politics
Starmer and Macron to host summit on reopening strait of Hormuz
UK prime minister Keir Starmer and French president Emmanuel Macron will co-host a summit in Paris on Friday focused on efforts to reopen the strait of Hormuz, Downing Street said.
A spokesperson said: “The summit will advance work towards a coordinated, independent, multinational plan to safeguard international shipping once the conflict ends.”
Macron has previously said the countries participating in the initiative would work on a “strictly defensive mission, separate from the warring parties to the conflict” which “is intended to be deployed as soon as circumstances permit”.
The UK chancellor, Rachel Reeves has said she was “very frustrated and angry” over what she said was the United States’ failure to have a clear exit plan or objectives for the war in Iran, according to the Mirror newspaper.
“This is a war that we did not start. It was a war that we did not want. I feel very frustrated and angry that the US went into this war without a clear exit plan, without a clear idea of what they were trying to achieve,” the British finance minister told the newspaper.
“And as a result the strait of Hormuz is now blocked,” she added.
Marco Rubio to attend Lebanon-Israel talks in Washington
As the Iranian-linked militia Hezbollah urges Lebanon to pull out of talks with Israel later today, Reuters has some more details, including the news that US secretary of state, Marco Rubio, will attend.
Talks will be held in Washington at 11am ET (3pm GMT, 4pm BST) between the Israeli ambassador to the US, Yechiel Leiter, and his Lebanese counterpart, Nada Hamadeh Moawad, officials say.
As well as Rubio, the US ambassador to Lebanon, Michel Issa, and the state department’s counsellor, Michael Needham, would attend, a department official said.
Lebanon, Israel and the US have issued conflicting statements on what the talks would cover.
Lebanon’s presidency has said the talks would focus on announcing a ceasefire and setting a start date for bilateral talks. A ceasefire was the only substantive issue Moawad is authorised to discuss, Lebanese Culture Minister Ghassan Salameh said on Sunday.
Israel would not discuss a ceasefire during the talks, which would focus on disarming Hezbollah and establishing peaceful relations between Israel and Lebanon, Israeli government spokesperson Shosh Bedrosian said on Monday.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) said it expects the steepest quarterly decline in demand for crude oil since the Covid-19 pandemic slashed fuel consumption.
The IEA noted that its forecasts assume a “base case” of oil shipments resuming in May through the strait of Hormuz, which Iran has effectively closed since the start of the war on 28 February.
This would lead to a decline in demand of 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd) in the second quarter, “the sharpest since Covid-19 slashed fuel consumption”, the IEA said.
Overall demand is forecast to have contracted by 800,000 bpd in March and is seen dropping by 2.3 million bpd in April.
Further to its earlier news alert on the possible second round of US-Iran talks in Islamabad (see post at 08:06), Reuters is now citing an Iranian embassy in Pakistan as saying negotiations could take place this week or early next week.
“No firm date has been set, with the delegations keeping Friday through Sunday open,” a senior Iranian source said, according to the news agency.
Three Iran-linked tankers pass through strait of Hormuz – Reuters
Three Iran-linked tankers have passed through the strait of Hormuz on the first full day of the US blockade of Iranian ports, Reuters has reported, citing shipping data.
The news agency reported that the three vessels were not heading to Iranian ports, and so they were not covered by the blockade.
They were:
- Panama-flagged Peace Gulf, a medium-range tanker that was heading to Hamriyah port in the UAE. The vessel typically moves Iranian naphtha, an oil product that is used for making plastics and chemicals.
- US-sanctioned tanker, Murlikishan, that was sailing to Iraq to load fuel oil. The vessel, formerly known as MKA, has transported Russian and Iranian oil.
- Rich Starry, a US sanctioned and Chinese flagged vessel, which would be the first to pass the strait of Hormuz. It is carrying about 250,000 barrels of methanol, which it loaded at its last port of call, the UAE’s Hamriyah. The New York Times reported the vessel picked up the methanol from an unspecified port in the Arabian Gulf and was bound for China.
US-sanctioned Chinese tanker passes Strait of Hormuz despite US blockade
In further comments, Guo said the US blockade of Iranian ports “further jeopardises safety of passage through the strait [of Hormuz]”, calling it “dangerous and irresponsible behaviour”.
China said it will impose “countermeasures” after Donald Trump threatened new tariffs on its goods entering the US if Beijing provided military assistance to Iran.
“If the US insists on using this as an excuse to impose additional tariffs on China, China will definitely take resolute countermeasures,” the Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson, Guo Jiakun, told a news conference, according to AFP news agency.
The Chinese president, Xi Jinping, has put forward a four-point proposal for peace and stability in the Middle East, as he called for the world not to be allowed to “revert to the law of the jungle”.
In the most significant remarks he’s made so far about the crisis in the Middle East, Xi said China would play a “constructive role” in promoting peace talks in the Middle East.
He made the comments during a meeting with Khaled bin Mohamed, the crown prince of Abu Dhabi, in Beijing today, where the two sides exchanged views on the current situation in the Middle East and the Gulf region, according to a readout by the Chinese state news agency Xinhua.
On his four-point proposal, Xi called for:
- Upholding a “principle of peaceful coexistence” and to “promote the building of a common, comprehensive, cooperative and sustainable security architecture for the Middle East and the Gulf region”.
- Upholding state sovereignty, including the protection of personnel, facilities and institutions.
- Upholding international rule of law that should not be “used it when it is convenient and abandoned when it is not … we cannot allow the world to revert to the law of the jungle”.
- All countries to “integrate development and security” and “create a favourable environment and inject positive energy into the development of the Gulf states in the Middle East”.
Reuters has reported that the US and Iran will return to Pakistan for peace talks. Citing four sources, the news agency said the negotiating teams from both sides will be in Islamabad for a second round of talks later this week.
We will bring you more updates as we get it.
Saudi Arabia is urging the US to end its blockade of the strait of Hormuz over fears Iran could retaliate and target other shipping routes, according to the Wall Street Journal, citing Arab officials.
The officials raised concerns that Iran could close the Bab al-Mandab, a major global chokepoint between Yemen and the Horn of Africa which has been vulnerable to Houthi attacks. Saudi Arabia has been relying on its Red Sea port at Yanbu to export oil, but if the Bab el-Mandeb closes, the kingdom could lose its last remaining export route.
The day so far
It’s 9.30am in Tehran, 9am in Tel Aviv and 2am in Washington DC – and if you’re just joining today’s live coverage of the US-Israel war on Iran, here’s a summary of the latest to bring you up to speed.
- The US blockade of ships using Iranian ports in the Gulf began on Monday, turning the six-week-old conflict between the US-Israeli coalition and Iran into a test of economic endurance.
- Iran’s president, Masoud Pezeshkian, warned that any threat to the strait of Hormuz would have “widespread consequences for the world”, according to Iranian media. Pezeshkian reportedly told French president Emmanuel Macron yesterday that the US’s “excessive demands” had thwarted an agreement during the weekend talks in Pakistan.
- US Central Command said the blockade would apply to any ships entering or departing Iranian ports or coastal areas, while ships using non-Iranian ports would not be impeded.
- Donald Trump claimed at the White House that “we’ve been called by the other side”, which would “like to make a deal very badly”. He insisted the US would not agree to any deal that would permit Iran to have a nuclear weapon, saying: “We can’t let a country blackmail or extort the world.” News reports indicated US officials were continuing talks with Tehran.
- Oil prices plunged and stocks rose on Tuesday on hopes for a deal to end the war.
The Guardian
People
David Attenborough, ‘the voice for nature,’ turns 100
Britain’s David Attenborough, who has for decades been the world’s most authoritative voice on the natural world and whose documentaries have been watched by hundreds of millions, will on Friday celebrate his 100th birthday.
After more than 70 years of film-making, Attenborough’s instantly recognisable voice is synonymous with the story of nature. He is still at the vanguard of efforts to protect the environment and has produced some of his most impactful work in recent years.
Counting Britain’s royal family, Barack Obama and pop star Billie Eilish among his admirers, Attenborough’s charisma, humour and warmth, alongside the depth of his knowledge and his flair for storytelling, have made him a broadcasting superstar.
“Your ability to communicate the beauty and vulnerability of our natural environment remains unequalled,” was how the late Queen Elizabeth summed up his achievements in 2019.
‘LONESOME GEORGE’ AND THE FRAGILE ENVIRONMENT
Attenborough’s films have communicated the wonder and also the tragedies of the natural world to viewers across the globe.
Standout scenes include his encounter with two playful young mountain gorillas who clambered onto him during his landmark 1979 series “Life on Earth”.
He also made his audience marvel at the teamwork of a pod of orcas hunting a seal by creating waves to break up ice, and his telling in 2012 of the story of “Lonesome George”, the last surviving Pinta Island tortoise, moved people to tears.
“He’s about 80 years old, and getting a bit creaky in his joints – as indeed am I,” Attenborough, then 86, said.
George’s death, two weeks after he was filmed, marked the extinction of his species.
“He’s focused the attention of the world on the fragility of our environment,” Attenborough said at the time.
While Attenborough has topped numerous national popularity polls, being named the country’s most admired man and the greatest living British cultural icon, friends say he rolls his eyes when he is labelled a “national treasure”.
“What he feels is that he’s a public servant. He feels that he had the unique opportunity to be the voice for nature, to tell everybody about the wonders of nature,” Mike Gunton, a television producer who has worked with Attenborough many times, told Reuters.
As climate change has accelerated and the threat to much of the world has become more urgent, Attenborough devoted much of his 90s to raising public awareness.
His 2017 blockbuster “Blue Planet 2”, which highlighted the scourge of plastic in the ocean, achieved some of the highest viewing figures on British television before being sold to broadcasters around the world.
Albatrosses unwittingly feeding their chicks plastic fished from the ocean jolted public opinion and led the British government and major retailers to announce measures to reduce the use of plastics.
“I think every single person who’s seen anything that Sir David has done has been inspired to care about nature,” said Doug Gurr, director of the Natural History Museum in London.
SPECIAL BBC BROADCASTS AND EVENTS
In Britain, Attenborough’s centenary is being marked with a week of special broadcasts on the BBC, a live concert at the Royal Albert Hall, events at museums, nature walks and tree planting.
The broadcasts include his new series “Secret Garden”. At 99, he remains heavily involved in programme-making, say BBC colleagues, driven by his enduring curiosity and joy of storytelling.
“That’s typical David. He makes everything really enjoyable,” said Mike Salisbury, who has worked as a producer on several Attenborough documentaries.
Born on May 8, 1926, Attenborough spent his childhood collecting fossils, insects and dried seahorses.
His BBC career took off in 1954 when he presented “Zoo Quest”, which involved him travelling to far-flung parts of the world and bringing animals back to London Zoo.
By the 1970s he had risen to be programme controller at the broadcaster but decided he wanted to return to making nature documentaries.
Screened in 1979 when he was 52, “Life on Earth” made him a household name. He wrote the entire 13-hour script and travelled the world for three years to tell the story of evolution from simple organisms to humans.
Dozens of documentaries followed, including “Blue Planet,” “Frozen Planet” and “Dynasties”. As the decades passed, his sense of the need to act only increased.
“How could I look my grandchildren in the eye and say I knew what was happening to the world and did nothing?” Attenborough said.
Reuters
politics
UAE, Saudi report drone incidents as Iran war drags on
A drone strike caused a fire at a nuclear power plant in the United Arab Emirates, officials there said on Sunday, while Saudi Arabia reported intercepting three drones, as U.S. President Donald Trump warned that Iran must act “fast” after efforts to end the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran appeared to have stalled.
Emirati officials said they were investigating the source of the strike and that the UAE had the full right to respond to such “terrorist attacks.” A diplomatic adviser to the UAE president said it represented a dangerous escalation, whether carried out by “the principal perpetrator” or one of its proxies.
The UAE defense ministry said two other drones had been “successfully” dealt with, and that the drones had been launched from the “western border.” It did not elaborate.
Saudi Arabia said the three drones it intercepted entered from Iraqi airspace and warned that it would take the necessary operational measures to respond to any attempt to violate its sovereignty and security.
While hostilities during the Iran conflict have largely been scaled down since a ceasefire came into effect in April, drones have been launched from Iraq towards Gulf countries, including Saudi Arabia and Kuwait.
The drone that got through the UAE’s defenses hit an electrical generator outside the inner perimeter of the Barakah Nuclear Power Plant, the Abu Dhabi Media Office said. Radiological safety levels were unaffected and there were no injuries, it said. UAE’s Federal Authority for Nuclear Regulation later confirmed that the plant remained safe, with no radioactive material released from the strike.
The International Atomic Energy Agency said emergency diesel generators were providing power to the plant’s “unit 3,” and called for “maximum military restraint” near any nuclear power plant, adding that it was following the situation closely.
During the war that began with U.S. and Israeli strikes against Iran on February 28, Iran has repeatedly targeted the UAE and other Gulf states that host U.S. military bases, hitting sites that include civilian and energy infrastructure.
Iran stepped up such attacks on the UAE earlier this month after Trump announced a naval mission to try to open the Strait of Hormuz, which Trump suspended after 48 hours.
DIPLOMATIC DEADLOCK
More than five weeks after a tenuous ceasefire in the conflict took effect, U.S. and Iranian demands remain far apart despite diplomatic efforts to end the war and reopen the strait, the world’s most important shipping route for oil and gas.
Washington has called for Tehran to dismantle its nuclear program and lift its hold on the strait. Iran has demanded compensation for war damage, an end to a U.S. blockade of Iranian ports and a halt to fighting on all fronts, including in Lebanon, where Israel is battling Iran-backed Hezbollah.
Trump, whose harsh rhetoric has failed to break the stalemate, said in a post on Truth Social: “For Iran, the Clock is Ticking, and they better get moving, FAST, or there won’t be anything left of them. TIME IS OF THE ESSENCE!”
Trump is expected to meet top national security advisers on Tuesday to discuss options for military action regarding Iran, Axios reported.
Trump held talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping this week without securing an indication from China that it would help resolve the conflict and has previously threatened to resume attacks if Iran does not agree to a deal.
A senior spokesperson for the Iranian armed forces, Abolfazl Shekarchi, said on Sunday that if Trump’s threats were carried out, the U.S. would “face new, aggressive, and surprise scenarios, and sink into a self-made quagmire”.
Iranian foreign ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baqaei said the U.S. and Israel had tried to shift the blame for destabilizing energy markets following their “unprovoked military aggression against Iran”.
RIVAL BLOCKADES
The disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has caused the biggest oil supply crisis in history, pushing up prices. The U.S. has imposed its own blockade of Iranian ports, and said that as of Sunday it had redirected 81 commercial vessels and disabled four vessels to ensure compliance.
Ebrahim Azizi, who heads the Iranian parliament’s national security committee, said on Saturday that Tehran had prepared a mechanism to manage traffic through the strait along a designated route that would be unveiled soon.
Thousands of Iranians were killed in the U.S. and Israeli airstrikes. Thousands more have been killed in Lebanon in fighting between Israel and the Iran-backed group Hezbollah.
Israel and Lebanon agreed on Friday to a 45-day extension of a ceasefire there, though the truce has failed to end clashes.
Reuters
politics
What if disruption in Strait of Hormuz never ends?
For months, governments, businesses and financial markets treated the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz as a temporary crisis that would eventually ease through diplomacy or military de-escalation.
Moody’s Ratings is now warning the world may need to think differently.
In a new report, the ratings agency said the disruption to one of the world’s most important energy shipping routes is increasingly looking less like a short-term shock and more like a structural risk that could reshape global trade, energy markets and economic planning well beyond 2026.
The warning marks a shift in tone from earlier assessments that viewed the crisis mainly as a temporary supply disruption.
“We now have a single, central scenario which assumes a prolonged and significant disruption to the Strait of Hormuz through autumn,” Moody’s said.
Strait still vital to the world
The Strait of Hormuz handles around one-fifth of global crude oil and liquefied natural gas flows, making it one of the world’s most critical trade chokepoints.
But shipping through the route has fallen by more than 90 per cent from pre-conflict levels as insurers raise premiums, shipping companies avoid the area and concerns over sea mines continue to disrupt navigation.
The conflict itself may dominate headlines, but Moody’s said the larger issue is what happens if the disruption simply drags on for months.
That could mean permanently higher shipping costs, more expensive energy, slower trade flows and new supply chain strategies as companies and governments adjust to prolonged instability in the Gulf.
“Global shipping routes are being structurally rewired,” Moody’s said. The agency said countries are increasingly turning to non-Gulf suppliers, alternative pipeline routes and regional trade systems to reduce reliance on the Strait.
Higher oil prices now a norm?
Moody’s now expects Brent crude prices to remain between $90 and $110 a barrel for much of this year, significantly above earlier expectations.
For consumers, that could mean prolonged pressure on fuel prices, airfares, transport costs and inflation. “Persistently higher energy prices will lead to increases in inflation and production costs, limiting household purchasing power,” Moody’s said.
The agency warned that even if a ceasefire or political agreement is reached, a return to normal conditions would still take time because shipping backlogs, tanker repositioning and insurance systems would need months to stabilise.
The report also suggested that some changes triggered by the crisis may not reverse at all. “Some structural shifts in supply chain design, risk premiums and defense spending will probably be permanent,” Moody’s said.
Airlines, manufacturing risks
Industries that rely heavily on fuel and transport are among the sectors most exposed if elevated oil prices continue.
Moody’s identified airlines, chemicals and building materials companies as facing the “most acute pressure” because of high operating costs and limited ability to pass rising expenses onto customers.
Consumer sectors including retail, hospitality and manufacturing could also come under strain if households reduce spending in response to higher living costs.
“Airlines, building products and chemicals face the most acute pressure,” Moody’s said. At the same time, some sectors could benefit from the changing environment.
Energy producers outside the Gulf region and aerospace and defence companies are expected to gain from higher oil prices and increased geopolitical tensions.
Asia faces the biggest challenge
The report said Asian economies remain among the most vulnerable because of their dependence on Middle Eastern energy imports.
India was identified as one of the most exposed major economies because around 46 per cent of its crude oil imports come from the Middle East.
Japan and South Korea were also described as highly vulnerable despite holding large emergency reserves, while China could face pressure on industrial profitability even with state-controlled pricing and large stockpiles.
“At sustained Brent prices of $90–$110/bbl, we estimate real GDP growth reductions of 0.2–0.8 percentage point for several major economies,” Moody’s said.
Crisis world may have to adapt to
Perhaps the biggest message from the Moody’s report is that the global economy may no longer be waiting for the Strait of Hormuz crisis to end quickly.
Instead, governments, businesses and investors are increasingly preparing for the possibility that disruption, higher costs and geopolitical risk in one of the world’s most important trade routes could become part of the global economic landscape for the foreseeable future.
GN
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