelines for STEM OPT participants

OPT remains a key pathway for international graduates seeking US work experience.

What about the grace period?

Earlier versions of the proposal suggested reducing the post-study grace period for F-1 students from 60 days to 30 days.

This period is currently used to:

  • Apply for OPT
  • Transfer universities
  • Change visa status
  • Prepare for departure

Any reduction would tighten post-graduation timelines significantly.

When could the rule take effect?

The rule is not yet in force.

  • OMB review has been completed
  • Final publication in the Federal Register is pending
  • Implementation could begin 30–60 days after publication

Experts suggest rollout may occur later in 2026, though timelines remain uncertain.

What should students do now?

There is no immediate change for current or prospective students.

At this stage, students should:

  • Continue under existing visa rules
  • Monitor updates from DHS and USCIS
  • Stay in touch with university international offices

What happens next

The regulation is not yet in force. It still requires formal publication before becoming law.

Once published, the government is expected to announce an implementation timeline, which experts say could begin later in 2026.

Until then, the current Duration of Status system remains unchanged, allowing students to stay in the US for the full length of their academic programme as long as they comply with visa conditions.

Agencies

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Who Is Colombia’s New Right-Wing President?

Colombia elected nationalist lawyer Abelardo ​De La Espriella as its new president on Sunday, according to an initial vote count, marking a sharp political turn and ‌bringing a hardline security agenda and market-friendly policies to the fore.

Nicknamed “The Tiger” by his followers, De La Espriella portrayed himself as an anti-establishment savior capable of reviving Colombia’s ailing economy and restoring order in a country rattled by illegal armed groups and drug trafficking.

De La Espriella began gaining popularity early in the year with ​his tough-on-crime discourse. He pulled off a victory in the first round in late May with 43.7% of the vote and ​then beat leftist senator Ivan Cepeda in the runoff with 49.66% to Cepeda’s 48.7%, according to the national registrar’s ⁠tally.

De La Espriella, who blames outgoing President Gustavo for Colombia’s economic and security woes, won over a plurality of voters with pledges to reduce the size of ​the state by 40%, broaden the tax base and end peace efforts with armed groups in favor of a hardened military response.

He plans ​to restart oil exploration and allow fracking to nearly double production to 1.3 million barrels per day.

De La Espriella claims to have self-financed his campaign and says his “Defenders of the Homeland” movement grew without support from outside political parties or business groups. Reuters could not independently verify this claim.

Aside from being an attorney, De La ​Espriella has a sprawling business empire that includes wine, rum, clothing and real estate. An investigative journalism outlet, La Silla Vacia, found that ​many of his businesses have been dissolved, are in debt and lost money overall in 2024, with his law firm being his most profitable endeavor. De La ‌Espriella’s campaign ⁠declined to answer La Silla Vacia’s questions about the candidate’s businesses, the outlet said, but later questioned its funding in a public letter. La Silla Vacia rejected allegations of bias.

LUXURY WATCHES ON AN IRON FIST

De La Espriella, 47, used a military salute throughout his campaign despite never having served in the military.

Often seen wearing luxury watches, designer sunglasses and with a well-groomed beard, De La Espriella has drawn comparisons to El Salvador’s ​Nayib Bukele, who calls himself the “world’s ​coolest dictator.”

Bukele has implemented heavy-handed ⁠security policies and mega-prisons that pushed crime rates in El Salvador to among the lowest in Central America and prompted calls for other countries to adopt similar policies. He has detained more than 90,000 people in ​the process, drawing criticism from human rights groups.

De La Espriella denies he is imitating Bukele but has ​proposed 10 mega-prisons ⁠in Colombia.

De La Espriella has also faced criticism for legally representing Alex Saab, who faces charges in the U.S. of laundering money for ousted Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. He has also represented people linked to corruption scandals, financial embezzlement and right-wing paramilitaries and says his professional relationships as an attorney ⁠do not ​involve any complicity or crime.

De La Espriella, a married father of four, grew up ​in the Caribbean city of Monteria and is a known singer of the region’s traditional vallenato folk music. A citizen of the United States, Italy and Colombia, De La Espriella ​is set to assume the presidency on August 7.

Thomson Reuters

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US-Iran talks move to technical phase

High-level talks in Switzerland to permanently end the Iran war wrapped up early Monday after a tense start. While top officials left, lower-level teams will stay to detail a new ‘de-confliction cell’ aimed at stopping fighting in Lebanon. The move comes despite President Trump trading sharp threats with Tehran over social media, even as negotiators try to salvage a lasting peace deal over the next 60 days. Follow all the latest developments here:


06:51 AM, 22 June 2026

Iran FM Araghchi says ‘major progress’ in US talks

Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Monday there was “major progress” in talks with the United States.

“Pakistani and Qatari mediation has delivered major progress to end Lebanon War,” Araghchi posted on X.

“Oil and petrochem exports are waived, blockade lifted, some frozen assets released, and major reconstruction & development plan launched for Iran.”

06:01 AM, 22 June 2026

Brent crude drops to $79 — oil markets mixed as Iran, Israel announce halt of offensive, easing war fears

Oil prices were mixed in Asian trading Monday as markets weighed fresh Middle East de-escalation signals against lingering supply and security risks, with WTI edging up while Brent fell sharply and Murban also slipped, as of 10:33 am Tokyo time on June 22, 2026.

WTI crude was quoted at $75.91 a barrel, up 6 cents or 0.08%.

Brent crude, the global benchmark, stood at $79.71, down 86 cents or 1.07%, while Murban crude was at $73.63, down 30 cents or 0.41%.

The market reaction came after Iran’s military joint command said it was halting offensive operations against Israel, following hours of retaliatory strikes that had raised fears of a broader regional conflict.


05:31 AM, 22 June 2026

Iran, US to set up ‘de-confliction cell’ with Lebanon to stop military operations: mediators

Iran and the United States have agreed to set up a “de-confliction cell” with Lebanon to stop military operations, mediators Pakistan and Qatar said in a joint statement on Monday.

“The parties agreed on the creation of a de-confliction cell, between the parties, the Lebanese Republic and facilitated by the Mediators, to ensure the adherence of the termination of military operations in Lebanon,” the joint statement read.


05:27 AM, 22 June 2026

Iran, US agree roadmap to ‘final deal within 60 days’, lay foundation for immediate commencement of further technical talks: Qatar, Pakistan mediators

Iran and the United States agreed on a roadmap towards reaching a final deal to end the war within 60 days, meditors Pakistan and Qatar said in a joint statement on Monday.

“The High Level Committee has agreed upon a roadmap towards reaching a final deal within 60 days, laying the foundation for the immediate commencement of further technical talks,” the joint statement read.

03:41 AM, 22 June 2026

US-Iran talks expected to continue through the night

The first round of direct US-Iran talks since deal expected to continue through the night. US President Donald Trump, who is not at the talks, had earlier exchanged warnings with Iran’s negotiator over clashes between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon.

01:40 AM, 22 June 2026

Egypt, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Türkiye affirm US-Iran MoU should ensure security, stability of Gulf region

The foreign ministers of Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Türkiye and Pakistan, emphasised that the US-Iran agreement should take into account the csecurity and stability of countries across the region.

In a joint statement after a consultative meeting held in Cairo, the ministers described it as “a constructive step towards de-escalation and towards ending a conflict which posed significant risks to regional security and stability, as well as to energy markets, international maritime routes, global supply chains, and international trade.” Building on the memorandum of understanding, the ministers emphasised the need for a swift conclusion to the next phase of negotiations to reach “a lasting, verifiable, and mutually acceptable solution” to the remaining issues.

01:13 AM, 22 June 2026

Iraq pressing ahead with plans to export crude oil through Syria

Iraq is pressing ahead with plans to export crude oil through Syria’s Mediterranean coast even as shipping through the Strait of Hormuz gradually returns to normal, underscoring how this year’s Gulf crisis has permanently reshaped energy security calculations across the Middle East.

The move follows the disruption caused by the temporary closure of the Strait of Hormuz during the U.S.-Iran conflict, which exposed Iraq’s heavy dependence on a single maritime chokepoint. Iraqi officials told Reuters that Baghdad intends to maintain the new export corridor through Syria’s port of Baniyas as a permanent alternative rather than merely an emergency contingency.

The decision reflects a broader strategic lesson from the conflict: even if Hormuz is reopened, countries that rely on it are no longer willing to assume the world’s most important oil shipping lane will always remain accessible.

Iraq, the second-largest producer in OPEC, typically exports about 3.6 million barrels of crude oil per day, with roughly 3.4 million barrels traditionally shipped through its southern Gulf terminals connected to the Strait of Hormuz. When the waterway was effectively closed earlier this year, exports slowed sharply and crude inventories accumulated as storage facilities filled.

To reduce that vulnerability, Baghdad is developing an alternative outlet through Syria. Initial crude exports from the Mediterranean port of Baniyas are expected to begin as early as July at around 50,000 barrels per day, while fuel oil is already being trucked across the border for shipment to buyers in Europe and Africa. Syrian authorities are expanding storage and unloading facilities at Baniyas to accommodate higher export volumes.

01:09 AM, 22 June 2026

Iranian military’s joint command said it is halting its offensive operations vs Israel

The Iranian military’s joint command said that it is halting its offensive operations hours after Israel and Iran began trading fire early Monday in retaliatory strikes that threatened to drag the wider Middle East back into a full-scale regional war.

01:07 AM, 22 June 2026

Netanyahu acknowledges halt in fighting with Iran but vows to respond ‘with force’ to future attacks

Israel struck Iran on Monday after being targeted by missiles, while a U.S. military base in Saudi Arabia came under fire in the most serious exchange of hostilities since an April ceasefire, raising the possibility of a return to heavy fighting and complicating mediation efforts to end the war, AP reported.

In a brief statement, Netanyahu said the fighting has stopped “after we hit the terror regime in Tehran.” But he said, “If the terror regime in Iran makes the mistake and returns to attacking us, we will respond with force.”

Netanyahu also said that Israel is continuing to operate against Iran’s ally, the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah, and that Israel “has full right to self-defense and we will exercise it to the full extent necessary.”

GN

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